Kai Havertz replacing Romelu Lukaku as Chelsea main striker
When March began, Kai Havertz had scored as many goals in Champions League and Club World Cup finals as in the Premier League since 28 May. Two, to be precise.
‘Big-game Kai’ wasn’t every-game Kai. He was the supposed superstar forward who rubbed shoulders with the defenders. He was trailing Thiago Silva for Premier League goals this season. He was level with Trevoh Chalobah.
Much changed in nine days and three games. Havertz trebled his total for the season, from two to six. He produced his most consistent run of fine form, even if it arguably started in the Champions League first leg against Lille and then the Carabao Cup final.
He benefited from the shift in the pecking order. He was installed as the first-choice false nine, with Romelu Lukaku relegated to the bench.
Becoming the main striker
Havertz has became more potent. His four goals have come from nine shots, seven of them on target. His seasonal averages are 2.55 shots per 90 minutes and 1.10 on target, so there is a major improvement, especially in accuracy. He has had three shots on target against both Norwich and Newcastle: before then, he had only done that once all season, against Southampton in the Carabao Cup.
In particular, the quality of his chance is better. His xG per 90 in the last three games is 0.86. Before then, it was 0.33, behind Ross Barkley, Timo Werner, Christian Pulisic and Lukaku at Stamford Bridge.
Over players who have played at least 150 minutes in the Premier League since the start of March, only Ivan Toney (1.56) has a better xG per 90. Only Toney (five) has more goals or a higher xG (3.15 to Havertz’s 2.58).
Remove the Brentford forward’s three penalties and Havertz stands apart. The player with the next highest xG is Raphinha, on 1.83, followed by Jean-Philippe Mateta (1.49).
There is an effect on the team. It could be explained by having fixtures against three bottom-half teams but Chelsea have scored eight times in three league matches, whereas they had only scored seven in the previous six.
They had an xG of 1.76 in the 2-2 draw against Liverpool on 2 January; after that, it did not top 1.25 in the Premier League until it was 1.96 and 1.93 at Turf Moor and Carrow Road respectively.
More than just goals
Havertz has been the finisher, but not just the finisher.
He had his highest number of touches this season at Norwich, 61, and 60, albeit in 120 minutes, against Liverpool at Wembley.
If the obvious comparison is with Lukaku’s seven-touch display against Crystal Palace, the Belgian’s highest total this season is 45 and he has only twice had more than 33. In contrast, Havertz’s last six games have brought 50, 46, 60, 40, 61 and 38 respectively.
The German’s 46 attempted passes at Norwich was more than twice the number Lukaku has mustered in a game for Chelsea; his best is 22. Havertz is likelier to keep the ball, too: he completed 90 percent of his passes against Newcastle.
His dribbling ability brings another dimension: his 10 progressive carries at Carrow Road was his highest number of the season, whereas Lukaku’s best is seven. He brings more off the ball: Lukaku has only made more than 11 pressures three times this season whereas Havertz made 21 against Lille, 15 at Norwich and 18 versus Newcastle.
Return to Leverkusen levels
Havertz has also been more creative of late. He made five key passes against Liverpool. He made nine shot-creating actions at Norwich, four more than in any other match this season. It is far up on his seasonal average of 2.48.
It was all the more notable as this remains his least creative season, in terms of fashioning chances: his 2.78 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes last season was far down on his 4.29 in his final year at Bayer Leverkusen, when he often played as a false nine. He is still far behind Hakim Ziyech (4.38) and Mason Mount (3.83) but has now gone ahead of Lukaku.
There are other statistical measures of his influence. His two highest Infogol ratings of the season against Burnley (9.02) and Norwich (9.83) may have been against teams that look as though they could be relegated, but these were the sorts of fixtures Havertz has not tended to dominate or decide.
If it feels remarkable that 40 percent of his league goals for Chelsea came within the space of nine days, many of his finest moments for the club came in other competitions, and not just finals. Only six of his first 16 goals for the Blues were in the Premier League. But now he has drawn level with Lukaku as their top scorer this season, with 11. And in another respect, he has moved far ahead of him.
There is no doubt now who is in Thomas Tuchel’s strongest side.
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