League Two betting tips: Outright preview and best bets for 23-24 season
Football betting tips: League Two outright
4pts e.w. Stockport County to win League Two at 6/1 (Sky Bet - 1/5 odds 1,2,3,4)
2pt e.w. MK Dons to win League Two at 20/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes - 1/4 odds 1,2,3)
1pt e.w. Walsall to win League Two at 40/1 (General - 1/4 odds 1,2,3)
1pt e.w. Mo Eisa to be League Two top goalscorer at 22/1 (Sky Bet - 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)
1pt Crewe to be relegated at 6/1 (BetVictor)
- Michael Beardmore recorded a 14pt profit in in his 2022/23 Sky Bet League Two outright preview
Welcome to the crazy world of Sky Bet League Two – where three teams who weren’t even Football League clubs 15 months ago head the promotion market.
Stockport County - National League champions in 2021-22 and beaten League Two play-off finalists last term - sit sandwiched in between newly-promoted pair Wrexham and Notts County at the head of the betting.
Hollywood-owned Wrexham are heavy favourites to win back-to-back titles at a top-priced 7/2 – across the four divisions, only Manchester City (8/13) are shorter to win their respective title.
I may be made to look like a fool here but I just can’t back the Dragons at that price – they will be coming up against players, managers and teams with far more nous than they did in the goal-laden, gung-ho National League.
Do I expect them to challenge? Absolutely. Could they win the title? Totally. Will they be every other club’s cup final and have a massive Deadpool-esque target on their back? 100%.
Notts County are a viable alternative for sure - they have recruited quietly but smartly, have an astute boss in Luke Williams, and should be able to cope with the loss of influential playmaker Ruben Rodrigues to Oxford.
Sky Bet League Two Winner 23/24 odds (via Sky Bet)
- 10/3 - Wrexham
- 6/1 - Stockport
- 15/2 - Notts County
- 11/1 - Gillingham
- 12/1 - Mansfield
- 14/1 - Bradford, MK Dons
- 16/1 - Salford
Odds correct at 1700 (21/07/23)
Who will win Sky Bet League Two?
I fancy the Magpies to finish above Wrexham - with both sides likely in the top-seven mix - but the leap in the quality of opposition week upon week means I'm steering clear of backing either in their first season back in the big time given the odds.
Instead, having watched every League Two team at least once in person last season, and plenty of other times on TV, I’m going with the best side I witnessed – and that is second favourites STOCKPORT COUNTY to get the job done this time around.
The pick is supported by the numbers too – despite finishing fourth on their return to the Football League, the Hatters topped the charts for expected points (xP) - which is a metric that indicates game-to-game supremacy in terms of chances created and conceded.
Indeed, had it not been for a glut of injuries towards the end of the season that severely depleted their attacking options, it's likely they would be preparing for League One football now, rather than League Two.
They have not only retained almost the entire core of that team but somehow managed to snaffle playmaker Nick Powell, one-time Manchester United wonderkid, from two divisions above after his release by Championship side Stoke City.
This is a team used to winning after their National League triumph in 2022, their fourth-placed finish last year and it makes sense to back the Hatters TO WIN LEAGUE TWO.
While all other firms offer each way to three places, Sky Bet are stretching to four spots at 1/5 odds – meaning profit will be returned as long as County finish in the top four, just as they did last season.
Who else will challenge in League Two?
In fairness, there's a long list - the fourth tier is usually the hardest to predict out of all four divisions, chiefly because club size, budgets and player quality are not as disparate as they tend to be in the more predictable higher echelons.
You could make a case for several sides not already mentioned - Gillingham are fourth favourites and finished last season strongly after a change of ownership and subsequent January cash injection. For me, they still have plenty to prove.
Bradford City and Salford City both made the play-offs last term but seem to consistently underachieve at the level given the resources available to them, a statement you could level at Mansfield too.
This could be the year for one or more of that trio but the near-miss syndrome seems to have become so endemic with all three, the Stags in particular, that it would be difficult to put your money behind any with real conviction.
Meanwhile, the clubs relegated from the third tier last season are being either discounted or priced generously - that's perhaps understandable with Accrington, Morecambe and a Forest Green setup in a real state of transition.
However, MK DONS are a different matter. According to xG data, Dons were the unluckiest of the four sides to go down, ending up 21st instead of 18th.
For a club that has reached the heights of the Sky Bet Championship in recent times, demotion back to the fourth tier was a bitter pill to swallow for chairman Pete Winkelman.
He promised lessons would be learned and the appointment of experienced boss Graham Alexander looks a shrewd one.
The Scot has guided previous clubs Fleetwood and Salford to promotions, came within four points of taking Scunthorpe into the Championship and led Motherwell to a fifth-place Scottish Premiership finish and into Europe. He's a successful operator.
Taking all the above into account, odds of 20/1 about MK DONS TO WIN LEAGUE TWO look potentially the best value in the entire outright market. They have everything in place to rebound well from relegation and the price is twice what I'd expect.
Our final pick at the top end of the division, at larger and, admittedly, more speculative odds, is WALSALL at 40/1. The Saddlers have endured a fairly miserable few seasons but showed evidence last term they could soon be bucking that trend.
A 16th-placed finish was unreflective according to the data – the Saddlers should have finished 10th – and that was down to too many draws, a division-high 19. Had they turned just four of those 19 into wins, they'd have ended up ninth.
Many of those draws - 12 to be precise - occurred after on-loan top scorer Danny Johnson returned to parent club Mansfield in January, but Walsall have snapped him up permanently over the summer.
They were in the play-off conversation until he left and his importance cannot be understated. Additionally, Walsall boasted the division’s eighth best defence last term and seem to have filled the odd hole left by summer departures with smart recruitment.
The big question mark is long-time coach but first-time head coach Mat Sadler but prices of 40/1 TO WIN LEAGUE TWO – certainly when taken each way – look a bit long. Of the clubs in the middle of the market they look to have the biggest upside.
Indeed, it could pay to spread stakes around this section of the market if you prefer longer shots - Swindon, Doncaster (both 25s) and improving Grimsby (33s) all merit consideration but we can't back everyone and, at 40s, Walsall pique interest more.
Who will be relegated from League Two?
We picked a winner in the relegation market with Hartlepool at 11/2 last season and the team that sticks out at a slightly longer price this term is CREWE ALEXANDRA TO BE RELEGATED at 6/1.
The Railwaymen finished 13th last season but that placing masked their problems – going by the underlying data they should have finished nine places lower.
Dan Agyei was comfortably their highest scorer with 16 and they have lost him to promoted Leyton Orient while several of the nine sides who finished below them but stayed up, have strengthened.
Last season saw Rochdale’s long stay in the Football League come to an end and it’s not difficult to envisage Crewe’s 102-year EFL status suffering a similar fate.
This is not a straightforward market - it rarely is, with only two relegation places available, so small stakes are advised. Crawley and Harrogate are favourites to go down, and both will likely struggle, but the Alex appeal more at almost double the price.
Sky Bet League Two relegation 23/24 odds (via Sky Bet)
- 10/3 - Crawley, Harrogate
- 9/2 - Colchester, Morecambe
- 11/2 - Crewe
- 6/1 - Barrow
- 15/2 - AFC Wimbledon, Newport, Sutton
Odds correct at 1700 (21/07/23)
Who will be League Two's top goalscorer?
Lastly, let's delve into the top goalscorer betting where it's little surprise to see Wrexham's Paul Mullin and Notts County's Macaulay Langstaff head the market after netting 38 and 42 goals respectively in their promotion-winning campaigns.
Mullin is the rightful favourite here, having topped the League Two scoring charts with Cambridge in 2020-21 before joining Wrexham, but he looks skinny at a top-priced 13/2 in such a multi-horse race.
Langstaff's goal share at Meadow Lane could be eaten into by new Magpies signing David McGoldrick - and we also have to take into account the gulf in quality of defences between League Two and the National League.
Bradford's Andy Cook, last year's winner, will have a job on to match his 2022-23 tally of 28 - and while Walsall's Johnson tempts at 25/1, all things considered, I believe MK Dons' MO EISA is the man to back to be LEAGUE TWO TOP SCORER here.
There are a number of reasons to fancy Eisa's chances, not least because he is clearly Dons' first-choice striker and will very much bear the burden in front of goal, as opposed to other clubs where you feel goals will be split between strikers.
The last time he played in League Two, the six-footer netted 23 league goals for Cheltenham and has since enjoyed three double-figure campaigns in League One, including last term when he scored 14 times - even in a relegation season.
The change in management should also suit Eisa: new boss Alexander's teams play attacking football and his previous clubs - Fleetwood, Scunthorpe and Salford - were all regularly near the top of the goals scored column during his tenures.
That combined makes the 22/1 available on EISA TO BE LEAGUE TWO TOP SCORER worth a play at each way odds.
Sky Bet League Two 2023-24 Outright best bets
- 4pts e.w. Stockport County to win League Two at 6/1 (Sky Bet - 1/5 odds 1,2,3,4)
- 2pt e.w. MK Dons to win League Two at 20/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes - 1/4 odds 1,2,3)
- 1pt e.w. Walsall to win League Two at 40/1 (General - 1/4 odds 1,2,3)
- 1pt e.w. Mo Eisa to be League Two top goalscorer at 22/1 (Sky Bet - 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)
- 1pt Crewe to be relegated at 6/1 (BetVictor)
Odds correct at 1700 (21/07/23)
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