Football tips, predictions and best bets: Europa League 18/04/24
Football betting tips: Thursday best bets
1pt Leandro Paredes to be carded in Roma vs Milan at 15/8 (Betfair)
1pt Samuel Gigot to be carded in Marseille vs Benfica at 31/10 (BetVictor)
Roma vs Milan (agg 1-0)
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Thursday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 4
- Home 9/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 7/5
This tie is extremely finely poised after Roma, who were underdogs to qualify, won 1-0 in Milan last week. That was a great result for Daniele De Rossi's side, and for Sporting Life readers, who will know that we are on I Giallorossi to win the whole tournament at 16/1.
For that reason, and the fact the main match markets look well priced, I'm going to focus on CARDS. Here we have two card friendly teams, a great refereeing appointment and high-stakes, a cracking recipe.
The man in the middle is Szymon Marciniak, and he's averaged 4.2 cards per game this season. However, that average jumps up greatly when looking at his matches in European club competitions, to 5.8! He's dished five cards in all of his outings.
One player that immediately stood out in the betting is LEANDRO PAREDES TO BE CARDED, available at a best price 15/8 which looks a cracking bet - most other firms have him at 11/8 or shorter which is where I expected his price to be.
The Argentine has picked up 15 cards in total this season, but is averaging 0.42 cards per 90 minutes which would give us a blanket price of around that 11/8 mark.
With Roma defending a lead we should expect a plenty of cynical fouls, some timewasting and a physical approach, which is basically Paredes in a nutshell.
Marseille vs Benfica (agg 1-2)
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Thursday
- TV channel: TNT Sports (Red button)
- Home 13/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 19/10
As with the above tie, cards should flow in this second leg as well. We've two sides who are happy to dip into the dark arts, and with so much at stake, the appointment of Felix Zwayer is a cracking one for card punters.
He's dished 5.83 cards per game on the continent this season and could be a very busy man on Thursday.
Marseille's league position (9th) only adds to the importance of this game and competition is for them, with it looking extremely unlikely they will be able to qualify for Europe through Ligue 1.
We can therefore expect a really intense and fired up atmosphere at the Stade Vélodrome. That will most certainly feed onto the pitch.
From a betting perspective, Marseille captain SAMUEL GIGOT TO BE CARDED was the selection that stood out at 31/10.
The centre back has collected nine yellows and a red to his name this season, meaning a cards per 90 average of 0.38, which means I was expecting a price around 15/8.
The state of the tie is in our favour for this bet too, with Marseille having to go for broke at some point, meaning we could get a stretched game and a dangerous Benfica in transition which would make Gigot extremely vulnerable and ripe for a classic 'cynical foul' yellow for hacking someone down on the break.
Add in the increased stakes and tension, and his price looks generous.
Odds correct at 1700 (17/04/24)
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