Mark O'Haire's football betting tips, best bets and nap: Entertaining affair in Alkmaar
Football betting tips: Sunday tips
2.5pts Over 2.5 goals and BTTS in AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax at 1/1 (Sky Bet)
AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax
- Kick-off time: 15:45 GMT, Sunday
- Home 23/20 | Draw 13/5 | Away 2/1
Ajax’s recent resurgence has run out of steam of late. The Amsterdam giants have picked up a solitary point when heavily favoured against NEC Nijmegen and Heracles, leaving de Godenzonen eight points adrift of third; this weekend, John van't Schip’s strugglers face a tricky trip to fellow out-of-form outfit AZ.
I’m eager to support goals in this game with Ajax’s encounters providing plenty in recent months. The 36-time Dutch champions have recorded only three Eredivisie clean sheets all season and have shipped multiple goals in seven of their past nine showdowns, as well as conceding twice or more in 10 of their last 11 away days across all competitions.
Ajax’s most recent games as guests have concluded 2-3, 4-2, 3-2, 2-3, 3-2, 2-1, 3-4, 2-2, 2-5, 0-2, 3-4, 1-1, 1-3. Those 14 fixtures have returned an enormous 4.43 goals per-game, with 13 paying-out for Both Teams To Score backers and 12 tussles crossing the Over 2.5 Goals barrier – eight of those 14 match-ups even featured a minimum of five strikes.
Considering AZ have silenced only two of their domestic opponents since October, and with both sides in need of maximum points in their quest for European qualification places, another high-scoring shootout could be in the offing and so OVER 2.5 GOALS & BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE has to be on the menu at a backable price this weekend.
Football betting tips: Saturday tips
3pts Salzburg win to nil vs Austria Lustenau at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
2.5pts Over 2.5 goals and BTTS in Barcelona vs Getafe at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
Barcelona vs Getafe
- Kick-off time: 15:15 GMT, Saturday
- Home 2/5 | Draw 19/5 | Away 13/2
There was a time when Getafe were considered Under 2.5 Goals specialists in La Liga. However, Los Azulones have evolved into an entertaining team to follow during Jose Bordalas’ second stint in charge. The capital club have scored in 18 of their last 23 league outings and produced plenty of eye-catching action when on their travels too.
In Getafe’s last five away fixtures, they’ve scored at Villarreal, at Betis, notched twice at Osasuna, netted three goals at Atletico Madrid, as well as Sevilla. Go further back and Bordalas’ boys have bagged twice at Athletic and scored three times when visiting Real Sociedad this season. These days Getafe pose plenty of threat in forward areas.
Since early December, Barcelona have conceded in 10 of 11 La Liga and Champions League contests, shipping multiple goals in five of those fixtures. That includes three when welcoming lowly Granada, five at home to Villarreal, two against rock-bottom Almeria, and four against Girona in the Catalan capital. Defensively, Xavi’s team have been a mess.
I’m therefore keen to support OVER 2.5 GOALS & BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE in Saturday’s showdown. Eight of those past 11 Barca battles have beaten the Over 2.5 line with 10 delivering BTTS pay-outs, whilst Getafe have already seen this selection provide profit in trips to Real Madrid, Atletico, Athletic, Real Sociedad, Osasuna.
Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau
- Kick-off time: 16:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 1/10 | Draw 7/1 | Away 17/1
Perennial Austrian champions Salzburg boast a two-point advantage at the top of the Bundesliga having taken W12-D5-L2 from their opening 19 outings. Gerhard Struber’s group have played out back-to-back draws since returning from the winter break against second-placed Strum Graz and third-placed Linz, though Die Roten Bullen arguably deserved more.
Salzburg cumulatively won the shot count 38-17 and racked up an Expected Goals (xG) output of 3.89 xG to just 1.30 xG across those two 1-1 stalemates against their strongest league opponents. We should therefore expect a muscle-flexing display on Saturday when the consecutive 10-time champions welcome rock-bottom Austria Lustenau to town.
Salzburg understandably top all of the major Austrian Bundesliga metrics this term, which include an especially imposing 76% xG ratio when hosting league action. The hosts are allowing only 0.66 xG per-game in front of their own supporters, as well as conceding an average of just five shots from inside the penalty area, conceding only five home goals.
Lustenau (W1-D3-L15) have been nilled in 13 (68%) of their 19 league dates thus far, including six of nine away days, whilst generating a measly 0.68 xG per-game on their travels. Having already suffered a 4-0 thrashing at home to Salzburg and failing to score in eight of 10 tussles against top-half teams, I’m happy to back SALZBURG WIN TO NIL here.
Odds correct at 0940 GMT (22/02/24)
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