- Jake's 26/27 Predictions: Staked 15.8pts | Returned 8.86pts | P/L -6.94pts | ROI -43%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Saturday 17:30 - Tottenham vs Newcastle
1pt Lewis Hall to commit 2+ fouls at 29/10 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 15/8
Tottenham vs Newcastle
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
All the pre-season hope surrounding Tottenham was washed away emphatically by Brentford last weekend, with Spurs utterly outplayed and looking once again like a relegation candidate.
The shipped nearly 4.0 xG at the Gtech and were an Igor Thiago missed penalty away from a 4-0 defeat. You have to hope they will be better in this game against a Newcastle team who were seconds away from beating Liverpool last weekend, but the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has been the exact opposite of a fortress.
Yes, they thrashed Championship side Charlton in the Carabao Cup in midweek, but that was only their eighth win in 37 home matches against English sides. Focus on just league games and Spurs have managed just five wins in 33.
Their attack should be more potent here given the additions of Savio and Omar Marmoush from Manchester City, who both have to start surely - while their defence will be bolstered by the returns of Micky van de Ven and Pedro Porro, with Destiny Udogie also fit to come in at left-back.
That's enough to have me swerving Newcastle at the prices - 2/1 seems a tad short - with my attentions turned to LEWIS HALL.
The Newcastle left-back has caught the eye early on this season for the fact he has committed a lot of fouls, and important ones too.
Hall committed two fouls against Liverpool and three against West Brom in midweek, conceding a penalty in both contests. This weekend he'll be up against the tricky Savio and an overlapping Porro so could again get himself tangled up.
Savio drew 1.73 fouls per 90 across all competitions last season while at City and is priced at 4/6 to win 2+ fouls here which to me makes the near 3/1 on offer for Hall TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS worth some interest. Some firms go as short as even money but there are plenty at 2/1 and above.
This game will be played in transition, similar to Newcastle's match against Liverpool, which will mean a lot of fast paced attacking football, especially from the home team, increasing the likelihood of Hall getting caught in 1v1 situations.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 12:10 BST (28/08/26)
Football betting tips: Premier League
Saturday 12:30 - Liverpool vs N Forest
1.25pts Dominik Szoboszlai to score or assist at 13/10 (Paddy Power) - min price 11/10
0.25pts Milos Kerkez 1+ shot on target outside the box at 25/1 (Paddy Power) - min price 12/1
Saturday 15:00
1pt Thierno Barry to score anytime in Bournemouth vs Everton at 11/4 (Sky Bet) - min price 2/1
1.5pts Under 2.5 goals in Coventry vs Hull at 19/20 (Ladbrokes)
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Andoni Iraola's first home league game as Liverpool boss sees him welcome Oliver Glasner's Nottingham Forest. My first thought was 'I've got to back Forest' here given my pre-season thoughts around both clubs, but the head-to-head between the managers and Forest's start to the season has put me off.
Iraola is unbeaten in five meetings with Glasner (2W 3D) while the pair were at Bournemouth and Crystal Palace respectively, and the Tricky Trees have looked poor in both matches against Leeds, creating little. That is a concern but Liverpool's own porous defence could kickstart Forest.
I want to focus on Liverpool's DOMINIK SZOBOSZLAI here, with the Liverpool midfielder a lovely price at 13/10 TO SCORE OR ASSIST.
The Hungarian scored from the penalty spot last weekend to salvage a point for his team, with him seemingly taking penalty duties since Mohamed Salah departed. Alexander Isak was on the pitch too for that late penalty.
As well as scoring, he created three chances for his teammates and racked up 0.27 expected assists in what was a typically all-action performance. Playing at home he will have even more license to get forward and join in with his sides' attacks, not that he needs any extra encouragement.
He finished last season with 25 goal involvements in all competitions, a figure that was the most among his Liverpool teammates, and that was despite playing a lot of games at right-back. The fact he takes corners and free-kicks is a huge plus for this bet too.
At the prices I just couldn't resist a small bet on MILOS KERKEZ 1+ SHOT ON TARGET OUTSIDE THE BOX, which is 25/1 with Paddy Power but as short as 9/1 in places. I'd have it much closer to the 9s.
Setting the scene, Iraola allows and encourages his sides to shoot if they get the chance, with Bournemouth ranking fifth for shots last season averaging 13.8 per game. Liverpool took a whopping 27 shots last week against Newcastle, granted the game state dictated they go for it, but I think the all-out-attack mantra of Iraola would have meant they get close to that tally even if they were leading.
Kerkez isn't the most prolific of shooters but did fire two last weekend, both from outside the box with one hitting the target. Last season in Arne Slot's more withdrawn and controlled system he didn't do anywhere near as much shooting as we'd like, but luckily for us we have data from when Kerkez played under Iraola at Bournemouth.
In his final season before moving to Liverpool, Kerkez averaged 0.51 shots per 90 and 0.21 shots from outside the box per 90. The season before he averaged 0.73 shots per 90 and 0.31 shots from outside the box per 90. Across 60 starts in those two seasons this bet landed three times, include his most recent outing under Iraola and it's four in 61.
That gives us a 7% hit-rate which would imply blanket odds of around 13/1 before we factor in that Kerkez now plays in a better team and will be at home this weekend against a side who will likely allow plenty of attempts. At the price it looks worth a swing.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-2 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 12:10 BST (28/08/26)
Bournemouth vs Everton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Everton were iffy to start their game against Crystal Palace last weekend and should have gone, but the Toffees were much improved in the second half to run out 2-0 winners. It was the opposite for Bournemouth, who started well and finished poorly in their defeat at Manchester City.
The Cherries highlighted once again their vulnerabilities from set-pieces, conceding 1.04 xG from dead-ball situations at the Etihad. Last season they conceded the joint-second most goals (18) from set-pieces and the joint-third most xG (14.1 - 0.37 per game).
Everton scored from a set-piece last weekend and have generally been a dangerous side from dead-balls given their size so that could be one avenue for success for the Toffees here. The bet for me at the prices though is to back in-form THIERNO BARRY TO SCORE ANYTIME.
He was the man who nodded home from the set-piece last weekend and followed it up with a hat-trick in midweek against Preston. The Frenchman, who moved from Villarreal last summer, now looks settled and ready for a full Premier League season which is excellent news for Everton.
Last season, despite being in and out of the team, he still scored eight times and averaged a healthy 0.38 xG per 90. At that rate, playing for a big priced team away from home I'd expect to see odds of 2/1 for the starting striker, before we factor in his start to the season.
Yet, we are getting a huge 11/4 here about Barry who looks full of confidence after scoring four in his first two outings. Bournemouth are still finding their feet under new manager Marco Rose, but with their high-press could leave space for the pacy Barry, while the tall striker could also hurt them from set-pieces.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 12:10 BST (28/08/26)
Coventry vs Hull
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
This feels like a big game for Coventry already. Yes, they lost to the reigning champions and there is no reason to panic, but the fact that Hull and Ipswich got off to winning starts and the Sky Blues travel to the Etihad next weekend makes this a game they will feel they have to win.
The pair played out two goalless draws in the Championship last season and Hull were a tough match-up for the eventual title winners, with the underlying data in both games suggesting they were close contests.
Hull did a great job of limiting the quality of chance that Coventry created, conceding 24 shots equating to 1.90 xG across the two games, and the Tigers gave Manchester United the same treatment in victory last weekend, allowing 21 shots equating to 1.83 xG (0.09 xG per shot).
This could be a similarly tight contest and I'm surprised that UNDER 2.5 GOALS isn't the favourite in the market, priced at 19/20, and it's surely worth a go.
Score prediction: Coventry 1-0 Hull (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 12:10 BST (28/08/26)
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