High-flying Newcastle host West Ham in Saturday's late game, and Jake Osgathorpe is on hand to provide the best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2.5pts Newcastle to win and Under 4.5 Goals at 7/8 (Betway)
0.5pt Joe Willock to score anytime at 15/2 (William Hill)
Everything is going right for Newcastle right now.
They sit third in the Premier League table, and in midweek they booked themselves a date at Wembley for the Carabao Cup final.
I don't expect things to sour this weekend in front of what is sure to be a rocking St. James' Park with a struggling West Ham the visitors, and I'm happy to get the hosts onside here by backing NEWCASTLE TO WIN AND UNDER 4.5 GOALS.
The Magpies have been formidable at home this season, unbeaten in their 10 league games while posting the third best home xG process in the division.
Eddie Howe's side have allowed just 0.96 xGA per game in front of their own fans, keeping seven clean sheets, while racking up a huge 2.43 xGF per game.
Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Newcastle 8/13 | Draw 11/4 | West Ham 19/4
West Ham have struggled for a long while now, and we can't read too much into the victory over an Everton side who were the best 'get-right' game for any struggling team (just ask Wolves and Southampton).
Away from home the Hammers have lost seven of 10, scoring just six times in that process and failing to net in five.
They are likely to be overmatched on Saturday, so a home win seems highly likely, but to boost the price, we are throwing in the Under 4.5 Goals.
Eight of Newcastle's 10 home games have seen four goals or fewer, while all 10 of West Ham's away games have seen Under 4.5 cop.
A longer shot I'm going to chance comes in the goalscorer market, where JOE WILLOCK looks overpriced TO SCORE ANYTIME.
He is deployed at the left-side of a midfield three, but he gets into some really advanced positions down the left, and is expected to do what Sean Longstaff did in midweek and make the late runs into dangerous positions.
This is something he has done regularly this season, with Willock taking at least one shot in 16 of 20 league outings and averaging 0.20 xG/95.
For context, Joelinton - who may play deeper in this game with Bruno Guimaraes suspended - has averaged 0.21 xG/95 and is priced at 17/4 (5.25) compared to Willock's 15/2 (8.5).
Miguel Almiron is available at 18/5 (4.6) to score anytime, yet his xG/95 of 0.29 is only slightly better than Willock's.
He has played an average of 79 minutes per game this season, so should get a decent amount of time to get his customary few chances to land this bet.
Newcastle v West Ham best bets and score prediction
- 2.5pts Newcastle to win and Under 4.5 Goals at 7/8 (Betway)
- 0.5pt Joe Willock to score anytime at 15/2 (William Hill)
Score prediction: Newcastle 2-0 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1630 GMT (02/02/23)
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