Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Arsenal to win to nil at 7/5 (General)
0.5pt David Raya to be shown a card at 10/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
How Arsenal must be relieved to be returning to the safety of the Champions League.
Before March 22 they had lost only three times in 49 games this season. They have since suffered three successive defeats domestically, losing the Carabao Cup final to Manchester City, exiting the FA Cup at the last-eight stage against Championship side Southampton and perhaps most damaging of all losing 2-1 at home to Bournemouth in the Premier League on Saturday.
This competition, though, is their safe space.
Kai Havertz's stoppage-time winner a week ago means they take a 1-0 lead into the second leg of this quarter-final tie and remain unbeaten in Europe with 10 wins and a draw.
The dominant narrative is that Mikel Arteta must allow Arsenal to play with more freedom in pursuit of the glory the club has waited more than two decades for.
While that may very well be true, and could in fact be the way the Spaniard chooses to go against City in a gargantuan top-flight clash on Sunday, this is a very different game.
ARSENAL are a general 4/7 to beat Sporting in 90 minutes but 7/5 TO WIN TO NIL which feels like a sensible way to back them in a contest where Arteta's men will be dead set on giving nothing away.
When fielding a full-strength team the Gunners have conceded only once in four home matches in the UCL this term, and that was against Bayern Munich.
Across their five games at The Emirates they have allowed just 0.67 expected goals against (xGA) on average, with that number inflated by the 1.11 xG a second-string team allowed in a dead-rubber 3-2 win over Kairat in their final group-stage match.
An Arsenal clean sheet can be backed at even money but with an air of uncertainty about the hosts I prefer the bigger odds to a smaller stake and am willing to back them to make it six Champions League home wins from six.
Given the anxiety engulfing north London I'm also prepared to have a swing on DAVID RAYA TO BE SHOWN A CARD at 10/1.
Although the Gunners should be simply too good for their Portuguese opponents, they may well get edgy in the closing stages, running the clock down at any opportunity.
Referee Francois Letexier isn't shy when it comes to keeper cards, booking Lille's number one in his last match - the fifth time he's punished a man between the sticks in 23 club games this season.
Raya's been quiet by his own standards. Having picked up five yellows last term he hasn't been booked (it was for time wasting) since an opening weekend win at Manchester United.
Deputy Kepa, meanwhile, has collected three yellows in 11 cup appearances, two of which were for time wasting to protect a lead late on. Hopefully he's reminded his team-mate of his responsibilties...
Odds correct at 11:00 BST (14/4/26)
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