Football betting tips: Monday Night Football
1pt Marc Cucurella to be carded at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Nelson Semedo to be carded at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Cucurella and Semedo to be carded art 13/1 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 13/1
- Marc Cucurella to be carded
- Nelson Semedo to be carded
In positional terms, this is a battle between survival hopefuls Wolves and Champions League chasing Chelsea, but the form table paints a slightly different picture.
Since Vitor Pereira took over at the Molineux, Wanderers have taken seven points from five games and head into gameweek 22 above the dotted line on goal-scored.
Opponents Chelsea have kiboshed their Premier League title hopes. Well, according to the Blues camp, they were never in the title race, but their return of three points from the last 15 on offer has ensured they are now completely out of the conversation.
Enzo Maresca’s side are heavy favourites to end a five game winless run in the league but their record against the bottom six is patchy.
In seven games, Chelsea have only won three times, not ideal considering they have gone off at odds-on prices on every occasion. It is worth noting that one of the victories did come in the reverse where Chelsea netted six times in Black County.
Context is key though as Chelsea only generated an xG of 1.68 on matchday two and three of their goals came in a 20 minute flurry after the interval. Oddly enough, Maresca criticised the chaotic performance post match, so all things considered the result must be taken with a pinch of salt.
It is enough reason to swerve siding with the hosts and with a favourable referee appointment, the player card market is where I have been drawn.
What are the best bets?
Simon Hooper is the man in charge. Although he was slightly stingy in the North London Derby dishing just four yellows, this whistleblower has averaged 4.69 cards per game in the Premier League this season.
MARC CUCURELLA’s price of 3/1 TO BE CARDED appeals.
The full back has picked up six yellows and a red this term, one in the reverse, taking his top flight tally to 29 cards in four seasons (0.32 cards per 90).
Using his cards per 90 average as a rough guide, Sky Bet's price looks a touch large and some firms have the same angle as short as 9/5.
Cucurella averages 2.6 fouls and tackles per game and could be left isolated with an attack minded winger ahead of him.
Jadon Sancho has started the last three of his side's last four league games and should keep NELSON SEMEDO occupied at right wing back for the visitors.
Semedo already has six cards this season building on the 22 he picked up across the previous two campaigns.
With a cards per 90 of 0.35 across three seasons and a sample size of 89 appearances, quotes of 7/2 for Semedo TO BE CARDED are simply too big.
Again this is another price that divides the bookmakers, with some firms offering just 31/20.
Considering the touted pair have 58 Premier League cards between them, the 13/1 about the CARD DOUBLE shouldn’t be snubbed.
Team news
Chelsea continue to be without Benoit Badiashile and Wesley Fofana, while Levi Colwill is a doubt. Trevoh Chalobah, who was recalled from his loan with Crystal Palace earlier this week, will battle it out with Axel Disasi and Tosin Adarabioyo to start at centre-back should Colwill miss out.
Enzo Fernandez and Cole Palmer are doubtful here with knocks, but are touch-and-go. Reece James has been eased back in by Enzo Maresca after his latest injury, and the Chelsea captain could start here as he builds up his fitness.
Wolves should again see Andre and Joao Gomes in midfield, though with Toti Gomes and Yerson Mosquera still out, a back three of Matt Doherty, Santiago Bueno and Emmanuel Agbadou should again be Vitor Pereira's selection.
Matheus Cunha has been battling illness but should shake it off in time to start.
Predicted line ups
Chelsea: Sanchez; James, Tosin, Colwill, Cucurella; Fernandez, Caicedo; Madueke, Palmer, Sancho; Jackson
Wolves: Sa; Doherty, Bueno, Agbadou; R Gomes, Andre, J Gomes, Ait-Nouri; Hwang, Cunha; Larsen
Match facts
- Chelsea have lost three of their last four Premier League games against Wolves, as many as they had in their previous 17 (W10 D4). They did win the reverse fixture 6-2 in August, however.
- Wolves won this exact fixture 4-2 last season, with Matheus Cunha scoring a hat-trick. They’ve not won consecutive away league games against Chelsea since February 1964.
- Having won eight consecutive Monday night games (7.45pm kick-off or later) in the Premier League between September 2020 and April 2024, Chelsea lost their last such match against Ipswich last month. The Blues haven’t lost consecutive Monday night matches since 2015 (vs West Brom in May and Leicester in December).
- Chelsea are winless in five Premier League games (D3 L2), having won five in a row before this. It’s their longest run without a victory in a single campaign since a run of seven between March and May 2023.
- Wolves have lost both of their Premier League games in 2025 by a three-goal margin, 3-0 defeats to Nottingham Forest and Newcastle. The last side to lose their opening three top-flight games of a calendar year by 3+ goals was Forest back in 1910 (three 4-1 defeats).
- Just 43% of Chelsea’s Premier League points this season have come in home games (16/37), the lowest share in the division.
- Across Wolves’ last 13 away Premier League matches in London, there have been 57 goals scored at an average of 4.4 per game (25 for, 32 against). Wolves haven’t kept a clean sheet in the capital since a 2-0 win at Spurs in February 2022, going 22 without one since then.
- Chelsea’s Cole Palmer has been involved in five goals in his last two Premier League games against Wolves, scoring two and assisting three. Indeed, he set up all three of teammate Noni Madueke’s goals in the reverse fixture back in August.
- Since the start of last season, Nicolas Jackson and Cole Palmer have combined for more Premier League goals than any other duo (12). In the competition’s history, only four pairs of players have combined for more Chelsea goals than Jackson/Palmer – Didier Drogba & Frank Lampard (36), Cesc Fàbregas & Diego Costa (14), Didier Drogba & Nicolas Anelka (13) and Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink and Eidur Gudjohnsen (13).
- Matheus Cunha is averaging 3.3 shots per 90 minutes in the Premier League for Wolves this season. Among players to play 1,000+ minutes in a campaign for them, only Henri Camara in 2003-04 has averaged more shots in one season (4 per 90 mins).
Odds correct at 1640 GMT (17/01/25)
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