Tuesday's Champions League betting preview and tips


David John expects Monaco to keep up their excellent goalscoring record at Manchester City in the Champions League while we've the best bets for Bayer Leverkusen v Atletico Madrid too.

Manchester City v Monaco (1945GMT)


Expectations will be high when Monaco arrive in Lancashire that all guns will be blazing once more in what has been an extraordinary season for the Principality. 

Head coach Leonardo Jardim has completely re-invented a team which was pilloried for its "chloroform" tactics that left fans bored to death but is now the highest-scoring outfit in all five major European domestic leagues with an eye-popping 76 goals from 26 games. 

It has taken time for Jardim to reach this stage and a lot of the family silver has been cashed in as the likes of Anthony Martial and Yannick Carrasco have been sold on for a healthy profit with Jardim then rebuilding virtually from scratch. 

Notice was probably served as to their intentions during mid-September in this competition when they scorched into an early 2-0 lead against Tottenham at Wembley and never really looked back on the way to topping the group. 

This is the next rung up the ladder as they try to transfer the form from beating up domestic rivals to this stage of the Champions League as a City side stands in their way that seems to have found its stride once again following a rather rocky spell just over a month ago. 

I am sure Pep Guardiola would have loved to have unleashed Gabriel Jesus but he may well be forced back to Plan A and start cranking up Sergio Aguero once more. 

It seems remarkable that a striker of the Argentine's quality has been left to sit scowling on the bench but he has not really been quite the same in all honesty following a four-match ban. 

He did look to getting some real sharpness back though with a promising effort against Huddersfield in the FA Cup at the weekend and additional game time at the moment can only help his cause. 

City are very warm favourites to take a lead back to the south of France but I do feel that the chance of the visitors has been very much underplayed. 

Perhaps an underwhelming 1-1 draw at Bastia last weekend was down to this game looming large on the horizon so I would not put it past them in the slightest to make a smart start - like the Tottenham game - at the Etihad. 

The quote for the time of their first goal is over/under 71 minutes and I would be pretty stunned if they had not registered by then. 

I will leave the last word to Marseille boss Rudi Garcia, a team they have put eight goals past in two Ligue 1 encounters. He said: "They would score even if they had to play blindfold." 

UEFA rules as far as I am aware mean that won't have to be enforced and they are a sound wager to prove very lively on the night.

Verdict: Manchester City 2-2 Monaco

Opta facts:

  • This is the first competitive encounter between Manchester City and Monaco.
  • Manchester City have never lost to French opposition in European competition (W1 D2), with all three previous meetings coming against PSG.
  • Meanwhile, Monaco have come out on top in each of their three Champions League knockout ties with English clubs (v Manchester Utd in 1997/98, Chelsea in 2003/04, Arsenal in 2014/15).
  • In fact, Monaco have lost only one of their five Champions League away games against English opposition (W2 D2), winning their last two CL games on English soil (v Arsenal in February 2015, v Tottenham in September 2016).
  • Manchester City have won their Champions League group only once in six participations (2015/16). It's also the first time Pep Guardiola hasn't secured top spot in a Champions League group campaign as manager.
  • Manchester City are unbeaten in their last eight Champions League home games (W5 D3), conceding only five goals in the along the way, their longest run without a defeat in the competition at the Etihad.
  • However, Manchester City have won only one of their five home games in the Champions League knockout stages (D2 L2), it was against PSG last April.
  • Monaco have lost five of their last seven Champions League knockout games (W1 D1), with their only win in that time coming in London against Arsenal (3-1, February 2015).
  • Despite having made only 10 starts in the Champions League, Falcao has scored six goals and delivered one assist.


Bayer Leverkusen v Atletico Madrid (1945)


It has not quite been the same Atletico this season we have been accustomed to under Diego Siemone but there is still enough about them for rivals - and bookmakers - to fear. 

Simeone was left devastated after last season's defeat in the final of this competition, an event which has perhaps accelerated his ultimate exit from the club with a strange re-negotiation of his contract in the wrong direction from 2020 back down to 2018. 

The drop off has been noticeable but not a disaster as they are still at the right end of the Primera Division and have always progressed from this stage of the Champions League under the current management. 

But a change of strategy on the field and some key injuries has left them much more vulnerable having conceded as many goals already this season as their 2015/16 tally and that ability to gradually squeeze the life out of rival is not quite as strong. 

Their pedigree means they remain favourites to win the first leg and are odds-on to qualify but their German hosts are certainly trending in the right direction and can't be expected to rollover considering they qualified with an undefeated campaign behind Monaco. 

Three wins from five in the Bundesliga since the restart after the winter break is in keeping with a fairly patchy campaign and leaves them with some serious work still to do if they are going to push back towards the top four. 

The notable constant is an ability to score regularly and that could be a major worry for the visitors if the uncertainty at the back proves a more decisive factor in the game than their tremendous recent experience at this level. 

Kevin Gameiro came off the bench at the weekend to score a hat-trick in five minutes as Atletico beat Sporting Gijon with a late flourish and both teams to find the target would probably be the bet at a fraction of odds-against but I am happier to take a watching brief and see how things play out ahead of the rematch.

Verdict: Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Atletico Madrid

Opta facts:

  • The overall record between Bayer Leverkusen and Atlético Madrid is perfectly balanced with one win each and two draws, as well as three goals apiece. There have never been more than two goals scored in the four encounters between both sides.
  • However, their only previous Champions League knockout tie saw Atlético prevail (1-1 on aggregate, 3-2 on pens): it was in the 2014/15 round of 16.
  • Atlético Madrid have always progressed past the Champions League round of 16 under Diego Simeone (2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16).
  • Bayer Leverkusen have reached the knockout stages for the fifth time in their last six Champions League campaigns. However, they haven't progressed past the round of 16 since 2001/02 when they were beaten finalists.
  • In fact, Bayer Leverkusen have lost eight of their last nine Champions League knockout games (W1), their only win in that run coming against … Atlético Madrid (1-0, February 2015).
  • However, Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last eight Champions League games (W2 D6), their longest run without a defeat in the competition. Only Real Madrid are on a longer streak among current clubs (10 games).
  • Bayer Leverkusen have scored in all 11 of their Champions League home games against Spanish opposition.
  • Atlético Madrid have kept 25 clean sheets (in 42 games) in the Champions League since their return in 2013/14, more than any other club in that period.
  • Since the start of 2016, Atlético Madrid have never scored more than one goal away from home in the Champions League (6 games).


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