Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Virgil van Dijk 2+ total shots at 9/5 (BetVictor) - min price 5/4
0.75pts Virgil van Dijk 3+ total shots at 13/2 (BetVictor) - min price 4/1
0.5pt Virgil van Dijk 4+ total shots at 16/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 9/1
Agg: Liverpool 0-1 Galatsaray
Kick-off: Wednesday, 20:00 GMT
TV: TNT Sports 1
Live odds, form and stats
Liverpool continue to be a tough team to predict.
Fancied to beat bottom side Wolves in the league - lose. Many fancying them to be upset in the FA Cup by Wolves - emphatic win. Seem trustworthy having been playing well away in Europe - lose to Galatasaray. Expected to win handsomely against happless Tottenham at Anfield - draw.
It makes it hard to confidently proclaim that the Reds will win comfortably on this European night under the lights at Anfield and ultimately overturn the 1-0 first leg deficit, but I think they will.
After all, Galatasaray are one of the Champions League's worst travellers. They have played five away games and lost four, winning only at what's left of Ajax. Their other four trips saw them lose by an aggregate of 11-1 in 90 minutes, and their capitulation against 10-man Juventus in Turin was quite something.
Leading their play-off 5-2 on aggregate heading to Italy, Gala completely buckled. In the first half they conceded nine shots, four on target and 2.23 xG as Juve fought back into the tie. In the second half Gala played against 10 men for the majority of the 45 and still conceded 13 shots and 2.53 xG.
Granted, game state has to be factored in as the Turkish side were aiming to just hold on, but the way they were constantly pummelled by 10 men highlights their shortcomings. In 90 minutes they lost 3-0 and should have been eliminated, with the Italians squandering chances (90 min xG: JUV 4.76 - 1.08 GAL).
Liverpool are capable of doing similar - just ask Qarabag - and so with the tie set up in a similar manner with Galatasaray holding onto a lead and looking to counter, we should see wave after wave of pressure from the hosts and plenty of corners and shots to boot.
Hopefully, VIRGIL VAN DIJK is among those shots, and his price of 9/5 for 2+ TOTAL SHOTS looks massive. The Dutchman has gone shot crazy in home European games this season, taking a whopping 14 in four outings, with this bet landing in all four.
It's no surprise given the number of corners the Reds have won in those games (36 - 9.0 per game) and the fact that European sides aren't very well equipped to deal with the set-piece barrage of the Premier League.
We saw a similar-ish kind of game state when the Reds hosted PSV in the league phase, as they went behind after six minutes and then 56 minutes meaning they were chasing the game for long spells. In that contest they racked up 11 corners and Van Dijk had an eye-watering five shots.
Meanwhile in that aforementioned second leg between Juventus and Galatasaray, Juve defender Federico Gatti had four shots, all from set-pieces, and scored as the Italians were in all-out attack mode.
We could see similar urgency from Liverpool here, meaning ample opportunity for Van Dijk to get his head on some set-pieces, so we'll take the 13/2 for 3+ TOTAL SHOTS too, with this bet landing in three of the four UCL home games.
The 4+ TOTAL SHOTS is 16/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes and we'll finish our ladder there. He's hit this line in his last two UCL home games against PSV and Qarabag, and Galatasaray rank just behind the pair for xG conceded from set-pieces in this competition.
We are taking shots here instead of backing his goalscorer price, as I feel 9/2 for a centre-back is too short. It's seems far more likely that VVD will have multiple shots and fail to score than have one shot and score one goal, such is the difficulty of converting a headed chance under challenge from a set-piece.
Well, now that I've written that, we know what will happen...
Odds correct at 16:50 GMT (16/03/26)
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