Football tips, predictions and best bets: Premier League, Sky Bet Championship, League One and League Two for Saturday 20/1/24
Football betting tips: Saturday best bets
1.5pts West Brom to score 2+ goals vs Norwich at 11/8 (General)
1pt Harvey Rodgers to score anytime in Harrogate vs Grimsby at 25/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Jake Cooper to score anytime in QPR vs Millwall at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Bristol Rovers to beat Blackpool at 13/8 (General)
QPR vs Millwall
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 6/4 | Draw 11/5 | Away 19/10
James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt)
If at first you don't succeed, try, try and fail again.
That’s the thinking here where I am hoping Millwall are more successful than Watford were in their attempt to exploit Queens Park Rangers glaring weakness; their set piece defending.
The Hornets only had one shot on target from dead ball situations last Sunday, I am hoping it wasn't a not a sign of Rangers improvement but just a blip.
Under Martí Cifuentes, 29% of the 124 shots his side have conceded have come from set pieces as have nine of the 16 goals.
Millwall are the best set play side in the division, racking up an xG 11.66.
Although he is yet to score this term, JAKE COOPER’s PRICE TO SCORE ANYTIME looks huge. The Lion’s centre back is 22/1 with Sky Bet but is as short as 7/1 with other firms. He has had 25 shots and generated an xG of 1.61 this term.
Cooper has scored 21 times across the last six seasons in the second tier (goals per 90 of 0.08) so 23/2 would’ve been apt on Saturday afternoon.
In the reverse, five of the Lions 13 shots came via deal ball situations.
Odds correct at 0920 GMT (19/01/24)
Norwich vs West Brom
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 7/4 | Draw 12/5 | Away 6/4
Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff)
I remain unconvinced by Norwich, despite the fact they have been picking up points.
As a unit, it's just not there for me, with certain positive results gained as a result of individual quality delivering when needed.
Rather than take an win, I'll settle on the 11/8 available on WEST BROM TO SCORE 2+ GOALS.
The Canaries have failed to beat any side currently sitting in the top eight of the division. Not only that, but they've been conceding goals too.
Six of those nine contests have seen their opponents score at least twice, although the Baggies could only manage a 1-0 win at the Hawthorns. However, they created significantly better opportunities and should have had a few.
The Baggies scored two at Coventry and two at Watford, while also hitting four past Blackburn in their last outing. The value comes in backing their attack for a good afternoon.
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (19/01/24)
Bristol Rovers vs Blackpool
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 6/4 | Draw 23/10 | Away 8/5
Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff)
An intriguing tie from Sky Bet League One this, although Bristol Rovers' recent form has been a concern and damaging to the potential outside chance they had of sneaking play-off involvement at the end of the season.
Blackpool secured victory when these sides met recently, but the appeal comes in taking BRISTOL ROVERS TO WIN this time around.
That contest between the two sides before Christmas was an even one, despite the scoreline suggesting otherwise, with Rovers playing their part across the 90 minutes.
What does make me interested in this bet is their ability to beat the more possession-focused sides in the division since Matt Taylor's arrival.
We're dealing with a small sample size over the context of a season, but they have beaten Bolton, Charlton and Portsmouth already, with the competitive game against Blackpool another positive sign despite the outcome.
Defeat to Wycombe and a draw to Cheltenham suggests vulnerability to direct teams - that shouldn't be an issue on Saturday.
Odds correct at 1045 GMT (19/01/24)
Harrogate vs Grimsby
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 11/8 | Draw 12/5 | Away 7/4
Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff)
Good luck predicting what the hell is about to happen in a game involving Grimsby Town.
They beat Salford 3-0 in their final game of 2023, hammered 6-1 by Walsall in the first of 2024 and then followed it up with a 5-5 draw against Notts County last time out.
Even with Harrogate's strong form throwing them into play-off contention, I'm staying well clear of the results market here.
Instead, you can get 25/1 on HARVEY RODGERS SCORING ANYTIME, which is a bet worth consideration given Harrogate's problems at set-piece situations.
No side has conceded more shots from free-kicks and corners this season; no side has conceded more goals.
Forest Green only had four shots in a pitiful performance last time out, but one of those was by a centre-back. Both Morecambe defenders had a shot in the recent encounter - Jacob Bedeau netted a late equaliser.
The same applied to Tranmere, with Tom Davies striking the second. Accrington's Brad Hills had three shots. All of these examples have been across Harrogate's last five games in the league.
Grimsby aren't prolific from set-pieces but they should have chances given the opponents. Rodgers has also had a shot in four of his last five games.
Odds correct at 1120 GMT (19/01/24)
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