Football betting tips: EFL
1pt Omar Sowunmi to be carded at 11/2 (bet365)
1pt Myles Hippolyte to be carded at 7/2 (bet365)
1pt Steve Seddon to be carded at 5/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Sowunmi, Hippolyte and Seddon card treble at 125/1 (bet365)
League One takes centre-stage on Monday as Bromley host Wimbledon in a south London derby.
Both these clubs are expected to struggle this campaign. Andy Woodman’s side were ante-post favourites for relegation but have been replaced at the top of the betting by the Dons, who are generally odds-on at the time of writing.
The Ravens made a dream start to the campaign, beating Barnsley 1-0 at Oakwell in a typically scrappy game.
The underlying data would have you believe Bromley edged it but the hosts created enough chances to at least get a draw, having twice as many shots on target as Bromley.
Nonetheless, Woodman was purring after that result - and rightly so. This was the Ravens' first game at the lofty heights of League One and they’d stuck to the basics which had seen them win two promotions in three seasons.
They made 25 blocks, attempted 39 tackles and completed 56 clearances, with their gaffer lauding the team's fitness as a ‘superpower’ after the win.
The Ravens followed that up with a 1-1 draw with Cambridge in another typically tight game but this is the point where it started to unravel.
Sheffield Wednesday put seven past them at Hillsborough followed by a 5-0 thrashing at home by Leyton Orient.
Those results really took the gloss off Bromley’s unbeaten start. The stats paint a concerning picture as well.
Bromley top the charts for saves per match (6.8), goals conceded (13), expected goals difference (-3.6), shots conceded per match (20.25) and shots on target conceded per match (10).
But strip it back, Bromley have always defied the data, they have four points from four games and start the weekend in 19th, level on points with Wimbledon.
And this is the sort of game they’ll have earmarked for three points.
Johnnie Jackson’s side have done their best work at home, beating Wigan and sharing the spoils with Reading with two clean sheets to boot. But their opponents combined to generate 4.24 worth of xG to Wimbledon's 1.58 in those two games.
On the road, they’ve not won a point, losing by an aggregate score of 7-1 at Huddersfield and Burton.
Interestingly, Burton were a shorter price to win in midweek than Bromley are on Monday.
It’s almost enough to tempt me into the 6/4 about a home win, this one just looks like too tight of a contest to call, and with Bromley draw no bet generally a touch short at 4/6, these markets are probably bet avoided.
Besides, there’s some better value to be had in the player card market.
Lewis Sandoe is the referee, this will only be the second League One game he has taken charge of, but across his career he’s averaged 4.17 cards per game.
Bromley centre-back OMAR SOWUNMI looks a touch big at 11/2 TO BE CARDED.
He’s picked up one caution this season and with a cards per 90 average of 0.17, the price on offer is probably half a point too big. Wimbledon have also drawn cards from opposition centre-backs in each of their last three league games.
For the visitors, MYLES HIPPOLYTE's price TO BE CARDED is a point too big as well.
He’s already had his name taken twice this season, picked up seven last term and has a cards per 90 average of 0.29. Plus, opposition central midfielders have picked up cards in three of Bromley’s four games.
STEVE SEDDON is another player worth backing TO BE CARDED at 5/1. Based on his cards per 90 average (0.24), I was expecting 7/2 here.
Naturally, I’ll be taking a shot at the CARD TREBLE at 125/1 just in case everything goes to plan.
Odds correct at 12:30 BST (04/09/26)
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