Football tips, predictions and best bets: Premier League, Sky Bet Championship, Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga 17/03/24
Football betting tips: Sunday best bets
1.5pts BTTS 'no' in Inter vs Napoli at evens (General)
1pt Under 2.5 Goals in Atletico vs Barcelona at 13/10 (Betfair)
1pt Andreas Christensen to be carded in Atletico vs Barcelona at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
Already advised:
1pt Leon Bailey 1+ assists in West Ham vs Aston Villa at 4/1 (Unibet)
1.5pts Patrick Bamford 2+ shots on target in Leeds vs Millwall at 5/4 (Betfair, Paddys)
1pt Frankfurt or draw (Double chance) vs Dortmund at 11/8 (William Hill)
Inter vs Napoli
- Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 11/20 | Draw 16/5 | Away 19/4
Both Inter and Napoli were eliminated from the Champions League in midweek, both in Spain. After the disappointment, it's back to league action, with the Serie A title looking like a formality for the Milanese side, while reigning the champions Napoli could miss out on European football altogether this term.
Inter's dominance over the rest of the Italian top flight can't be understated. They have won 24 and lost just one of their 28 league games this season, incredibly conceding just 13 times, and it's that solid defence that makes the even money available about BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 'NO' appeal here.
Simeone Inzaghi's side have won 12 of 14 at home, allowing seven goals and keeping nine clean sheets, while conceding just 0.75 xGA per game at San Siro.
That puts into context just how solid this Inter team are, so despite Napoli boasting some excellent individuals in attack, it's going to be difficult for the visitors to cause too many issues here.
What's more, Inter's home record against the best sides is astonishing. They have played six of the current top eight, winning five of those matches and keeping clean sheets in four of them. Their underlying process in such games reads 2.61 xGF and just 0.63 xGA per game!
Atletico vs Barcelona
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: ITV4
- Home 13/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 19/10
It was a good week for both Atletico Madrid and Barcelona, as both qualified for the Champions League quarter-finals and both on home soil, so neither team has had to travel in the build up to this game.
Simply this clash sees unstoppable force taking on an immovable object. Atletico are unbeaten at home in the league this season, Barca unbeaten away. Something's got to give - or does it? The draw is available at 14/5 for anyone who likes a fence sit, and it looks to be a serious runner.
Instead, I'm going to take UNDER 2.5 GOALS at a generous 13/10 in a game that pits two of the best defences in the land against one another.
Diego Simeone's side have shipped just 13 goals in 14 home games this season, allowing 0.88 xGA per game at the Wanda, while Barca have conceded 15 in their 13 road games, leading the league with 0.97 xGA per away game.
Both sides offer a decent attacking threat, especially with Antoine Griezmann back for Atleti, but both Simone and Xavi will be well aware of this and I could see defences coming out on top in a cagey encounter, similar to what we saw from Barca at fifth-placed Bilbao a few weeks back.
My colleague James Cantrill - Jimmy the Punt to you cool kids - nailed ANDREAS CHRISTENSEN TO BE CARDED in midweek at a huge 15/2, spotting that he had been playing as a holding midfielder amidst a Barcelona midfield injury crisis, and that angle is well worth exploiting again as the bookies don't seem to have yet reacted.
He is available at 6/1 this weekend which again looks monstrous given the stats and the fact he's playing further up the field and is more involved in the play. His last eight starts have come in midfield, and after his booking in midweek, he has now picked up four cards in his last six appearances.
His tackle in midweek to get a yellow was a shocker, stretching and lunging, exactly what you would expect from a defender who's not used to playing in midfield, and given Atleti have quick tricky players like Griezmann and Correa who like floating in the spaces Christensen will take up, the Dane could well see yellow again in what could be a full-blooded affair.
The reverse game finished 1-0 to Barcelona and there were a total of nine yellow cards, so no love lost between the two, and the referee for this game Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez is a cracking appointment, averaging 5.4 cards per game this season and dishing a whopping 10 cards the last time he refereed Barcelona.
West Ham vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
- Home 13/8 | Draw 11/4 | Away 29/20
Top-four hopefuls Aston Villa are sweating on the fitness of star striker Ollie Watkins after his midweek withdrawal in the Europa Conference League thumping of Ajax.
Even if the England striker is absent, though, Unai Emery's side have plenty of players capable of filling the void in the final third with Moussa Diaby and Jhon Duran candidates to replace Watkins.
Whomever plays up front can usually rely on excellent service and that is in no small part down to LEON BAILEY.
The Jamaica winger already has eight assists to his name in the league this season - and only Wolves' Pedro Neto has a better assists-per-90 ratio than Bailey, who is basically averaging an assist every other game.
Despite those figures, he's a tasty 4/1 for 1+ ASSISTS against a West Ham side whose defensive record is bottom-half material, having conceded the sixth-most goals from open play in the Premier League.
The Hammers have shipped 10 goals in their past three home league games and Bailey will be licking his lips at the prospects of goals and/or assists. He's more invitingly priced for the latter than the former although 3/1 to net anytime is worth a look too.
BuildABet @ 55/1
- Bailey 1+ assists
- Cresswell to be shown a card
- BTTS in second half
- 20+ Villa booking points
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Bailey's pace and trickery could cause issues for recently-returned West Ham left-back Aaron Cresswell, who picked up a yellow card in the Europa League frying of Freiburg on Thursday night.
Villa have a crazy record for goals at both ends in the second half of games, more than 54% of their Premier League matches featuring goals for each side after the interval, while they have had at least 20 booking points in six of their last seven.
Odds correct 1330 GMT (15/03/24)
Leeds vs Millwall
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Football
- Home 1/3 | Draw 4/1 | Away 15/2
PATRICK BAMFORD is a man on fire at the moment, scoring seven goals in his past 10 games to lead Leeds' seemingly ceaseless march towards promotion back to the Premier League.
Across that same 10-match run, he's recorded 16 efforts on target. Indeed, across the season, Bamford - primarily used as a substitute until reclaiming his starting XI spot in January - is averaging a shot on target every 47 minutes.
And of those 16 recent attempts on target, 11 have come in the six games of that run that have been played at Elland Road.
It's therefore well worth backing the 5/4 on offer for the forward to have 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET against visitors Millwall. It is St Patrick's Day after all.
The Lions have improved since Neil Harris' return to the dugout but still allowed Southampton to have 14 shots against them in his first game back - anything approaching that should see Bamford achieve the required mark here.
Bamford should start - he did so in nine games of that recent 10-match spell - but if he's left on the bench, Paddy Power will refund your stake.
BuildABet @66/1
- Bamford to score a header
- Meslier 4+ saves
- Millwall most booking points
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Patrick Bamford has scored two headers during his recent goal burst, while Leeds have conceded chances to their opponents despite going 12 unbeaten in the league - Illan Meslier has been forced into 17 saves across their past four games.
Millwall's disciplinary record is the fourth worst in the Championship, while Leeds top the fair play standings.
Odds correct 1100 GMT (15/03/24)
Dortmund vs Frankfurt
- Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Football (Youtube)
- Home 3/5 | Draw 10/3 | Away 4/1
Dortmund booked their place in the Champions League quarter-finals in midweek, but the fact that they played in Europe in midweek is a concern ahead of a clash against an in-form Frankfurt.
Die Adler have lost just one of their last 10 Bundesliga games, winning five including upsetting RB Leipzig in Leipzig, to climb into the European places and they head to Signal Iduna Park just seven points behind their fourth-placed opponents.
Frankfurt's strong run of form is enough to take a look at FRANKFURT OR DRAW in the double chance market, but it becomes a solid betting angle when we assess how Dortmund have dealt with midweek European matches this season.
Edin Terzić's side have really struggled following clashes on the continent, winning just two of their seven league matches that followed a midweek Champions League outing, likely due to injuries and a small squad. Interestingly, the two they won were the first two occasions, and the worst opponents they have faced in such a situation (Union Berlin and Wolfsburg).
The other five matches all came against top half teams and BVB failed to win any of them, which doesn't bode well ahead of welcoming an in-form Frankfurt side who have had a midweek week off.
Dortmund's home form isn't spectacular either, winning just seven of 12 and conceding 18, and they are without Jadon Sancho (injured), Sebastien Haller (injured) and Marcel Sabitzer (suspended) for this weekend's clash, so I really like Frankfurt's chances of getting something on Sunday, just as they have done in nine of their 13 away matches.
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