1pt Mansfield to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
Boasting both Sky Bet League Two's most potent attack and its meanest defence, surely this is the year Nigel Clough's Mansfield escape the Football League's basement division and end a wait of more than 20 years for third-tier football.
But despite enjoying such a scintillating season, the Stags only have a five-point cushion to fourth place, meaning automatic promotion is far from assured with just over a month of the campaign to go. They can afford few slip-ups.
Mansfield endured a five-year spell in non-league a decade or so ago - and relegation from the EFL is the fate staring visitors Colchester squarely in the face, outside the bottom two on only goal difference although they have do games in hand.
The appointment of the Cowley brothers has not produced the upturn the U's were hoping for, although they have been picking up points - seven draws in 10 games since they took over in January. Only two defeats, mind - but, then again, only one win.
Mansfield should win this - most of Colchester's positive results since the Cowleys arrived have come against bottom-half sides and the U's have only picked up one point against top-seven teams all season (although that was a draw with Mansfield).
But Colchester have tightened up and this is unlikely to be the cruise that some expect. I think Mansfield's quality will tell but they are likely to have work for it - Colchester certainly are not going to come and open the game up.
Many firms offer correct score group bets and I feel this is the way to go in this one. Specifically the 9/4 on MANSFIELD TO WIN 1-0, 2-0 OR 2-1 with Sky Bet piques my interest.
Yes, the Stags are capable of blasting the opposition away but it takes two to tango and Colchester will surely adopt a cautious approach, fully aware of the goal difference advantage they currently hold over the bottom two (-19, compared to -25 and -28).
Mansfield have shown they can eke out results when required - eight of their past 14 wins have come via those three tipped scorelines - while, equally importantly, six of past Colchester's seven defeats have been via those narrow margins too.
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Mansfield midfielder Stephen Quinn has scored twice in his past five starts, registering 13 shots during that time while his Colchester counterpart Cameron McGeehan averages a shot on target per game, 28 in 27 appearances.
The Stags are a front-foot side and will dominate. They average 7.7 corners and 6.9 shots on target per home game.
Mansfield boss Clough has been mixing his starting XI up, blessed with a range of options, particularly in attack. The Stags' main injury worry is defender Baily Cargill who came off with a tight hamstring in last weekend's 5-1 mauling of Bradford.
Colchester winger Owura Edwards returned after a month out by coming off the bench in the U's 1-1 draw with Walsall and boss Danny Cowley could hand him a spot in the starting XI.
Mansfield Town: Pym; Bowery, Flint, Brunt, Cargill; Boateng, Reed, Quinn; Keillor-Dunn; Swan, Akins
Colchester United: Goodman; Mingi, Dallison-Lisbon, Hall; Anderson, Chilvers, Read, McGeehan, Edwards; Akinde, Ihionvien
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (21/03/24)
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