Dortmund vs PSG betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Kylian Mbappe to score anytime at 11/10 (bet365)
2pts PSG 14+ total shots at 17/20 (Sporting Index)
BuildABet @ 55/1
PSG to win
PSG 14+ total shots
Kylian Mbappe to score 2+ goals
Marcel Sabitzer 1+ assist
These two sides are very familiar with eachother this season, having already played twice in the competition in the group stage. Both Dortmund and PSG made it past Spanish opposition in the last round, both scoring four in the second legs to advance past Atletico Madrid and Barcelona respectively.
Luis Enrique's PSG are 4/9 to advance, and that isn't a surprise given the fact that they look to be getting better as the season progresses, that they have more quality in their squad, and that they can call upon arguably the best footballer on the planet right now - Kylian Mbappe.
Dortmund will be a tough out though, especially in this home leg, where they are unbeaten in 10 Champions League matches. You feel as though BVB need to win this first leg to stand any chance of advancing.
What are the best bets?
If that is the case then we should see Dortmund open up at times which will leave space for MBAPPE to exploit - not that he needs it mind - and while it may seem a simple bet, sometimes the simple way is the best way, and at 11/10 TO SCORE ANYTIME he simply has to be backed.
Put simply, the bloke is ridiculous. You may say 'he plays in a farmers league' but there is no denying just how good he is. This season he has scored 34 goals in 38 Champions League and Ligue 1 appearances, or 1.03 goals per 90 minutes, finding the net eight times in the UCL.
Over that span he has averaged 0.83 xG per 90 minutes, highlighting how many good chances he gets on the end of on a regular basis, and he had plenty of joy against Dortmund in the two group games.
He scored in Les Parisiens 2-0 win in France, where PSG accumulated 2.44 xG and he accounted for 1.17 of that, while he was on the end of 0.51 xG worth of chances in the 1-1 draw in Germany in which his side generated 2.86 xG.
Those figures tell us that PSG have no issues creating against Dortmund, while it has to be mentioned that BVB post the worst xG per game in the competitions of teams who made it out of the groups (1.80), and so we can profit with Mbappe.
I can see this game going the same way as the previous two; Dortmund ceding possession and PSG dominating the shot count. They won the shot count 17-14 in the first meeting in Paris, and increased their domination to 18-10 in Germany.
So, it's worth backing PSG TO TAKE 14+ TOTAL SHOTS at 17/20. Remember, these are just shots, they don't need to be on target. They can go out for throw-ins for all we care.
PSG have taken 169 shots in their 10 Champions League games this season, an average of 16.9 per game, while Dortmund have conceded 145 shots in their 10 for an average of 14.5.
With BVB happy to sit back, we could see Enrique's side rack up the attempts just as they did in the two previous meetings this campaign. The market has Dortmund more likely to hit the required line than PSG and I just don't think that's an accurate reflection of this game will play out.
Team news
Ramy Bensebaini and Sebastien Haller are out for Dortmund, but all of Ian Maatsen, Donyell Malen and Mats Hummels should feature despite having knocks.
Niclas Fullkrug should lead the line, with on-loan Manchester United winger Jadon Sancho and Karim Adeyemi starting on the flanks.
PSG are still missing Presnel Kimpembe and Layvin Kurzawa, but Luis Enrique made wholesale changes at the weekend at the weekend resting most of his stars..
Kylian Mbappe will lead the line, and likely be joined by Ousmane Dembele and Bradley Barcola.
Predicted line-ups
Dortmund: Kobel; Ryerson, Hummels, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen; Sabitzer, Can; Adeyemi, Brandt, Sancho; Fullkrug
PSG: Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Hernandez; Vitinha, Zaire-Emery, Fabian Ruiz; Dembele, Asensio, Barcola; Mbappe
Match facts
- Borussia Dortmund have only won one of their six meetings with PSG in all competitions (D3 L2), beating them 2-1 in the first leg of the 2019-20 UEFA Champions League round of 16, before being eliminated 3-2 on aggregate.
- Paris Saint-Germain have never won an away match against Borussia Dortmund, losing one and drawing two of their three visits, including a 1-1 draw in the group stages of this season’s UEFA Champions League.
- Indeed, this is the first time two teams have faced in the group stage and semi-finals in a single campaign in the competition since Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund in 2012-13.
- Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 10 UEFA Champions League home games (W6 D4), their longest ever such run in the competition. Indeed, only three teams are on longer current unbeaten home runs in the competition: Manchester City (31), FC Bayern München (15) and Real Madrid (12).
- Paris Saint-Germain have averaged 65% possession in the UEFA Champions League this season; their most in a single campaign on record (since 2003-04). Along with having more possession in all eight UEFA Champions League games under Luis Enrique, the French side have also allowed the fewest opposition passes per defensive action in the current tournament (8.7).
- Borussia Dortmund’s per game average of 1.8 expected goals against is the highest of any team to progress from the UEFA Champions League group stages this season (18 xG against in 10 games). However, based on the quality of shots faced, Dortmund have conceded ten fewer goals than expected in the tournament this term (8 conceded from 18 xG against – excluding own goals).
- Paris Saint-Germain’s Kylian Mbappé has scored eight goals in this season’s UEFA Champions League, his joint-best return in a single campaign (also 8 in 2020-21). The Frenchman is also now just two goals away from becoming the ninth different player to score 50 UEFA Champions League goals.
- Marcel Sabitzer has assisted five goals in the UEFA Champions League this season, with two of those coming in their second leg victory over Atlético de Madrid. The only Borussia Dortmund player to make more assists in a single campaign in the competition is Ousmane Dembélé (6 in 2016-17), who now plays for opponents Paris Saint-Germain.
- Vitinha has completed 96% of his passes under pressure in the UEFA Champions League knockout stages this season (212/222); the highest percentage of any midfielder (min. 10 such passes). The Portuguese also has the most line-breaking passes of any Paris Saint-Germain player in the knockout stages this term (45).
Odds correct at 1400 BST (29/04/24)
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