If this was supposed to be the grand occasion when Manchester City re-emerge as a titanic force and in the process shake their rivals into collapse then it could hardly have gone any better: a resounding win courtesy of turning the screw - classic City style – as Arsenal froze.
The 20 minutes that settled Sunday’s Carabao Cup final was a metaphor for the journey City hope to go on and Arsenal dread.
They twisted the knife and then twisted it again, the double whammy from Nico O’Reilly, Pep Guardiola’s performatively wild celebrations, and O’Reilly’s declaration Man City “smell blood” in the title race conspired to make this the perfect final to setup the run-in.
The only problem is that it just doesn’t feel honest.
What is most striking about Man City’s fifth League Cup triumph under Pep Guardiola is that it left the impression of a simple head-to-head in their favour; just another battle in a series of battles against their new rivals, signifying nothing beyond its own glory.
Which is not insignificant. A second consecutive year without silverware would have felt disastrous for Guardiola and probably enough to guarantee he remains for one final year at the Etihad, whereas to become the competition’s most decorated winner perhaps gives him an out.
His new squad, half of whom had never won a trophy under Guardiola, have now begun their journey.
For Man City as much as Arsenal, this year’s EFL Cup was about getting a taste of success and using it as motivation for the future.
But the idea that Man City can use it to power ahead of Arsenal in the remaining eight Premier League games still feels like a stretch.
That Arsenal fans woke up on Monday morning without a fearful sense of the tide turning, that pundits didn’t sound the alarm, is a testament to the fact that Arsenal are no longer plucky upstarts desperate to reach the promise land.
They have already arrived; already carry themselves as Man City’s equals and, therefore, they will not be dragged into psychological warfare by an isolated incident at Wembley.
When we look back upon the 2025/26 season as a whole, that sense has always been there. It has felt like Arsenal’s year for a long time now and, paradoxically, losing this final only seems to have strengthened that argument.
There is no great anguish, no pang of fear. Arsenal remain fully in control of the title race and it just does not feel like Man City can make up all that ground.
In theory they can do it, of course.
Win their game in hand, and beat Arsenal at the Etihad, and the gap is just a single point with five more rounds to play. But this works on the assumption that Man City can be close to perfect over the final two months and nothing over the last two years indicates they can do that.
It helps Arsenal that the Premier League does not resume for three weeks and that before then they kick off April with kind fixture against Southampton in the FA Cup and Sporting CP in the Champions League. Then, they need only beat Bournemouth at the Emirates to open a temporary ten-point gap when Man City travel to Chelsea the following day.
Normal service will resume. Man City, even after Sunday, are the outsiders looking in and the club who appeared to most need that EFL Cup trophy.
Indeed the overriding feeling was not of a tightening at the top but the end of an era, the beginning of a long goodbye. Guardiola’s delight looked like the final actions of a manager who has completed his mission in this country, who is enjoying his swansong.
Guardiola has handed over the baton after all. The only surprise is that it took defeat for Arsenal to bring the new reality into focus.
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