Free Premier League betting tips: Infogol's unders/overs including Chelsea v Leeds
Using expected goals (xG) data, Infogol’s Jake Osgathorpe picks out the best value bets in the overs/unders markets from across the weekend’s Premier League and Championship action.
Infogol is a revolutionary football product, which harnesses Opta data to power an expected goals model. Expected Goals quantifies the quality of a scoring opportunity, allocating each chance a probability of it finding the back of the net.
The xG metric can be used to assess teams and their performances, and it also helps to give an insight into future prospects, which in turn helps with betting.
Chelsea vs Leeds
- Saturday, 20:00
A cracking looking game on Saturday evening.
Chelsea will have been happy with another clean sheet last weekend against Tottenham, though they didn’t threaten that much in attack in their goalless draw (xG: CHE 0.9-0.2 TOT).
Frank Lampard’s side appear to have found a good balance of late, being able to turn the screw against so called ‘lesser’ teams, while be able to tighten up against the league’s elite.
Leeds are a team that fall in between those two categories, as they have the capabilities to really hurt Chelsea if they aren’t careful.
Overall, the Blues haven’t yet created at a level we saw last season, averaging just 1.7 xGF per game compared to 2.2 in 19/20, but defensively they are better (0.9 xGA per game compared to 1.2 in 19/20).
Leeds were simply breathtaking at Goodison Park last weekend, winning 1-0 in a game they could have scored many more (xG: EVE 1.5 – 3.4 LEE).
The way in which they move the ball is exceptional, and they are more than capable of catching Chelsea out here, so I am expecting a reserved approach from the Blues, which should lead to a low-scoring game.
Leeds' over/under record this season in the league is 50/50, and usually against the better teams they go under, and the Infogol model calculates a decent chunk of value in siding with under 2.5 here at a decent price.
Best bet: Under 2.5 Goals at 6/4
West Brom v Crystal Palace
- Sunday, 12:00
West Brom got their first win of the Premier League season at the tenth time of asking, beating Sheffield United 1-0 at the Hawthorns, though they were hugely fortunate to win that game.
They conceded chances equating to 3.3 xGA to the Blades, their second worst defensive display of the season based on xG, but thanks to some Sam Johnstone heroics and some poor finishing, they came away with an invaluable three points.
While they put up their best attacking performance of the season in that game (2.0 xGF), on average this season they are racking up 0.7 xGF per game, and I expect them to get back to their struggles here.
Crystal Palace were poor against Newcastle last Friday, creating little in the absence of Wilfried Zaha (0.7 xGF) before crumbling late (1.6 xGA).
Their process this season is that of a team expected to be in and around the relegation zone (1.2 xGF, 1.7 xGA per game), sitting 17th in our xG table based on xPoints.
Here we have two of the worst attacking teams in the Premier League going head to head, with neither wanting to lose, so under 2.5 is the obvious play, and even at a short price, it represents value.
Best bet: Under 2.5 Goals at 8/13
Liverpool v Wolves
- Sunday, 19:15
VAR was the big talking point surrounding Liverpool’s 1-1 draw with Brighton last weekend, but ultimately, the reigning champions didn’t do enough to warrant the three points.
Jurgen Klopp’s side struggled to create in that game despite starting Diogo Jota, Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah, mustering a measly 0.3 xGF at the Amex, their worst attacking display of the league season so far, and by a long way.
Defensively they weren’t bad from a non-penalty perspective against Brighton (0.6 non-pen xGA), and overall have dealt with their many defensive absences well, which bodes well for the rest of the season.
Wolves picked up an excellent win at the Emirates last Sunday, with their switch to back four seeing them create plenty of chances yet again.
Since that switch, Nuno’s side have racked up 1.9 xGF against Southampton and 2.3 at Arsenal, suggesting that they are posing a much greater attacking threat than when playing with a back five.
That makes sense, but they did look susceptible as a result in both games, meaning they must be extremely wary heading to Anfield, where they have been competitive in recent years.
It will be interesting to see what approach Wolves take at Anfield, but I think we could be in for a cagey game of few chances, with under 2.5 goals the way I’m playing this one.
Best bet: Under 2.5 Goals at Evens
Brighton v Southampton
- Monday, 20:00
It has been a good few weeks for Brighton, beating Aston Villa before winning a late point against Liverpool last weekend, a point that was fully deserved.
They are still only four points clear of the relegation zone, but their expected position of fifth is a better reflection of just how good Graham Potter’s side have been this season.
The underlying numbers they have posted through 10 matches have been excellent (1.6 xGF, 1.2 xGA per game), and deserve even more credit given they have already played Chelsea, Manchester United, Tottenham and Liverpool.
Southampton saw their unbeaten run come to a crushing end last weekend, blowing a 2-0 half time lead at home to Manchester United to lose 3-2, though that result was fully deserved based on expected goals (xG: SOU 0.5 – 2.8 MUN).
That loss was coming for the Saints, who had been fortunate to win very tight games previously, scoring from low-probability chances to earn victories. That way of playing is unsustainable.
Process-wise, they rank as the 14th best team in the Premier League (1.1 xGF, 1.4 xGA per game), but this game could suit their high-press, as Brighton look to play risk-reward football.
I can see both teams creating plenty of chances on Monday night, which will hopefully lead to a high-scoring game, and the over 2.5 goals is a value play according to Infogol’s calculations.
Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at Evens
Odds correct at 1145 GMT (03/12/20)
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