Football betting tips: Manchester derby
2pts Manchester City to win and under 4.5 goals at 6/5 (Sky Bet, Betway)
1pt Under 2.5 goals at 15/8 (Betfair)
0.5pt No Goalscorer at 25/1 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 18/1
- Under 2.5 goals
- Man City to win
- Jack Grealish 2+ tackles
- Grealish 1+ fouls committed
It’s easy to get caught up in the notion that Ruben Amorim's first will be the hardest Manchester derby to predict in living memory.
City’s latest defeat, to Juventus in Turin, stretched their unprecedented slump under Pep Guardiola to one win in 10 matches.
Less than 24 hours later, United needed 62nd and 88th-minute goals from substitute Rasmus Hojlund to beat Czech side Viktoria Plzen.
Neither club is having a particularly good time of it.
But I know who I trust more.
What are the best bets?
The fact doing the rounds on Thursday night was of United ending their 20-month wait for an away European win, a shoehorned, pre-prepared line that caused some far simpler, more useful analysis to be missed.
It was the Red Devils' first away win whatsoever since an August victory at Southampton, the side on track to finish with a record low Premier League points tally.
With so much emphasis placed on the loss of Old Trafford's ‘fear factor’ just how bad United are away from there appears to have slipped by.
Since the last Manchester derby on March 3, only Brentford and Wolves have taken fewer than their 11 points from 13 away league matches.
This would all pale into insignificance had there been a major improvement under Amorim, but there hasn't.
Flattering wins over Bodo/Glimt and Everton were sandwiched by a fortuitous draw at Ipswich and a pair of defeats by Arsenal and Nottingham Forest prior to Thursday night's late escape in Eastern Europe.
Victories over Europa League minnows and a hapless Everton papering over a highly questionable start.
Caught between chasing results, implementing his style of play and assessing the squad, Amorim has contributed to confused, inconsistent performances.
And then there is MANCHESTER CITY.
Guardiola has admitted to questioning himself during his team's struggle for form, although he was also rightly bullish in the aftermath of their midweek defeat, where there were positive signs.
City came out on the wrong side of a tight match (xG: JUV 1.12-1.26 MCI) while Mateo Kovacic and Phil Foden both returned to the matchday squad. It's hoped they'll be fit to start on Sunday.
Guardiola's side went off at 3/10 to win their last home game against fifth-placed Nottingham Forest, a match they strolled to a 3-0 victory in. Here they are considerably longer against a team beaten at home by those very same opponents last weekend.
The 3/5 best price on a home win may be enough for some, but I prefer the 6/5 about MANCHESTER TO WIN AND UNDER 4.5 GOALS instead, capitalising on another market that looks to be considerably overpriced.
UNDER 2.5 GOALS is available at an enormous 15/8 with Betfair, seemingly taking no account for the way in which this game should play out.
Expect a replica of United's 2-0 defeat at Arsenal, with Amorim setting up to frustrate and catch City on the counter attack.
In the first half at the Emirates it worked perfectly, and it was still doing so until Jurrien Timber's 54th-minute header triggered an onslaught of Arsenal corners that United simply couldn't deal with.
While they set up in the Portuguese coach's 3-4-2-1, it was closer in tactic to the FA Cup final win over City that Erik ten Hag masterminded back in May.
Amorim will lean in to this squad's strengths again; only Liverpool and Arsenal have conceded fewer top-flight goals than United this season.
City don't possess that same potency from dead-ball situations, but at the prices should still be backed to squeeze their way past.
However, in a nervy, derby atmosphere between two teams low on confidence, muddling their way through things, taking the 25/1 on offer for NO GOALSCORER is also advised.
It would be the first in this fixture since December 2020.
But given the context, would it really be a huge shock should it happen again?
Team news
City are without Rico Lewis after he was sent off following his equaliser at Crystal Palace last weekend.
Nathan Ake remains out alongside long-term absentees Rodri and Oscar Bobb. John Stones and Manuel Akanji aren't expected to be fit in time, meaning Guardiola must either start with a back three of Kyle Walker, Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiol, or include Jahmai Simpson-Pusey in his XI.
United have an almost fully-fit squad, with only Luke Shaw completely ruled out. Jonny Evans and Victor Lindelof have returned to training, so could be involved.
Predicted line-ups
Man City: Ederson; Walker, Dias, Gvardiol; Gundogan, Kovacic; Silva, De Bruyne, Foden, Grealish; Haaland.
Man Utd: Onana; Mazraoui, De Ligt, Martinez; Diallo, Ugarte, Mainoo, Dalot; Fernandes, Garnacho; Hojlund.
Match facts
- Manchester City have won five of their last six Premier League games against Manchester United (L1), more than they had in their previous 13 (W4 D3 L6).
- Manchester United have lost each of their last three Premier League away games against Man City, conceding 13 goals in the process. They last lost four consecutive league visits to the Citizens between 1952 and 1955.
- Manchester United have lost 20 Premier League games against Man City – only against Arsenal (21) have they lost more in the competition.
- Manchester City have conceded at least twice in seven of their last 11 Premier League games (W4 D3 L4), as many times as they had in their previous 62 in the competition.
- Manchester United have lost both of their last two Premier League games, last losing three in a row within a single season in December 2015 under Louis van Gaal. New manager Ruben Amorim is yet to lose three on the bounce in his top-flight managerial career, with this his 172nd such match across Portugal’s Primeira Liga and England’s Premier League.
- 39% of Man Utd’s goals conceded in the Premier League this season have come from corner situations (7/18), the highest share in the division. So far in 2024, they’ve conceded 15 goals from corners, just three fewer than they did in 2021 (8), 2022 (4) and 2023 (6) combined.
- Manchester United manager Ruben Amorim has already beaten Manchester City this season, with his Sporting CP side winning 4-1 in a UEFA Champions League tie. Only one manager has beaten the reigning Premier League champions with two different sides in a single campaign, with Alan Pardew beating Man City with both Newcastle United and Crystal Palace in 2014-15.
- Erling Haaland has nine goal involvements in just four Premier League appearances against Manchester United (6 goals, 3 assists). It’s already the most goal involvements any Manchester City player has against the Red Devils in the competition.
- Man City’s Phil Foden has scored six goals in his last four Premier League appearances against Manchester United. Only Sergio Agüero (8) has scored more Manchester derby goals for the Citizens in the competition than Foden (6, level with Erling Haaland).
- After registering just two goal involvements (2 assists) in his nine Premier League games under Erik Ten Hag this season, Man Utd’s Bruno Fernandes has had a hand in six in his last six following the Dutchman’s departure (3 goals, 3 assists). The Portuguese has also been involved in five goals in his last six appearances against Man City in all competitions (2 goals, 3 assists), providing an assist in each of the last three.
Odds correct at 0930 GMT (13/12/24)
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