Liverpool take on Leicester on Friday night looking to make it four league wins on the spin. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game and selects a best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2.5pts Both Teams to Score at 4/5 (bet365)
1.5pts Darwin Nunez to score anytime at 11/10 (bet365)
We could be in for a bit of a treat on Friday night as Liverpool take on Leicester.
Both teams boast a 100% record for scoring in respective home and away matches this season, with BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE landing in 63% of Liverpool home games and 63% of Leicester away games.
BTTS is the first and most confident selection of this preview, especially at a price of 4/5 with bet365, with some bookies making it as short as 4/6.
The pair's 63% conversion rate of this bet in home/away games this term would suggest a price of closer to 6/10, so taking both sides to hit the net is a value play based on raw numbers alone, but confidence only increases when diving into the underlying numbers.
Liverpool rank as the seventh worst defensive team in the league this season according to xGA per game (1.66), with Leicester 10th worst (1.58), while at home the Reds have shipped 1.43 xGA per game and away from home the Foxes have allowed 1.98 xGA per game - the fifth most in the league.
At the other end of the pitch, Jurgen Klopp's men are the best attacking team in the top flight, with their average at home a huge 2.60 xGF per game. Meanwhile, Leicester are nearly twice as potent when travelling (1.41 xGF per game) than when playing at the King Power (0.74).
All of the above points directly at both teams being in their comfort zones in attack, but highlights their vulnerabilities defensively, meaning we should see chances at both ends.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Friday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Liverpool 2/7 | Draw 19/4 | Leicester 9/1
With goals expected, a dive into the goalscorer markets is the second port of call, and I think there is value in backing the man of the mockery-moment, DARWIN NUNEZ, to convert at least one of the many chances he will get on Friday and SCORE.
You may look at the price of 11/10 and think it should be bigger for a player who has shown in the last two games that he can be a rash finisher, but I'm willing to overlook that and concentrate on the fact that he is consistently getting on the end of chances as opposed to not at all.
If he was barely getting off two shots a game and averaging near 0.3 xG per 95 minutes, then I would be concerned, but the Uruguayan is proving a constant threat and is taking 5.7 shots per 95 while averaging a whopping 0.98 xG per 95.
The important thing to remember when digesting that latter figure is that Nunez doesn't take penalties, so that 0.98 is in fact non-penalty xG per 95, which is extremely elite and just so happens to be league-leading, even topping Erling Haaland (0.81).
The finishing issue is perhaps at the forefront of everyone's mind, but it is worth pointing out that he isn't that far behind is xG, scoring five times in 753 minutes (the equivalent of eight full matches) with his xG total at 7.77.
It has to be seen as a hugely positive thing that he is getting so many chances, and for those suggesting he can't finish his dinner, it's worth noting that Nunez scored 26 times from chances equating to 15.7 xG last season for Benfica.
So, he is enduring a period of negative variance, and sooner of later Nunez will explode with a multitude of goals - maybe in a single game - as long as his process remains the same.
Given his xG/95 average, and Liverpool's xGF per home game average, Nunez should be odds on to score here, so the odds against represents good value.
Liverpool v Leicester best bets and score prediction
- 2.5pts Both Teams to Score at 4/5 (bet365)
- 1.5pts Darwin Nunez to score anytime at 11/10 (bet365)
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 1330 GMT (28/12/22)
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