Football betting tips: Play-offs
2pts Over 2.5 Millwall cards at 19/10 (Paddy Power, Sky Bet)
1pt Over 4.5 Millwall cards at 14/1 (bet365)
There's been plenty of interesting storylines worth highlighting in the latest edition of the Sky Bet Championship - Hull making the play-offs is certainly one of them.
I, like many others, predicted them for a season of relegation struggle. While it's easy to ridicule that suggestion now, we have to remember the situation the Tigers found themselves in over the summer.
Late payments saw them placed under a transfer embargo which prevented them from paying a fee to make a signing. Combine this with the appointment of the relatively unknown Sergej Jakirović as head coach and the right elements were all there for a campaign in which they're trying to fight off the bottom three.
And yet they managed to build something. The free agent market delivered Semi Ajayi and Oli McBurnie with others in to bulk up the squad, while the loan market brought Joe Gelhardt, John Lundstram and Lewis Koumas.
The underlying data paints a different picture about their campaign but luck can only really be used for a smaller sample size than 46 games.
It's the defensive numbers which suggest they shouldn't be involved in the play-offs but then only Coventry (30) scored first in more games than Hull (26) this season. At home, they've taken the lead in 65% of their contests - again, only the Sky Blues with a higher figure.
Millwall's involvement here is less of a surprise and it's testament to their season that they may hold some disappointment in not being promoted automatically, even if they were never truly in the driving seat for it. Over the final weeks of the season, they were certainly in the mix.
It's an intriguing tie this is that both sides may well actually prefer the away leg. Millwall topped the away standings with 41 points gained from their 23 games while Hull were joint-fifth for points returned (35).
That's somewhat shown by them exchanging 3-1 away wins across their two meetings. Although all of this is not exactly surprising when we consider how many they scored through counter attacks across the season.
Another area in which they 'excelled' was fouls. Millwall topped the charts with an average of 12.8 per game while Hull were sixth on 11.4. A total of 23 came in the previous contest (15 for Millwall), with six yellows on display.
Alex Neil's side can be card magnets on the road, with the 19/10 on MILLWALL OVER 2.5 CARDS the best bet for the contest, alongside a smaller stakes play on OVER 4.5 at 14/1.
They ranked 12th for yellows received but the clear majority came in away games - 64% of cards gained being away from the Den.
That average fouls figure of 12.8 jumps up to 14.6 away. In fact, that number is second in the entire EFL in terms of away games - only Gillingham's 15.0 sits higher.
There's the element of wanting to frustrate a home crowd, alongside Hull's strength on the counter attack offering the potential for fouls to stop them breaking forward.
While Hull often score first, the strength of Millwall's form on the road means they could also be leading and protecting it. The flip side being that they're chasing an equaliser and overstep the mark.
Referee Gavin Ward may not be the strictest in the division, but the involvement of these two sides should be enough to force him into action.
A low-scoring draw wouldn't be a surprise but with some uncertainty on the result, cards feels the better route in this one.
Odds correct at 13:30 BST (06/05/26)
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