Football betting tips: League Two play-off final
1.5pts Haji Mnoga to be carded at 2/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Adebola Oluwo to score and be carded at 45/1 (Betfair)
0.5pt Jodi Jones to score and be carded at 11/1 (Betfair)
*All bets settled in 90mins
The League Two play-off final is a tough one to call.
Salford finished the season in fourth with 81 points, Notts County were a point and a place behind them.
The Ammies only conceded 51 times in the league, County 52, the Magpies scored 13 more goals than Monday’s opponents but Salford won both league meetings 2-1.
Unsurprisingly, the match odds to win in 90 minutes are tight with Notts County priced as marginal favourites at 29/20 and Salford 6/4.
Not that I would want to try and call this one but the historical results for League Two’s play-off finals only muddy the waters further.
All the usual clichés for a match of this stature apply. Tight, cagey and full-blooded. A game neither side wants lose.
Looking back from the 2010 final, only five of the 16 games have seen both teams score, only three have gone BTTS and over 2.5 goals and the most common scoreline has been 1-0.
There have been more cards brandished (45) than goals scored (37) across those fixtures with 75% of the games having at least the same number of cards as goals.
Interestingly, for seven of the 37 goals scored across that sample, the goalscorers were also booked.
I know what you are thinking but only two of them were for overzealous celebrating. Adebayo Akinfenwa scored a 90+11th-minute penalty for Wimbledon in 2016 and was carded for taking his top off.
The other was Rotherham’s Ryan Taylor back in 2010 after he scored his second goal of the afternoon and the Millers equaliser just after the hour mark.
This doesn’t include Mendes Gomes' goal and card after he scored what proved to be the winner in the last few minutes of extra time when Morecambe beat Newport 1-0 in 2021.
So, the majority of players who have scored and been carded weren’t carded during the celebrations. In fact, most of them were carded within minutes of their goals which suggests to me the adrenaline takes over.
Anyway, in such a tough contest to call, I think backing a couple of players TO SCORE ANYTIME and TO BE CARDED is the best way in.
At bigger odds, it just feels like less risk for more reward and at 45/1, Salford’s ADEBOLA OLUWO certainly fits the bill.
He’s got five goals this season, a goals per 90 average of 0.15, seven cards and a cards per 90 average of 0.21.
And based on this, quotes of 10/1 to net (Sky Bet) and 15/4 to be booked (bet365) are value as singles.
I’ll also be eagerly waiting Fabio Borini’s introduction - assuming he doesn't start.
The former Sunderland frontman has scored four goals and got four cards in just 623 minutes of league action.
He’ll definitely be worth a punt in-play.
JODI JONES is the standout for Notts County.
He netted eight times in the regular season and picked up six cautions with the combination clicking twice.
Including the play-off fixtures, he has scored six goals and picked up three cards across his last 15 appearances.
Jones was a constant thorn in Chesterfield’s side in the semis, drawing five fouls and a card from his opposite number in the first leg.
HAJI MNOGA should be the man tasked with containing him on Monday after starting both of Salford’s semi-final legs at right-back.
Mnoga was carded 13 times this season (0.69 cards per 90), has a cards per 90 of 0.49 across two league seasons for Salford and a career cards per 90 average of 0.40.
So, although his price TO BE CARDED looks short, it might be worth a punt here.
It's worth noting, bet365’s market includes extra time. I have tipped these bets elsewhere at bigger prices but it is certainly worth considering as this game could go beyond the 90.
And if the circumstances suit - the teams are drawing in the final few minutes - it might be worth throwing a few arrows at players to score and be carded at astronomical prices in-play.
Odds correct at 15:00 BST (21/05/26)
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