Brighton v Newcastle tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Brighton welcome Newcastle in Saturday's late kick-off and Tom Carnduff has found a best bet in the stats markets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts 31+ match tackles at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
The expectation was that Newcastle would have appointed a new manager by the time of this fixture. They may well have a new person at the helm come kick-off but at the time of publication, Graeme Jones remains the caretaker.
He has overseen two defeats and this Newcastle side are struggling. The talk has been of the riches now seemingly available to them in the transfer window but the main aim this season simply has to be survival - that looks a difficult one based on current showings.
This week takes them to Brighton, a side now over-performing their xG but picking up results, the exact opposite to the 2020/21 campaign. Graham Potter's men are a short 4/7 for victory - they should justify that price with three points.
One thing we can expect in this match is tackles based on the season averages so far. Brighton sit second in the Premier League for average tackles per game (19.5) while Newcastle are fourth with 17.7.
Potter's side sit joint-top with Everton for average tackles per home game (19) while Newcastle see 17 per away game. It's 11/8 that Brighton can play to that average with 17 or more in this match while the 5/4 on Newcastle to hit the 14 tackles marker provides appeal.
However, at 11/8 with Sky Bet, the better bet looks to be in taking 31+ MATCH TACKLES. Both sides playing to the averages will see this one go above that.
In five home Premier League games for Brighton this season, the average match tackles count has been 31.2. It's worth noting that their last two games came against Arsenal and Manchester City - two sides who sit in the bottom four for average tackles per game.
For Newcastle, their five away games have brought an average of 33 match tackles and they played their part in those totals. For them, they have played four of the teams in the bottom-half in the average tackles count.
The numbers suggest that we should see a high count in this game and the value is there in backing that to happen. With the hosts a short price, the best bet can be found in the TACKLES market.
Brighton v Newcastle best bets and score prediction
- 2pts 31+ match tackles at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Brighton 2-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1550 GMT (04/11/21)
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