Championship betting tips: Wednesday best bets
After landing three Championship winners from three on Friday night, Joe Rindl returns to preview Wednesday's second tier action.
Football betting tips: Championship
1.5pts Fulham to win to nil v Swansea at 11/8 (Betfred)
1.5pts Both teams to score 'no' in Barnsley v Nottingham Forest at 5/6 (BetVictor, Mansion Bet)
Fulham v Swansea
- Kick-off: 19:45 BST, Wednesday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Fulham 4/11 | Draw 19/5 | Swansea 15/2
Fulham and Swansea have stalled a little in recent weeks with both sides only managing one win from their last four league fixtures.
The Cottagers can look to their superb early season record - in which they won five of their opening six Championship matches - as to the reason why they’re still within touching distance of the top two.
Swansea on the other hand have so far been unable to refind the winning touch that lead them to consecutive play-off finishes in the last two seasons, with the Swans a lowly 17th, closer to the bottom three than the top six.
Russel Martin’s side have managed just two victories in the league, both 1-0, and have scored more than once on only one occasion - a crazy 3-3 draw with Luton earlier this month which remains a clear anomaly compared to the rest of their record.
Looking at Infogol’s expected goals data and the story gets sadder for the south Wales outfit. Six of Swansea’s nine league games have seen them rack up less than 1.0 xGF.
Fulham’s defence is bettered only by Bournemouth and Coventry City. Expect the hosts to return to winning ways and bag a clean sheet too.
FULHAM TO WIN TO NIL at 11/8 looks the value play.
Score prediction: Fulham 2-0 Swansea (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Barnsley v Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off: 19:45 BST, Wednesday
- TV Channel: Sky Sports Arena
- Barnsley 7/5 | Draw 21/10 | Nottingham Forest 21/10
Last week I wrote a feature assessing why Nottingham Forest sacked Chris Hughton, and whether new boss Steve Cooper can be the man to take the Tricky Trees back to the top.
To sum up, Hughton had to go because of Forest’s pitiful numbers in front of goal. Under Hughton this season they averaged a measly 0.71 expected goals for (xGF) per game.
Since Infogol started collecting data for the Championship, only Ipswich (0.74) and Bolton (0.75) come close across a whole season, both going down, and detached from the rest in the 2018/19 season.
In Cooper’s first game in charge at the weekend - a 1-1 draw with Millwall - they bucked the trend and finally managed more than one expected goals (xG: FOR 1.05 - 0.88 MIL), winning the xG battle for just the second time this month.
It’s growing, but not by much. Forest are still struggling to create, managing just four shots last time out.
Barnsley aren’t exactly exciting in front of goal either. The Tykes are without a win in seven games in all competitions and have failed to score in three of their last four matches.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE ‘NO’ at 5/6 is too good to pass up.
Score prediction: Barnsley 0-0 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Championship best bets
- 1.5pts Fulham to win to nil v Swansea at 11/8 (Betfred)
- 1.5pts Both teams to score 'no' in Barnsley v Nottingham Forest at 5/6 (BetVictor, Mansion Bet)
Odds correct at 1400 BST (28/09/21)
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