Liverpool v Crystal Palace tips: Premier League best bets and preview
This weekend's Premier League action concludes at Anfield where Liverpool host Crystal Palace. James Cantrill previews the game, picking out two best bets.
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Football betting tips: Premier League
2.5pts Both Teams to Score at 13/10 (SBK)
0.5pts Crystal Palace Double Chance 4/1 (Sky Bet)
Liverpool are two entirely different entities with either Thiago or Naby Keita operating on the left hand side of their midfield three to what they are without either of them playing.
The left sided slot they occupy plays a crucial role defensively, sitting alongside Fabinho providing extra security out of possession. Without either of these two injury prone players in LCM, Reds games became more chaotic, uncontrolled and problematic particularly against better opponents.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Monday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Liverpool 1/6 | Draw 6/1 | Crystal Palace 12/1
Last season, Thiago only played 45% of Liverpool’s domestic minutes and Keita only played 34%, to put that into perspective Gini Wijnaldum played 86% in his last season at the Reds.
With neither in the side, Liverpool’s games averaged 3.3 goals with both teams to score landing in 66% of those fixtures. With either Thiago or Keita playing on the left of midfield, 52% of Liverpool’s league games saw both sides find the net.
At 13/10, backing BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE is where the value is here as the implied probability of that price is just 43.5%.
Liverpool only dropped points in 10 league games last campaign, staggeringly eight of which came when neither Thiago or Keita were operating on the left side of midfield.
This slot was vacated by the pair in a total of 15 EPL games last campaign. In these fixtures Liverpool's win percentage dropped from 91% to 44.6%, dropping points in 53% of those games which is staggering considering they only dropped points in 9% of their games with Thiago or Keita in left central midfield.
With the pair expected to miss Monday night's clash with CRYSTAL PALACE I think taking the visitors DOUBLE CHANCE at 4/1 is worth a punt.
Aside from the Reds injury woes in the middle of the park, it is worth pointing out that the Eagles boasted an impressive record against the ‘big six’ last campaign.
This bet would have clicked in half of their league fixtures against the big boys, which includes in both matches with title winners Manchester City.
Liverpool v Crystal Palace score prediction and best bets
- 2.5pts Both Teams to Score at 13/10 (SBK)
- 0.5pts Crystal Palace Double Chance 4/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-2 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 25/1)
Odds correct 1200 BST (11/08/22)
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