- Jake's 26/27 Predictions: Staked 15.8pts | Returned 8.86pts | P/L -6.94pts | ROI -43%
Football betting tips: Premier League
14:00 Sunday - Chelsea vs Brighton
2.5pts Maxim De Cuyper to create 2+ shots at 4/5 (Sky Bet) - min price 8/13
0.5pt Maxim De Cuyper to create 3+ shots at 23/10 (Paddy Power) - min price 11/8
1.25pt Cole Palmer and Maxim De Cuyper to both create 2+ shots at 2/1 (Sky Bet) - min price 13/10
0.25pt Cole Palmer and Maxim De Cuyper to both create 3+ shots at 9/1 (Paddy Power) - min price 6/1
14:00 Sunday - Leeds vs Brentford
1.5pts Under 2.5 goals at 10/11 (General)
14:00 Sunday - Sunderland vs Fulham
1pts Gonzalo Garcia to score anytime at 13/5 (bet365) - min price 15/8
16:30 Sunday - Man Utd vs Ipswich
2pts Abdul Fatawu to win 2+ fouls at 5/4 (bet365) - min price 8/11
Chelsea vs Brighton
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
This game should be a whole lot of fun. Chelsea looked dangerously good in attack on Monday against Fulham but very gettable defensively, with goalkeeper Robert Sanchez not filling a suspect backline with much confidence.
Brighton thrashed Aston Villa 4-0 in a swashbuckling display and hit Tromsø for the same number in midweek to book their spot in the Conference League proper, with the Seagulls seemingly purring out of the gate this season. They will play on the front foot here which should mean an end-to-end game with plenty of chances and goals.
The bet that catches my eye though is the 4/5 about MAXIM DE CUYPER TO CREATE 2+ SHOTS which looks utterly massive for quite a few reasons.
The first and most obvious one is that he is playing as an out-and-out left-winger this season as opposed to left-back, meaning he gets the ball in much more advanced areas.
Secondly, he has landed this bet in both starts so far this term.
Thirdly, he averaged 2.04 chances created last season despite playing as a full-back for nearly all of the campaign.
And finally he looks to be on in-swinging corners, taking five in his two starts and, with Brighton having a real set-piece threat given the height of their centre-backs, that is a bonus for this bet.
This market does offer the Super Sub concession too which is another big plus for us, but I'd expect De Cuyper to have 2+ wrapped up before any substitution.
We also have to take the 3+ CHANCES CREATED too at 23/10 given everything listed above and for how end-to-end this game could be. Super Sub may be needed for this if De Cuyper is withdrawn as he has been in his two starts, but his replacement in both - Ibrahim Osman - has created one chance in each after coming on.
I'll also combine DE CUYPER 2+ SHOTS CREATED with COLE PALMER 2+ SHOTS CREATED for a 2/1 shot that looks way too big. Palmer is 8/11 for just two created himself which looks too big itself as a single, but we'll combine value upon value for a nice double.
Palmer grabbed an assist on Monday and created three chances for his teammates, while in midweek he created five chances against Luton in the Carabao Cup. Barring a dip last season (1.10 chances created per 90) when he was in and out of a team that was in total disarray, Palmer has always been a creator.
In 24/25 he averaged 2.51 shots created per 90 in the league and it was 2.47 per 90 the year before, so with the signs being there that he's back to those levels, we have to back him as well in a wide open game.
For a bigger swing we'll also take both players TO CREATE 3+ SHOTS at 17/2, with the bookies offering this market all including the Super Sub concession.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 16:10 BST (28/08/26)
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Leeds vs Brentford
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Both Leeds and Brentford have made excellent starts to the season. Leeds have won twice, both away at Nottingham Forest, without conceding and the Bees have won both of their games and scored nine goals in the process.
These two sides look like proper European contenders. Well built, well organised and tough to beat. Like last week's game involving Leeds, which was settled by a last minute free-kick, this could be another where two teams of similar level cancel each other out.
Leeds' success at the back end of last season, and the opening throes of this campaign have come thanks to a solid defensive base. Ever since switching to a back five at the end of November, Leeds have conceded just 31 goals in 25 league games and allowed 1.36 xGA per game, ranking sixth-best on both metrics.
They nullified Nottingham Forest last week (0.66 xG) and are capable of doing the same to Brentford, though going forward they aren't overly exciting. I want to lean into that defensive solidity and chance UNDER 2.5 GOALS at 10/11.
Both of the meetings last season came after Leeds' switch to the back five, and both went under with a 1-1 at the Gtech and a goalless draw at Elland Road. Across the two meetings there was a combined xG total of just 3.2 xG, highlighting how few and far between the good chances were.
Score prediction: Leeds 1-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 16:10 BST (28/08/26)
Sunderland vs Fulham
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Anyone who watched Monday Night Football and thought afterwards, 'Fulham could be in trouble this season', must've watched a different game to me. Yes they were porous defensively in conceding three goals, but let's not forget they were playing against one of the best teams in the league.
I thought they held their own impressively against a Chelsea side I have high hopes for this season. Compare that to Sunderland who were deservedly beaten on the road against a newly promoted side and I'd say there is more cause for concern around the Black Cats.
Ipswich let Sunderland have the ball which is the sort of game Regis Le Bris' side doesn't want. They'd prefer to sit in, defend and fight before springing, which means this game could be one that suits, but I've been drawn in by the price about Fulham's new number nine TO SCORE ANYTIME.
GONZALO GARCIA is a fantastic signing, I'm confident in saying he's an upgrade on what they had last season. Watching him for Real Madrid, his movement and knack for getting himself in the right position, his anticipation for where the ball will be is top level.
We saw that for his goal against Chelsea, muscling in the wrong side of the defender, waiting and hoping for Robert Sanchez to spill it in his direction. He followed that goal with a much more dynamic strike against Wimbledon in midweek, and the Spaniard has hit the ground running.
Two in two for @FulhamFC's Gonzalo García! 🔥#EFL | #CarabaoCup pic.twitter.com/d9SF7Gb1UE
— Carabao Cup (@Carabao_Cup) August 27, 2026
We are getting 13/5 for him to notch again here which is simply too big. Garcia was leading the line for Real Madrid at the Club World Cup a year ago and scooped the top scorer gong, and while he was warming the bench for Los Blancos for most of last season, he still scored six times in the league (0.57 per 90) and averaged an excellent 0.51 xG per 90 which highlights his ability to get into good scoring positions.
Fulham's attack looked dangerous enough to me against Chelsea, and the two groups of players are more or less identical from those that played last season when the Cottagers won both games and scored three at the Stadium of Light. Their starting striker, Raul Jimenez, netted three against the Black Cats in two outings.
Some things have changed, namely the manager of Fulham, but they should still have more than enough to create good chances for their number nine, who doesn't need a second invitation to get on the scoresheet.
Score prediction: Sunderland 1-2 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 16:10 BST (28/08/26)
Manchester United vs Ipswich
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
This already feels must-win for Manchester United, or at the very least a must-play-well game after last week's poor performance. They should bounce back at Old Trafford but it won't be straightforward as Ipswich will sit back and play hard to beat, looking to spring on the counter attack.
ABDUL FATAWU will be one of their outlets and the pacy winger will be tasked with getting his team up the pitch and giving them some respite. That could well come in the form of winning free-kicks to slow the momentum of the home side, and the 5/4 about him TO WIN 2+ FOULS appeals here.
The Ghanaian was fouled three times last week against Sunderland and won 1.82 fouls per 90 in the Championship last season and 3.12 in the Premier League the season before.
The price on offer here simply looks too big, especially as it includes Super Sub, with most firms 4/7 or shorter for this one. Luke Shaw looks an ideal sparring partner too having committed 1.36 fouls per 90 last season.
Score prediction: Manchester United 3-1 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 16:10 BST (28/08/26)
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