Football tips, predictions and best bets: Premier League, Championship, League One, League Two 13/04/24
Football betting tips: Saturday best bets
2pts Rayan Ait-Nouri 2+ total shots N Forest vs Wolves at 13/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Rayan Ait-Nouri to score anytime in N Forest vs Wolves at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Watford or draw (double chance) vs Southampton at 2/1 (General)
1pt Under 1.5 Goals in Gillingham v Barrow at 12/5 (Betfair)
1.5pts BTTS 'No' in Salford v Bradford at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
Already advised:
1pt Crysencio Summerville to score anytime in Leeds vs Blackburn at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
Nottingham Forest vs Wolves
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 11/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 23/10
RAYAN AIT-NOURI went 33 appearances without scoring a goal, something must've happened to him in March because he has found the net three times in his last five appearances and registered an assist.
Gary O’Neil does look to be playing him in a more advanced position and the Algerian’s attacking output has increased drastically, he’s notched up 14 shots and seven shots on target in his last five starts.
At 13/10, his price to have 2+ SHOTS is worth a punt, a bet that has clicked in all bar one of his recent appearances.
I also think the chunky price about the same player TO SCORE ANYTIME appeals, Nottingham Forest have only kept one clean sheet since Boxing Day.
Southampton vs Watford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 4/11 | Draw 17/4 | Away 13/2
Tom Cleverley has made a great start to his managerial career.
He has been in the Watford hot-seat for five games and hasn't yet lost, taking seven points from a possible 15. Although the points haul doesn’t look the best, it cannot be scoffed at considering the Hornets have squared off with Leeds, West Brom and Ipswich over that period.
The underlying data suggests Watford have been a little fortunate, outscoring their xG and conceding fewer than their xGA.
I think this is worth ignoring.
The Hornets limited Leeds, West Brom and Ipswich to less than 1.2 xG in each of the games.
WATFORD TO OR DRAW in the DOUBLE CHANCE market is the bet.
Odds correct at 0940 BST (11/04/24)
Gillingham vs Barrow
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 8/5 | Draw 11/5 | Away 13/8
Priestfield Stadium has not been the place to go for goals for quite some time now.
The Gills stunk out Sky Bet League Two last season with their home games averaging a division-low 1.78 goals.
Barrow are not renowned for thrillers either - last season 21 of their 46 games featured UNDER 1.5 GOALS. That's a whopping 46% of their matches.
Little has changed this term. Gillingham's home matches are again averaging the lowest in the division, 1.95 goals, while Barrow rank lowly on such metrics too.
It's no surprise that Under 2.5 Goals is odds-on as a result - but if you take another goal off, Under 1.5 is a very inviting 12/5. Both defences rank in the division's top-four for xGA (Expected Goals Against) and for clean sheets (14 apiece).
Salford vs Bradford
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 11/8 | Draw 5/2 | Away 17/10
First things first. This bet is completely based on Bradford.
The mid-table Bantams have blown so hot and cold this season that it's ridiculous and that is reflected in their recent BTTS stats - of their past 28 games, only eight have seen both teams score.
Simplified further, in 20 of those 28, Bradford have mostly either lost to nil or won to nil (with two goalless draws thrown in too).
When they go ahead, they don't tend to concede. In those aforementioned 28 games, they have kept 14 clean sheets. Of the 14 times they have scored first, they've won to nil 12 times.
However, if they concede first, they can throw in the towel, failing to score in six of 12 such occasions in that 28-game run.
Those stats make the 11/8 for BTTS 'NO' jump out for the trip to Salford. It's far preferable to the 8/15 on the opposite.
Leeds vs Blackburn
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Football
- Home 1/3 | Draw 17/4 | Away 8/1
Leeds have only won one of their last four and with their next opponents Blackburn hovering dangerously close to the drop, the points are not a guarantee on Saturday.
Although his side's form may be faltering, CRYSENCIO SUMMERVILLE’s goalscoring form is not.
The Dutchman has netted 17 league goals this term, setting up a further eight and has only failed to have at least one shot on one occasion, at Deepdale on Boxing Day.
Considering Summerville has a goals per 90 average of 0.48 and takes penalties, the 6/4 for him TO SCORE ANYTIME on Saturday afternoon appeals.
BuildABet @ 40/1
- Crysencio Summerville to score anytime
- Ilia Gruev to be shown a card
- Kyle McFadzean to be shown a card
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Given the ramifications this clash will have at both ends of the table, cards should be expected. Referee James Bell has been known to flash them averaging over four a game.
Ilia Gruev is worth combining with veteran defender Kyle McFadzean, the pair have 16 cards between them this season.
Odds correct at 1440 BST (11/04/24)
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