Football betting tips: Carabao Cup
2.5pts e.w Manchester City to win the Carabao Cup at 6/1 (General 1/2 odds 1-2)
1pt e.w Everton to win the Carabao Cup at 22/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair 1/2 odds 1-2)
Last season the Carabao Cup followed the odds right through to the final, when the Premier League’s two outstanding teams met at Wembley before Manchester City turned the tables on Arsenal.
In a completely unseeded competition there is a lot of fortune required for the best two clubs in the country to avoid one another. The third round - when top-flight teams competing in Europe enter - has already thrown up some doozies.
There are a remarkable six all-Premier League ties: Sunderland vs Hull, Chelsea vs Leeds, Ipswich vs Arsenal, Liverpool vs Tottenham, Coventry vs Aston Villa and Manchester United vs Brighton.
The Gunners are the only one of the dozen I would consider backing in the outright market, but there is better value elsewhere.
EFL Cup winner odds (via Sky Bet)
Each Way: 1/2 Odds, 2 Places
- Arsenal - 4/1
- Man City - 4/1
- Chelsea - 6/1
- Liverpool - 7/1
- Man Utd - 17/2
- Tottenham - 10/1
- Brentford - 12/1
- Newcastle - 14/1
- Everton - 22/1
- Brighton - 25/1
MAN CITY begin with a home tie against Championship club Norwich and at a general 6/1 look worth backing to defend their crown and WIN THE CARABAO CUP for an eighth time in 14 seasons.
The gap between Arsenal as 7/2 favourites and City - generally third favourites behind Chelsea, although there is quite the disagreement between firms - looks like an overreaction to the Blues having no European football. Xabi Alonso's side face a difficult third-round tie against Leeds, who are unbeaten this season and have lost just twice in their last 16 matches, one of which was a final-day dead rubber.
New City boss Enzo Maresca knows the value of winning silverware having secured the Conference League and Club World Cup during his first season at Stamford Bridge.
A campaign in which he oversees the transition from Pep Guardiola, comfortably finishes in the top three and lifts a trophy would surely be considered a success.
He has more than enough quality to challenge on all fronts, just as his predecessor did, with City’s late flourish in the transfer window leaving them with multiple options in every position other than up front.
Last 10 Carabao Cup/EFL Cup winners and finalists
2017: Man Utd 3–2 Southampton
2018: Man City 3–0 Arsenal
2019: *Man City 0–0 Chelsea
(City won on penalties)
2020: Man City 2–1 Aston Villa
2021: Man City 1–0 Tottenham
2022: *Liverpool 0–0 Chelsea
(Liverpool won on penalties)
2023: Man Utd 2–0 Newcastle
2024: Liverpool 1–0 Chelsea
2025: Newcastle 2–1 Liverpool
2026: Man City 2–0 Arsenal
Newcastle (14/1) are the only club to have broken the stranglehold of the 'big six' in recent years. Other than their 2025 triumph, the Manchester clubs, Liverpool and Chelsea have won every Carabao Cup since 2014.
This time around they have been handed something of a banana skin trip to Millwall in round three, making them difficult to get on board with.
The Magpies have no European football to worry about this season, which proved a catalyst both in 2025 and for their run to the 2023 final. But this is a different era under a different coach in Matthias Jaissle, who would not be afforded the same legendary status Eddie Howe earned by ending the club’s 56-year trophy drought.
There is another club in a similar position, though.
EVERTON supporters were far from happy when the transfer window closed after things did not go their way, leaving the club with one recognised striker and arguably a weaker squad than last term, adding to a sense of restlessness among the fanbase.
On the pitch they have started the season in encouraging fashion, maintaining their unbeaten record thanks to Ainsley Maitland-Niles’ wonderful debut strike in the dying seconds against Manchester United on Sunday.
The Toffees are among a small cluster of Premier League teams who should avoid being dragged into the relegation battle but look unlikely to challenge above mid-table. A cup run therefore represents their most realistic route to a more meaningful season.
The club have not gone beyond the quarter-final stage of a cup since 2016, something not lost on David Moyes.
The Everton manager has sought to keep the fans on board in recent weeks, repeatedly trotting out that "they have an Evertonian in charge." He showed his intention in this competition by going full strength at former club Preston and was duly rewarded with a 4-0 win.
At 22/1 TO WIN THE CARABAO CUP Everton look a good price to end a 32-year wait for success stretching back to the 1995 FA Cup.
They face Wolves in the third round, with the visitors’ clear priority being an immediate return to the Premier League. Cesar Peixoto played his second string in round two, which was enough to win at League One club Sheffield Wednesday.
That is the only match in which the Old Gold have managed to keep a clean sheet this season. Their 10 goals conceded in five league games, despite a W2 D2 L1 record, underline a major defensive problem that Moyes' men should make the most of.
Odds correct at 11:00 BST (7/9/26)
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