Two teams looking to pull away from the drop zone clash on Monday, and we fancy the home side Burnley will avoid defeat to an improving Newcastle side.
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Burnley v Newcastle (2000 GMT Sky Sports Premier League)
Even at the end of November this has the look of a real relegation six-pointer for both teams with them holding identical records with just nine points to their names after 12 games to sit just above the drop zone.
Back-to-back wins can do wonders for you at the foot of the Premier League and Newcastle rocketed from dead-and-buried at the bottom to 14th after taking seven points from nine – but all that did in reality was get them back on a level footing.
Burnley managed a point at Leicester last time out to at least stop the rot after conceding 13 goals in three games, and both the Clarets and Magpies will target this game for three points that would give them a little bit more breathing space approaching Christmas.
Not that Benitez is known for going for it away from home – aside from that remarkable first half at Old Trafford – and this again could be a tight and tense affair with few goals to separate them.
Prediction: Burnley 1-1 Newcastle (Sky bet odds: 5/1)
It should be a game both will target as a must-win, but it's more likely going down as a must-not-lose as Benitez likes to play cagey in away games and Sean Dyche will not going all out and risk being left open at the back. Newcastle have been involved in two of the worst games you'll see away from home, which both ended goalless and this could easily be the same but we're hoping for at least a goal each to celebrate.
Best bet: Burnley draw no bet at Evens
Newcastle are actually favourites for this one despite not winning away from home yet this season and having turgid 0-0 draws in similar games at Southampton, Cardiff and Crystal Palace. Burnley have just one win at Turf Moor but there are positive noises coming out of the club after the international break and at near 2/1 it's tempting to side with them to pinch a close one straight up, but with the draw looming large we've gone with this as added insurance.
RequestABet: Under 2.5 goals, under 10 corners 20+ booking points each team at 9/1
It's an underwhelming game on paper so we're going low in most categories but with just enough in the game to see a couple of yellow cards on each side to plump up our odds just a bit.
Burnley v Newcastle Opta stats
- The home side has opened the scoring in all four Premier League meetings between Burnley and Newcastle, but have only gone on to win once (W1 D3 L0) – Burnley winning 1-0 in this exact fixture last season.
- Newcastle are winless in their last five top-flight matches against Burnley (D3 L2), last beating them at this level in December 1975.
- Burnley have alternated between defeat and victory in their last seven Premier League games played on a Monday (W3 D4), losing last time out against Liverpool in January.
- Newcastle’s last 12 Premier League games played on a Monday have all been away from home – the Magpies have lost 11 of these, winning only at Stoke in January.
- Burnley have won just one of their last eight Premier League home games (D2 L5), beating Bournemouth 4-0 in September.
- Newcastle have won both of their last two Premier League games, having failed to win any of their first 10 this season.
- Newcastle’s Premier League games this season have seen the fewest total goals (24), with the Magpies scoring nine and conceding 15.
- Burnley have both had the fewest (30) and faced the most (82) shots on target in the Premier League this season.
- Salomon Rondon scored his first Premier League goals for Newcastle in their 2-1 win against Bournemouth last time out – he’s not scored in consecutive league games since September 2016.
- Newcastle boss Rafael Benitez has won just one of his last 11 Premier League games against English managers (D6 L4), though that was in his last such match (2-1 vs Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth).