Free betting tips: FA Cup fourth round replays on Tuesday February 5
There's games in the FA Cup on Tuesday night with the fourth round replays. Tom Carnduff has two best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Jamille Matt to score anytime in Newport County v Middlesbrough at 3/1
2pts Adama Traore to score anytime in Wolves v Shrewsbury at 49/20
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Newport County v Middlesbrough
Tuesday night's live TV game comes from Rodney Parade as Sky Bet League Two outfit Newport County welcome Middlesbrough.
County have developed a reputation as 'giant killers' in this competition in recent seasons, beating the likes of Leeds and Leicester, and although the fourth round has put them against Middlesbrough, they will still be eager for victory.
The Championship fixture list might play into the hands of Newport here, with Boro's great away win at West Brom being followed by a home tie against automatic promotion hopefuls Leeds on Saturday.
Speaking about their upcoming games, Boro boss Tony Pulis stated: "It is unfortunate really, that the FA Cup is placed in between so many important games, but that's the way the fixtures go now.
"If you look at it, you've got the Premier League, the Champions League and the FA Cup is below that."
We can expect a fairly similar line-up from the meeting at the Riverside, although Middlesbrough's current available numbers in the centre of defence means that they can't shuffle things around too much.
It's a game that Newport will clearly be up for. Their home form has left a lot to be desired, but as they have highlighted in recent rounds already, they have an ability to disregard that and rise to the occasion when required.
One bet worth considering is the 3/1 available on Jamille Matt scoring anytime. The forward played the full 90 minutes of the first leg and has found the net across the competitions for County.
Matt has 15 goals in all competitions this season, three of which have come in this competition, and scored an early goal to put his side into the lead when they beat Leicester in round three.
His ability in the air could tilt this game in Newport's direction. Middlesbrough are a dominant side with the ball of the ground with their centre-backs enjoying plenty of success in aerial duels.
However, around 45% of Matt's league goals this season have come from headers. He is capable of beating defenders to the ball when it's a lofted pass or cross, and if he doesn't score as a direct result of one, there's a real opportunity that he will find a teammate for an assist.
We're backing the 3/1 general price for a goal in this game, although the 9/1 with Sky Bet for a headed goal from the Newport striker may also be worth a small play.
Best bet: Jamille Matt to score anytime at 3/1
Opta facts
- Newport County are winless in their three previous meetings with Middlesbrough in all competitions (D1 L2), losing their only such home meeting 0-1 in November 1986.
- This will be Middlesbrough’s first away game in the FA Cup since a 0-2 loss at Arsenal in February 2015, ending a run of nine consecutive games at the Riverside in the competition.
- Middlesbrough have progressed from 22 of their last 24 FA Cup ties against sides from a lower division.
- Newport County are looking to reach the FA Cup fifth round for only the second time (also 1948-49). They’ve lost just one of their last six home FA Cup games against sides from the top two tiers (W3 D2).
- Middlesbrough had 19 shots against Newport in the first meeting, with Lewis Wing having a hand in 10 of them (5 shots, 5 chances created).
Wolves v Shrewsbury
Wolves demonstrated their character in the previous fixture between these two, coming from 2-0 down to earn themselves a replay.
That puts them as the firm favourites in this contest. Sky Bet's 2/9 is the best price you can currently find on a home victory, which highlights how they are expected to glide through this one with little issue.
Salop have proven that they are no pushovers though. They came from 2-0 down in the latter stages of their clash against Stoke to win 3-2 and book their spot in the fourth round.
Even with changes, you'd expect the Premier League club to find their way through this one. One player worth considering when it comes to the betting is Adama Traore, with some bookmakers offering odds better than 2/1 on a goal anytime.
The £18m summer signing has been limited in terms of appearances this season, the majority of his showings coming from the bench, which should set him up for another Cup start here.
His pace is often problematic for most full-backs, but it'll be a huge ask of a League One standard defence to be able to keep him quiet. Despite those appearances from the bench, he is able to get shots on goal and scored their winner away at West Ham.
There are often questions surrounding his end product, with his pace the most eye-catching part of his game, but his direct involvement in 17 goals last season for Middlesbrough shows why that assumption that he will waste opportunities is often wrong.
In a game like this, we should see Traore line-up in a more central role. With Raul Jimenez unlikely to be risked it will create that chance for the natural winger to play as a striker, which will only increase his chances of a goal.
Games like this are always difficult for real value in the outright markets. Over 2.5 goals is a best price of 8/13 while we've already discussed Wolves' short price for victory.
One avenue to consider in the corner handicap with Wolves expected to be on the front foot throughout. Wolves managed five more corners than Town in their first meeting in Shropshire, and even money is available on Wolves -4 at Molineux.
Best bet: Adama Traore to score anytime at 49/20
Opta facts
- The previous FA Cup meeting between Wolves and Shrewsbury also went to a replay, with Wolves triumphing in the quarter-final in 1978-79.
- Three of the five previous meetings between Wolves and Shrewsbury at Molineux have ended level – Shrewsbury won a league game 1-0 in April 1985, while Wolves won a League Cup match 6-1 in September 1991.
- Wolves have reached the FA Cup fifth round just once in the last 10 seasons, doing so in the 2016-17 campaign.
- Shrewsbury have lost on all five occasions they’ve taken a top-flight side to a replay in the FA Cup, most recently against West Ham in the third round last season.
- Shrewsbury have reached the FA Cup fifth round in just one of the last 27 seasons, doing so in 2015-16.
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