Football betting tips: Championship
Portsmouth vs Oxford (Monday, 12:30)
1.5pts Over 3.5 Oxford corners at 5/4 (Paddy Power)
Watford vs Charlton (Monday, 15:00)
1pt Second-half to have the most goals at 6/5 (General)
Swansea v Middlesbrough (Monday, 17:30)
2pts Over 2.5 goals at 10/11 (bet365)
Hull vs Coventry (Monday, 20:00)
1.5pts Over 2.5 Hull cards at 7/2 (Paddy Power, Sky Bet)
1pt Over 4.5 Hull cards at 25/1 (Paddy Power, Sky Bet)
Portsmouth v Oxford
- Kick-off: Monday, 12:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
A quick glance at the Sky Bet Championship table will show you just how significant this game is.
Both sides are in serious relegation trouble with just a handful of games remaining. A worry will be with how the group above appear to be breaking away a bit leaving it to what is likely to be a three-team battle to avoid the two spots.
A draw suits neither, in all honesty. Home games carry further importance in this situation for Portsmouth while the majority of Oxford's games remaining come against those towards the top end of the division.
Considering Leicester are at Sheffield Wednesday, a side so bad they're in a division of their own, there's an added layer of pressure to this contest given the Foxes' likely return of three points.
I'm going to tap into the potential game state and take OXFORD OVER 3.5 CORNERS at 5/4. It's a low enough line to warrant some interest.
Keeping teams out in the first-half has been a problem for the visitors. From their 20 away games this season, they've conceded the first goal on nine occasions - eight of those have landed before the break.
Even at a level game state it's got the potential with their need for points at this stage of the season. There is, of course, the potential they do score first or hold a lead for a prolonged period of time yet that will still open up counter attacking opportunities.
They've hit this line in their last four on the road and I'm happy to back that to continue at the prices.
Watford vs Charlton
- Kick-off: Monday, 15:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
It's been a decent season if you're a Watford season ticket holder, well, if you're one who ignores what happens in the away contests.
Only promotion hopefuls Coventry and Ipswich have picked more home points than the Hornets and while a spot in the top six remains a possibility, the 80/1 odds on a play-offs appearance should tell you all you need to know.
A similar theme applies at the other end of the table although that's in Charlton's favour. Relegation is still a potential yet I hold little interest in taking the 33/1 odds on that to happen.
You're not getting a great deal of entertainment in the typical Addicks game unfortunately. Nathan Jones' side sit bottom for games which have seen Over 2.5 goals this season (14 from 40) with their goals per match rate of 2.1 ranking them dead last too.
Unsurprisingly then, the first-half of their games are typically low-scoring, making the 6/5 on the SECOND-HALF HAVING THE MOST GOALS worth consideration.
Just nine of Charlton's 20 on the road have seen a goal scored in the first-half. The 45% return rate the lowest in the league and way below the average of 72%.
Watford go close to that average so we have to be wary of their involvement but we have seen how tight Charlton like to keep things before aiming to snatch something later in the game if required.
It's a far more appealing route than taking the 2/5 on Under 1.5 first-half goals.
Swansea v Middlesbrough
- Kick-off: Monday, 17:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
For not the first time this season, we're left wondering how Middlesbrough didn't win a game.
The Friday defeat to Millwall came despite a dominant first-half performance which should have delivered more than the single goal. Kim Hellberg's got them set up in a way to create plenty and yet they're wasteful.
I'm hopeful this changes in Monday's evening kick-off though as OVER 2.5 GOALS is priced up at 10/11. Boro create more than enough to cover this themselves.
Most expected goals (xG) created in the Sky Bet EFL on Good Friday:
— Sporting Life FC (@SportingLifeFC) April 4, 2026
🥇 Middlesbrough (vs Millwall) - 3.35
🥈 Oxford United (vs Hull City) - 3.30
🥉 Fleetwood Town (vs Bristol Rovers) - 3.04
4️⃣ Stoke City (vs Sheffield Wednesday) - 2.67
5️⃣ Bristol City (vs Charlton Athletic) -… pic.twitter.com/1NMb2tbHq3
But again, it's just about converting those chances. Since Hellberg's arrival, only Coventry (40.78) have created more than Boro's 40.69 expected goals (xG). They're down in fourth for actual goals scored.
Swansea have goals in them. In fact, the 3-0 loss to Coventry ended a 15-game home run across all competitions where they found the net. If games have gone under 2.5 in that period, it's partly down to their opponents struggling to find a way through.
Even with the visitors' wasteful nature with chances, the sheer volume of efforts created should see them striking - there is also the matter of their position in the race for automatic promotion.
This looks a good televised pick on paper. Let's hope it lives up to that.
Hull vs Coventry
- Kick-off: Monday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
The odds on a top six finish for Hull have drifted over the past couple of weeks. The context of this is important though - that drift from 1/7 to 1/3.
In the eyes of the bookmakers and indeed the Championship table heading into the Easter Monday fixtures is that they will end up in the post-season play-offs and defy those summer expectations of a campaign of struggle.
They deserve huge credit for recruiting a good squad in difficult circumstances and the talent of the attack is what's mostly carried them to this point. It defies the data but that's what makes it so enjoyable.
Only Sheffield Wednesday have allowed more chances according to the expected goals against (xGA) metric. In fact, if you rank by expected goal difference (xGD) then they are 23rd. Sometimes though, football doesn't go by expectations.
Coventry are on the verge of a Premier League return. They'll win the league comfortably and it really is a case of when not if their line goes gold in the standings.
This is Hull's toughest remaining game of the campaign. The others come against those currently 11th or lower heading into Monday's fixtures but they'll know the importance of a positive return here given the fact they've won just two of their previous six in the league.
Taking OVER 2.5 HULL CARDS delivers appeal at 7/2, as does a smaller stakes play on the 25s for OVER 4.5 HULL CARDS.
The Tigers are the division's most carded team with Charlie Hughes' caution against Oxford taking them to 100 for the campaign. They've done well to return just the single sending off.
What is interesting is how they've gone fairly high on the cards when facing other top teams. They were shown three in the previous encounter with Coventry alongside the same amount in away contests at Millwall and Middlesbrough.
Against Wrexham, there were four with the same amount coming against Ipswich. Given Coventry's strengths across the pitch, they could line up with the aim to frustrate.
Referee David Webb showed six cards in Hull's recent home loss to Millwall and he's dished out at least three in half of his Championship appearances this season.
There is the danger that Coventry run away with this one and it becomes uncompetitive, we saw that when the hosts welcomed Middlesbrough back in December, but the longer is goes on either level or with the single goal either way, the more likely it is that the referee is called into action.
With a quality opponent in town, I'll side with the league's most carded side to live up to their reputation.
Odds correct at 16:45 BST (04/04/26)
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