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Manchester United vs Newcastle betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
- Jake Osgathorpe is +65.51pts in profit for the 2023-24 football season
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Alexander Isak to score anytime at 11/10 (General)
1pt Dan Burn to score anytime at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 37/1
- Newcastle to win
- Alexander Isak to score anytime
- Dan Burn to score anytime
Manchester United's miserable season has only three games remaining, with all three coming against sides in the top half. It couldn't get any worst could it? Well if they lose out, it could be the end for Erik ten Hag. To be fair, if he wins out it could still be the end.
They showed flashes of good in defeat at Arsenal, but ultimately didn't create anywhere near enough to cause problems for the Gunners, which perhaps wasn't a surprise given both the level of opponent and the attacking options the Red Devils had to call upon.
Newcastle are three points above United in the table, and they have bounced back impressively from a disappointing middle period of the campaign to put European football once again within their grasp.
Two wins from their remaining two games definitely secures sixth spot and at the very least a Europa Conference League spot, though that sixth spot could turn into a Europa League berth should Manchester United lose the FA Cup final.
What are the best bets?
United do need to win both remaining matches and some help in order to finish sixth or even seventh themselves, so bad is their goal difference (-4), and with them again set to be without key players, I was very tempted to back an away win at 11/8.
The Magpies have already won at Old Trafford this season in the Carabao Cup, but their overall away record and process is enough of a concern for me to swerve them at the prices - they've won five of 17 away this term, averaging 1.57 xGF and 1.99 xGA per game.
Instead, the 11/10 available for the red-hot ALEXANDER ISAK TO SCORE ANYTIME looks the smart play.
He's unlikely to get the Golden Boot, being five behind Erling Haaland, but he's finishing the season with a flourish, netting eight in his last eight since the international break.
Isak has averaged 1.07 xG per 90 in that time, so is getting an incredible amount of chances in an attack-minded Newcastle side who should cause a vulnerable Manchester United team all sorts of issues.
Ten Hag's side have allowed the fifth most xGA this season, an average of 1.96 per game, and while ever the remain without key defensive personnel they will continue to ship goals.
Burn baby Burn
Given this is a preview involving Manchester United, I have to take a punt on a centre-back to score at a big price due to their set-piece fragility. They are the worst team in the league according to xG conceded from set-plays, and while Newcastle aren't top five for creating, they aren't far off.
DAN BURN TO SCORE ANYTIME looks huge at 16/1, with the Englishman being Newcastle's biggest goal threat among defenders, no surprise given his stature.
He has two goals to his name this season and has an xG per 90 of 0.11. Burn has taken eight shots in his last 10 league appearances, including at least one in all of his last three. He'll get a couple of chances here, so let's hope he takes advantage at a big price.
Team news
Scott McTominay returned at the weekend, but Lisandro Martinez, Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford all missed the defeat against Arsenal. All three could feature at some point here, unless Erik ten Hag wants to keep them wrapped up for the FA Cup final.
Amad Diallo hobbled off in that weekend match, but should be fine to start again here.
Newcastle welcomed back Kieran Trippier from the bench last time out and could feature again, but Callum Wilson and Fabian Schar remain doubts.
Predicted line-up
Man Utd XI: Onana; Wan-Bissaka, Casemiro, Evans, Dalot; Amrabat, Mainoo; Diallo, McTominay, Garnacho; Hojlund
Newcastle XI: Dubravka; Trippier, Krafth, Burn, Hall; Anderson, Guimaraes, Longstaff; Almiron, Isak, Gordon
Match facts
- Manchester United have lost just one of their 28 Premier League home games against Newcastle (W18 D9), going down 1-0 in December 2013 under David Moyes.
- Newcastle United have won each of their last three meetings with Manchester United in all competitions, as many as in their previous 21 beforehand (D4 L14). The last English team to win four in a row against the Red Devils were Manchester City between 2013 and 2014.
- Newcastle have already beaten Manchester United twice in all competitions this season, including a 3-0 win at Old Trafford in the EFL Cup. The last team to win three games against the Red Devils in a campaign were Chelsea in 2012-13, while the Blues were also the last team to beat them twice away from home in a season (2004-05).
- Manchester United have only lost their final home league game in one of the last 16 seasons (W11 D4), going down 2-0 against Cardiff in 2018-19.
- Having only won one of their first 10 away league games this season (D2 L7), Newcastle have since won four of their last seven on the road (L3). The Magpies are looking to win back-to-back away league games for just a second time in 2023-24 (also in Jan/Feb).
- Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 14 midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) home games in the Premier League (W11 D3), with the last visiting side to win at Old Trafford in midweek in the competition being Liverpool in May 2021 (2-4).
- Manchester United have lost nine matches at Old Trafford in all competitions this season; they have never suffered 10 home defeats in a single season before in their history.
- Newcastle’s Eddie Howe has managed 14 away Premier League games against the division’s two Manchester clubs (Man City and Man Utd) without winning any (D2 L12). In the competition’s history, only Steve Bruce (26) has managed more away games in Manchester without ever winning than Howe.
- Manchester United have lost both of their last two Premier League games, with Bruno Fernandes absent for both. Indeed, since the Portuguese international made his debut in the competition, the Red Devils have won 40% of their league games and averaged 1.3 points-per-game when he hasn’t started compared to a 53% win rate and 1.8 points-per-game when he has been in their starting XI.
- 60% of Sean Longstaff’s Premier League goals have been scored this season (6/10), while he has scored in back-to-back appearances in the competition for the first time. Newcastle have never lost a Premier League match in which Longstaff has scored (P9 W6 D3 L0).
Odds correct at 1220 BST (14/05/24)
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