Football betting tips: World Cup play-offs
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Italy
2.5pts Nikola Katic 1+ total shots at 23/20 (Betway) - min price 8/11
1pt Red card in the match at 24/5 (William Hill)
0.5pt Bosnia to win and Nikola Vasilj to be carded at 55/1 (bet365)
Czechia vs Denmark
2pts Tomas Chory to commit 2+ fouls at 17/20 (William Hill) - min price 4/6
1.5pts Denmark to win at 19/20 (General)
***All games kick-off at 19:45 BST and all tips settle in 90 minutes
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Italy
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 19:45 GMT
- TV channel: Amazon Prime PPV
- Live odds, form and stats
Bosnia & Herzegovina take on Italy for the right to play at the 2026 World Cup, with the winner getting the opportunity to take one of the host nations, Canada, in one of the tournament's opening games.
The dynamics of this clash are intriguing, with Bosnia having home field advantage but Italy having a rest advantage given they got the job done in 90 minutes while their opponents needed penalties.
Gennaro Gattuso's side are the strong favourites to advance and book their tickets to North America, but we have been here before with the four-time world champions who are not the force they once were.
Not only have they failed to qualify for the last two World Cups (2018 and 2022) but they suffered group-stage elimination in the two tournaments prior (2010 and 2014). They do have recent winning pedigree thanks to a Euro 2020 success, but all of their stalwarts from that team have retired, manager Roberto Mancini has moved on and overall this group haven't shown the same mettle.
Bosnia have a fighting chance here, just as North Macedonia did when they caused a huge upset against Italy in the 2022 WCQ play-offs. If they didn't have enough motivation for this game - you know, making a World Cup and all - they may just have extra motivation given the reports coming out of the Italian camp, who apparently were very, very pleased to be playing Bosnia and not Wales.
Look at this disrespect and arrogance by Italy. They were already celebrating after we won penalties. We will take this to account in Zenica!pic.twitter.com/P8DCNvpb39
— Bosnian Football (@BosniaNTBall) March 27, 2026
Hopefully Bosnia take that personally and this game explodes. After all, it has every ingredient needed for a RED CARD, and that's the first bet here at a price of 24/5.
The stakes are incredibly high, there is fuel on that fire thanks to Italy's celebrations and we have a referee who is extremely red card happy in Clement Turpin.
The French official has overseen three World Cup qualifiers and has shown a red card in two of those, while both of his last two games at club level saw him brandish a red. He looks an ideal appointment for a game that could get spicy.
We'll also go down the Jimmy the Punt route and back BOSNIA TO WIN alongside their goalkeeper NIKOLA VASILJ TO BE CARDED for a 55/1 poke.
Bosnia are well-organised and hard to break down, and should they get in front you can put your money on their stopper Vasilj to pull out all the stops to slow the game down and waste time. He has done so already in this World Cup qualifying campaign away at Romania in the very first qualifier in a 1-0 win.
The hosts' best chance of success is likely going to come through set-pieces and centre-back NIKOLA KATIC looks over-priced at 23/20 for 1+ TOTAL SHOTS given his prolific nature.
The Schalke man is a giant and has averaged 1.12 shots per 90 in Bundesliga II and 1.65 per 90 across World Cup qualifiers, landing the bet in three of four including a goal against Cyprus.
Czechia vs Denmark
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 19:45 GMT
- TV channel: Amazon Prime PPV
- Live odds, form and stats
DENMARK look a great bet to WIN and secure qualification at near-even-money quotes.
The Danes made light work of North Macedonia in the first play-off game, and were extremely unfortunate to even be in the play-offs after an excellent group campaign that came unstuck by virtue of some incredible Scotland strikes.
A draw at Hampden Park would have seen Brian Riemer's side progress as group winners, and despite being down to 10 men after 62 minutes, they were by far the better team only to be undone by a wonder goal from Kieran Tierney and even better goal from Kenny McLean from inside his own half.
Other than that result, Denmark have been excellent, with that their only defeat in recent years against a non-elite side. You have to go back to 2023 for the last time they lost to an average international side (Northern Ireland) with their only losses in between coming against Germany, Spain (twice) and Portugal.
They are reliable, and while Czechia usually are too, things have changed in this qualifying campaign. Usually so solid, Czechia have been anything but over the last year, scraping into second in their qualifying group ahead of the mighty Faroe Islands - losing to the minnows on the way.
The Republic of Ireland highlighted just how gettable they are, even on their own patch, and if wasn't for a very daft decision by Ryan Manning that gifted them a penalty, Czechia may not even be at this stage.
Denmark are a cut above Ireland, and it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see them win this one comfortably. While Czechia have home field advantage, Denmark have the rest edge given they got the job done with consummate ease and Czechia needed extra-time and penalties.
Czechia striker TOMAS CHORY is of interest in this game to COMMIT 2+ FOULS. The giant forward, who is 1.98m tall, is as clumsy as they come and doesn't mind throwing his weight around.
Across all competitions this season Chory has averaged 2.27 fouls per 90, while this bet has won in two of his three starts for Czechia with both of those being high-pressure matches, the first a must-win game against Croatia and the second last week's contest with Ireland where he committed five fouls in 73 minutes.
The fact Denmark will likely dominate the ball only makes me like this bet more, while I will leave the ladder alone as there is a chance he gets subbed after an hour or so again. Those with access to super sub or similar should consider playing 3+ at 5/2 and 4+ at 13/2.
Odds correct at 16:40 BST (30/03/26)
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