Vincent Kopmany takes his Burnley side to face his former boss Pep Guardiola and Manchester City in the FA Cup. Jake Osgathorpe provides a best bet.
2pts Burnley 6+ shots at 5/6 (bet365)
The first of the FA Cup quarter finals pits the master against one of his many apprentices, and the reigning Premier League champions against the Championship runaway leaders.
Manchester City are heavily fancied to win and advance to the semis, priced at 1/12 to qualify to Burnley's 9/1, but that doesn't mean we can't find some value in what many see as a one-sided contest.
Vincent Kompany's side do deserve respect given they are performing like the Man City of the second tier. They can cause their opponents a few headaches on Saturday.
Both teams to score crossed my mind at 11/8 given the Clarets' exceptional scoring record this season, but at 5/6 we can back the visitors to register 6+ TOTAL SHOTS and that makes huge appeal.
The same bet is as short as 8/15 elsewhere, meaning the 5/6 is excellent value before we even dive into the stats.
Burnley have averaged 13.2 shots per game in the Championship this term, and are a front-foot side who won't play in a different manner when up against one of the best teams in the land.
In fact, they will probably treat this as a Premier League readiness test, to see how far away they are from competing against the top sides ahead of next season.
Manchester City do concede shots, no matter who they are playing against.
Pep's side have allowed an average of 7.5 shots per game in the Premier League this season, and 6.5 at home, so all we need is for them to perform to their average for this bet to win.
The other reason I really like this bet is because Burnley are a team who will shoot from distance. They aren't overly concerned with getting into good positions before pulling the trigger.
In the Championship this season 40% of their total shots have come from outside the area, while 43% of City's shots conceded at home come from range, so this could be a recipe for success in this game.
The clincher for me is that Burnley displayed plenty when losing at Old Trafford to Manchester United in the Carabao Cup, racking up 11 shots in total and actually winning the shots battle 11-10.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1120 GMT (17/03/23)
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