Sky Bet Championship: Who will be promoted to the Premier League? A look at averages, results and final fixtures
The Sky Bet Championship resumes this weekend after a three-month period without competitive football.
The battle for the Premier League remains competitive and the teams involved in the race will be hoping that they can hit the ground running as they look to secure their spot in the top-tier of English football.
Leeds and West Brom hold a significant advantage over the rest with a comfortable margin between themselves and third. Fulham will be hoping to close that down over the next nine fixtures; with a crucial clash at Elland Road included in their run-in.
Elsewhere, anyone from Preston in sixth and QPR in 13th has a chance of securing a play-off spot; although it should be said that the Rs are 22/1 for a top-six finish.
Continuing our series from February and March, Tom Carnduff looks at the full promotion picture in the Championship.
How does it currently look?
It's been so long since competitive football that it's worth reminding ourselves of how the table stands heading into the final nine games.
Leeds' victory over Huddersfield, coupled with West Brom's draw away at Swansea, means that Marcelo Bielsa's men sit top of the standings after 37 games. A five-game winning run, keeping a clean sheet in each of those fixtures, being a significant contributing factor to their current position.
Fulham remain the biggest threat to the current top-two with Brentford and Nottingham Forest having too much to do at this point in the season; although we can't completely disregard their chances.
Preston are hanging onto sixth spot but a hefty chasing pack threatens their position in the play-offs. A number of teams have a serious chance of finishing in the top-six.
The switch at the top has seen Leeds backed into 4/11 favourites to win the title with Sky Bet, while West Brom have drifted to 9/4.
What about averages?
Little did we know just how important points-per-game could have been when we last looked at the promotion race after 36 games. If the Championship decided that it could not complete the season, this metric would be used to decide promotion and relegation.
We've seen that happen in Sky Bet League One and Sky Bet League Two; they will have their post-season play-offs after deciding the four teams using the PPG method.
Leeds sitting top of the table puts their current expected points tally (combining points-per-game average for remaining fixtures with current points) at 88. For West Brom in second, their figure stands at 87.
Perhaps crucially, Fulham's expected number is 79. That means that 80 points could be good enough to secure automatic promotion to the Premier League. That would be the lowest tally for a team in second since Hull's 79 in 2013.
This season is likely to reflect that 2012/13 campaign in terms of final standings. Leicester reached the play-offs with 68 points (followed by the famous Troy Deeney goal in the play-offs), while Watford finished third with 77 points. The biggest difference there was Cardiff winning the title with an eight-points cushion whereas this season should be much closer.
The crucial fixtures
Remaining fixtures v top-seven sides:
- West Brom: Brentford (A), Fulham (H)
- Leeds: Fulham (H)
- Fulham: Brentford (H), Leeds (A), Nottingham Forest (A), West Brom (A)
- Brentford: Fulham (A), West Brom (H), Preston (H)
- Nottingham Forest: Bristol City (H), Fulham (H), Preston (A)
- Preston: Nottingham Forest (H), Brentford (A), Bristol City (A)
- Bristol City: Nottingham Forest (A), Preston (H)
Preston had the toughest remaining fixtures out of the top-seven sides and they were beginning to suffer from that prior to the break. They travelled to West Brom and Fulham with both games ending in 2-0 defeats. That was followed by a 3-1 home loss to QPR.
The fortunate part for them is that those below have failed to capitalise and overtake them in sixth. Despite the defeats, they remain one point ahead of Bristol City in seventh.
Alex Neil's side also now have five consecutive games without facing a team in the top-seven. If they can make the most of that and create a gap there won't be as much pressure going into the final four - which sees them face three teams all currently at the top-end of the table.
It is make-or-break time for Fulham with their next two fixtures seeing them come up against Brentford and then Leeds. On top of that, they've also got another West London derby, this one against QPR, to contend with after their trip to Elland Road.
That clash in West Yorkshire will also be Leeds' last fixture against those currently in the top-seven. A nice enough run-in for the current title favourites to get themselves over the line.
West Brom have to face Fulham at home. Before that, they make their final visit to Griffin Park to take on Brentford. Nottingham Forest's position in terms of the top-seven remains unchanged with Bristol City, Fulham and Preston all to come. Similar can be said for City, who have two top-seven fixtures left.
Who are the favourites?
Promotion - odds via Sky Bet
- Leeds - 1/20
- West Brom - 1/16
- Brentford - 5/4
- Fulham - 13/8
- Nottingham Forest - 6/1
- Preston - 11/1
- Millwall - 12/1
Given the gap between the top-two and those in the play-offs, it's little surprise to see Leeds and West Brom heavy odds-on favourites to secure promotion this season.
Despite Fulham being third, Brentford find themselves as the preferred 'best of the rest' team with their odds at 5/4. Fulham are 13/8 even with four points more than the Bees.
If Preston do finish in the top-six, they aren't currently fancied to go on and win the play-offs, although their current odds of 11/1 will factor in the number of teams in the chasing pack.
The best outright value may come in taking the straight forecast of Leeds first and West Brom second at 8/13; with the reverse order available at 2/1.
Our predictions
After a three-month hiatus, the Sky Bet Championship returns with nine games of the 2019/20 campaign remaining.
Fulham taking on Brentford is the perfect clash to welcome back football in England's second tier. Two of the promotion hopefuls meeting in a game that could go either way; with anything but a home win having a significant impact on the automatic promotion race.
Click here to read our preview for the remaining nine games which looks at the promotion race and the battle to avoid the drop.
Odds correct at 1300 BST (15/06/20)
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