Mark O'Haire's football betting tips, best bets and nap: A BTTS Saturday
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- Mark is -6.23pts for the 23/24 season
Football betting tips: Weekend
3pts C Palace vs Luton - BTTS and both teams 10+ booking points at 7/5 (Sky Bet)
2.5pts Augsburg vs Heidenheim - BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
2.5pts Pisa vs Ternana – Both Teams to score at evens (Sky Bet)
- The above are enhanced prices with a £25 max stake
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Augsburg vs Heidenheim
- Kick-off time: 14:30 GMT, Saturday
- Home 17/20 | Draw 11/4 | Away 29/10
Augsburg charged 12 points clear of the Bundesliga drop-zone last weekend with a sensational 6-0 demolition of rock-bottom Darmstadt, equalling their biggest-ever top-flight victory. Jess Thorup’s side thumped five unanswered goals past their beleaguered opponents in just 29 first-half minutes with captain Ermedin Demirovic in fine form.
Victory gave the Bavarians back-to-back Bundesliga triumphs for the first time since October and included a maiden shutout of the campaign for FCA. Returning to their WWK Arena this weekend, Augsburg will hope to continue their recent run against fellow mid-table outfit Heidenheim, though it’s goals that appeal with both sides impressing in the final-third.
Augsburg have seen 11 of their 12 home tussles produce Both Teams To Score profit, a feat that’s been matched in nine of Heidenheim’s 12 away days; during that 24-game sample, the pair have combined to deliver a solitary shutout, whilst scoring on 21 occasions. I’m therefore happy to back OVER 2.5 GOALS & BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE.
Crystal Palace vs Luton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 3/1 | Draw 14/5 | Away 7/10
I’m expecting entertainment at Selhurst Park on Saturday as Crystal Palace and Luton clash in an intriguing basement battle. BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE appeals having banked in 62% of the Eagles home outings this season with the Hatters following suit in 75% of their away days, yet the market makes appears to underrate the prospect of a goal-heavy clash.
Palace are moving away from their pragmatist past with Oliver Glasner now in-charge. The Austrian tactician has already shifted to a three-at-the-back system, utilising wing-backs and encouraging his side to be more front-foot. With Ebere Eze also back in the fold, the Eagles will expect to enhance their recent record of scoring in 16/18 Premier League outings.
Luton cross the capital looking for their first clean sheet on their travels since promotion. However, the Hatters’ final-third threat has to be highlighted – Rob Edwards’ outfit have gotten on the scoresheet in 22 of 26 overall encounters, grabbing a goal in 10 of their 13 away days thus far. The visitors have produced a series of competitive efforts.
The EPL has seen a tasty 61% of overall showdowns pay-out for BTTS hunters, though the market is offering an eye-catching 4/5 on a repeat here. But we can bolster the odds significantly by backing BOTH TEAMS 10+ BOOKING POINTS – Palace have been carded in 85% of home fixtures with Luton cautioned in 85% of matches.
Pisa vs Ternana
- Kick-off time: 15:15 GMT, Saturday
- Home 17/20 | Draw 12/5 | Away 3/1
Serie B is averaging 2.55 goals per-game in 2023/24 – 56% of fixtures in the Italian second-tier have seen BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE produce profit, a percentage hit-rate that would imply blanket odds around the 4/5. It’s therefore intriguing to see BTTS available at decent price ahead of showdown between Pisa and gung-ho Ternana.
Pisa have scored in 13 of 14 home league outings at their Stadio Romeo Anconetani base this season, 11 of which have paid-out for BTTS backers. Meanwhile, Ternana have notched in 11 of 13 away days, 10 of which have also banked for Both Teams To Score supporters, giving this selection a 21/27 (78%) success-rate in their respective home/away showdowns.
Delve into the performance data and we can see the visitors’ games as guests tend to escalate into highly entertaining affairs with an average 3.05 Expected Goals (xG) per-game, alongside an actual goals per-game average of 3.38. My goals model makes the right price closer to a 3/4 shot.
Odds correct at 1550 GMT (07/03/23)
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