England v Wales preview: Betting preview, stats, team news & videos ahead of international friendly at Wembley
England host Wales with plenty of issues to sort out at the start of an international triple-header. We look at those and the betting.
England v Wales
- Thursday 8pm | ITV
- Match Odds: Home 1/3 | Draw 4/1 | Away 8/1
England play at Wembley for the first time this year as they tackle Wales in a game that probably is more of a warm-up than a full-blooded Home International.
It's part of a triple-header for both sides with Nations League games on October 11 and 14, when England will play host to Belgium and Denmark while Wales face the Republic of Ireland and Bulgaria.
Gareth Southgate has given first senior call-ups to the in-form Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Leicester forward Harvey Barnes and gifted Arsenal youngster Bukayo Saka.
Ryan Giggs is without Gareth Bale because of a knee injury while Aaron Ramsey, Hal Robson-Kanu and Joe Allen are all missing.
Daniel James is also suffering with illness, but Giggs says that it is not coronavirus related and all the Wales squad has returned negative tests.
Betting preview
It's always a minefield in these friendly games, but perhaps having three games coming up with the next two being the competitive ones will actually help matters, as if Southgate wants a look at his new players then now's the time to do just that.
On form, you'd have to think Calvert-Lewin and Jack Grealish deserve to be given a shot, while Conor Coady is likely to play after doing the pre-match press conference alongisde Southgate.
After the performances of Joe Gomez and Harry Maguire at the weekend that's not a centre back partnership that screams clean sheet right now.
Just three of Wales' last 15 games have gone over 2.5 goals, and the 11/10 on that happening again here appeals with the visitors without Bale and Ramsey, two of their most creative players, while the Three Lions have kept five clean sheets on the bounce.
The only worry is that the flurry of expected changes ends up with defensive lapses creating chances, and in that case then the likes of Calvert-Lewin or Grealish should have no problems snapping them up.
The Everton man is odds-on (3/4) to find the net for a tenth time this season, and given the level of his performances so far it's hard to argue with that logic, providing he starts of course.
Tackle the goalscorer markets once the team-sheets are out, but as the stats show, these two have really struggled to find goals, and first half goals in particular.
9/4 on a 0-0 after 45 minutes looks interesting, but just in case we have a rare flurry of activity, taking the 6/4 on offer for a half-time draw looks a perfectly sensible avenue to go down.
Best bet: Half-time draw in England v Wales at 6/4
Off the field - Southgate's discipline issues
The England manager has rightly been lauded for setting an example, and asking his players to set an example while representing the Three Lions, but his management is being seriously put to the test by his players.
Southgate can rightly feel a bit let down as Tammy Abraham, Jadon Sancho and Ben Chilwell are absent from the squad currently after all three were caught attending a birthday party last Saturday.
That came on the back of Harry Maguire's situation in Greece and then the infamous case of Phil Foden and Mason Greenwood, who have been dropped from this squad following their breach of Covid-19 guidelines in Iceland.
Southgate is speaking to his players about "what it means to wear the shirt" following these incidents, but it's something he really has to get a hold on right now before things get out of control.
"That's not a case of reading the riot act," he said. "That's a case of asking the players what sort of team they want to be involved in and be a part of."
Can Calvert-Lewin take his chance?
Nine goals already this season, two hat-tricks, and more headed goals than anyone else since the start of last season - Dominic Calvert-Lewin is in irresistible form for Everton this season.
Southgate was right to call him up and he should really start him against Wales - leaving Harry Kane to enjoy a break before the Nations League games next week.
There isn't too much competition behind Kane for the back-up striker role for England, and Calvert-Lewin has a golden opportunity to play his way into Southgate's thinking for the Euros over the next couple of weeks.
The way he's been playing, you'd have to think he may just take that chance.
Betting stats and trends
Wales have not beaten England at Wembley since 1977, with their last win over the Three Lions coming in 1984, but they're on a fine run of eight games unbeaten.
They've won their last four games with a clean sheet, while drawing with Croatia and Slovakia when conceding just one goal in each game.
England have won five and drawn three of their last eight friendly games, with five of their last six wins coming with a clean sheet, so goals may not be on the menu at Wembley.
England's form without fans doesn't inspire much confidence - all three together have produced just a Raheem Sterling penalty after a 1-0 win in Iceland and 0-0 draw in Denmark this year, coupled with a 0-0 draw in Croatia back in 2018.
Incredibly, if you combine Wales' two late 1-0 wins post-lockdown then between the two of them they've not scored a goal before the 80th minute of their matches so far.
Odds correct as of 1934 on 07/10/20
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