Crystal Palace v Brighton tips: Premier League preview and best bets
Monday Night Football sees Crystal Palace take on rivals Brighton and Tom Carnduff has found value in the cards market.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Cheikhou Kouyate to be shown a card at 11/2 (bet365)
0.5pts Cheikhou Kouyate & Joel Veltman to be shown a card at 40/1 (bet365)
The M23 does not directly connect Brighton and Crystal Palace - we're not calling it the M23 derby - but this game has added significance for both sets of supporters and it should make for a great Monday Night Football.
The Seagulls were, quite frankly, robbed when the sides last met as Palace scored two from a total of three shots to claim a 2-1 victory at the Amex. It was a 1-1 draw in the game at Selhurst Park - again, Brighton deserved to win that one.
Patrick Vieira's arrival at Palace in the summer has brought some steady improvement though with results and performances starting to pick up following a slow start.
Brighton aren't smashing the xG charts this time around but they are establishing themselves as a more clinical side. It shouldn't be as one-sided as the games we saw last season - this should make for a good game to round off the Premier League weekend.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Monday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Crystal Palace 2/1 | Draw 21/10 | Brighton 6/4
Andre Marriner is the man in charge of this one and he could be in for a busy evening if it is anything like last season's meeting between the two teams. Five yellows and a red were dished out as Alexis Mac Allister's last strike gave Brighton a point in South London.
Marriner isn't exactly the strictest ref - handing out an average of 2.53 cards per game last season - but he did show six in Spurs' win over Watford in his most recent outing. There is also the fact that supporters will be back to witness this game and the atmosphere will play its part.
There is a number of value options in the cards market but the one that immediately jumps out is the 11/2 on CHEIKHOU KOUYATE TO BE SHOWN A CARD. He is yet to be booked this season but that doesn't tell the full story.
Having returned to his natural midfield role following a period at centre-back, only Conor Gallagher (1.8) is averaging more fouls per game than Kouyate. With a 1.6 per game average, it's a surprise to see that he has avoided a booking so far.
Kouyate's presence in the middle should see him involved in the tackles and Brighton have seen opposition midfielders booked in games this season - the most recent example being Wilfred Ndidi last weekend.
Considering the fact that six of the last seven meetings between Brighton and Palace have seen both teams shown at least one card, I'm also willing to create a double that looks a generous price.
Taking the average fouls per game statistic, there is appeal in the 40/1 for KOUYATE AND JOEL VELTMAN TO BE SHOWN A CARD. The Brighton man is posting much higher figures and has been paying for it so far.
Veltman's two cards from three Premier League appearances shows the high number of fouls he is committing. He's clear of his teammates with an average of 2.3 fouls per outing - it's a much higher rate than the 1.2 from 28 appearances that we saw in 2020/21.
In a game with added meaning, we could see the foul count rise and while we're not expecting challenges to be flying everywhere, persistent fouling is what could get players booked. At the prices available, KOUYATE and VELTMAN are value plays in the cards market.
Crystal Palace v Brighton best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Cheikhou Kouyate to be shown a card at 11/2 (bet365)
- 0.5pts Cheikhou Kouyate & Joel Veltman to be shown a card at 40/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1335 BST (24/09/21)
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