With two sides out of form, Tom Carnduff investigates further than the match result, presenting a 13/8 tip for the Turf Moor clash.
Recommended Burnley v Manchester United bets
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It’s a clash between two sides who have started the season poorly as Burnley host Manchester United at Turf Moor.
Burnley are yet to taste victory, while United have struggled in their opening encounters with two losses piling the pressure on Jose Mourinho.
Both teams have done little to inspire in the early stages, which is why it is worth investigating other avenues when it comes to picking out a best bet.
I am interested in cards in this one, with referee Jon Moss no stranger to handing out punishments on the pitch.
Moss has shown 12 yellow cards and one red in the three league games he has overseen so far this term, and there should be more of the same here on Sunday.
There has been a total of 17 yellow cards in games involving these two sides this season, roughly an average of three a game.
Given the referee involved, there is a good chance that average will be hit again here, which is why I am looking at card markets as opposed to the standard win.
The visitors are odds-on favourites here, but they have not shown that they are a side worthy of their price.
Burnley may have had an equally poor start, but they will be eager to bounce back after being knocked out of the Europa League in front of their own fans on Thursday.
The points should be shared here based on early form, and a best price of 14/5 on the draw seems tempting in the circumstances.
Score prediction: Burnley 1-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bet: Between 25-45 booking points at 13/8
This does have the making of a bit of a scrappy affair. Mourinho will be desperate for a victory to silence the critics while Burnley have it all to play for as they aim to respond to their exit from Europe in midweek. Moss is a referee who can be viewed as the stricter of the top-flight officials, which should see cards shown in this game.
Goalscorer bet: Romelu Lukaku at 7/5 anytime
He is United’s main man up front and has already found the net once this season despite a poor start. Lukaku is someone with an eye for goal and the 7/5 best price available on him seems quite generous given the Red Devils’ price to win the game outright.
This one hits the criteria for our preview above. Both teams are expected to strike, while bookings may be the order of the day. With both teams wanting the win, and the attacking power of United combined with the Clarets’ home advantage, there should also be a high corner count.
Opta match facts
- Burnley have won just one of their last 17 top-flight meetings with Manchester United (D8 L8), with that victory coming in their first ever Premier League meeting back in August 2009 (1-0).
- Manchester United have kept a clean sheet on nine of their last 10 visits to Turf Moor in all competitions, with the exception being a 0-1 defeat in August 2009.
- Burnley are occupying the bottom three of the Premier League for the first time since August 2016 – however, the Clarets have won three of their last four Premier League matches when starting the day in the relegation zone (D1).
- Manchester United have lost two of their first three league matches of a season for the first time since 1992-93 (P3 W0 D1 L2) – they haven’t lost three of their first four league matches in a season since 1986-87, when they were managed by Ron Atkinson.
- Burnley have collected just nine home points in the Premier League in 2018 (P10 W2 D3 L5) – only Huddersfield (8) and Southampton (7) have won fewer among clubs everpresent this calendar year.
- English managers have collected just four points in their last 21 Premier League matches against Man Utd (W0 D4 L17) since Sam Allardyce led his Sunderland side to a 2-1 win in February 2016.
- Since Jose Mourinho took charge of Manchester United, he has won all 11 of his away Premier League matches against Englishmen, with two of those victories coming against Sean Dyche’s Burnley.
- Burnley are still yet to make a change to their starting XI in the Premier League this season, while Man Utd have made more changes than any other side (9).
- Manchester United’s goal difference of minus three is their worst since August 1992, when they had the same negative deficit after four matches of the inaugural Premier League season; this is the first time they will be going into a Premier League match with a negative goal difference since September 2014, when they beat QPR 4-0 following a 00 draw away at Burnley in the previous match.
- Burnley have conceded 14 goals in their last five Premier League games – one more than in their previous 14 games combined (13).
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Preview posted at 2220 BST on 01/09/18