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Football betting tips: Sunday best bets
Sunday 14:00
3pts Pisa to beat Salernitana at 17/20 (William Hill)
Pisa vs Salernitana
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 4/5 | Draw 23/10 | Away 3/1
PISA sit second in Serie B having posted 14 league wins in their opening 22 contests. The majority of the damage has been done at their Arena Garibaldi home where Filippo Inzaghi’s outfit have delivered W11-D3-L0 in front of their own supporters. Table-toppers Sassuolo were downed 3-1 here as recently as Boxing Day with the hosts rarely disappointing.
The Nerazzurri have bagged multiple goals in 10 of their 11 games at the Garibaldi and sit second on Expected Points (xP), averaging 2.00 Expected Goals (xG) per-game. Pisa have won the xG battle in nine of 11 home showdowns despite nine of their opponents here being positioned in the top-14. Now bottom-four dwellers Salernitana arrive in Tuscany.
Salernitana have managed a solitary away success – way back in October – and scored just six goals in their 10 road trips, unsurprisingly losing on six occasions. It’s nine defeats in 12 against top-half teams, with the visitors beaten in six of seven against the top-six. Data-wise, they’re ranked fifth bottom on xP and produce the worst xG tally on their travels.
Pisa hold plenty of appeal at 17/20 (1.85) TO WIN.
Saturday selections
Saturday 15:00
2.5pts Celtic to win to nil vs Dundee at 19/20 (William Hill)
2.5pts Sunderland to win to nil vs Plymouth at 11/10 (Boylesports)
Celtic vs Dundee
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 1/11 | Draw 17/2 | Away 18/1
CELTIC are as short as 1/10 (1.10) to pocket maximum points against Dundee with the market making Brendan Rodgers a 91% chance of taking top honours. However, the odds just to 19/20 (1.95) when backing the Bhoys to keep a clean sheet alongside victory – a price that suggests this wager is close to a 50-50 shot despite dominant data in our favour.
Sure, the defending champions may be slightly fatigued after Wednesday night’s Champions League efforts, yet Celtic have still conceded only 11 goals in 23 Scottish Premiership showdowns this season. At Parkhead, the table-toppers have W10-D1-L0 with the hosts seeing this selection pay-out in all 10 of their league triumphs here.
Dundee were fortunate to oust city rivals United in the Scottish Cup on Monday night and have already lost without scoring away at Rangers and Celtic this season. The bottom-half side have generated just 14 Big Chances across their 11 away days thus far, a paltry 0.82 non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) and the third-fewest shots. They’ll be up against it here.
Sunderland vs Plymouth
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 1/4 | Draw 9/2 | Away 19/2
Plymouth’s season is in danger of spiralling out of control. Argyle are rock-bottom of the Championship and six points from safety after suffering an embarrassing 5-0 home thrashing by Burnley on Wednesday night. The Devon outfit are winless since early November (W0-D6-L8) and have produced a series of dire away performances (W0-D3-L11).
The Pilgrims now face a quick turnaround and arduous journey north to face high-flying Sunderland and is a straightforward selection to back the home side TO WIN TO NIL at 11/10 (2.10). The Black Cats are W3-D1-L0 this calendar year, keeping three straight clean sheets, whilst the Wearsiders are W9-D4-L0 at the Stadium of Light, silencing seven opponents.
Plymouth have managed just four shots in each of their last two defeats (without scoring) and are averaging a disastrous 0.40 Expected Goals (xG) average on their travels, managing just 3.79 shots per-game from inside the penalty box and creating only five Big Chances across their 14 away days with 10 of those 14 tussles ending in defeats to nil.
Odds correct at 0930 GMT (23/01/25)
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