Best backed summer transfer window moves: Arsenal, Tottenham, Chelsea and Everton dominate
With the 2019/20 season finally at an end following Sunday's Champions League final, the start of the 2020/21 Premier League campaign on September 12 is fast approaching.
Transfer activity in England's top flight is expected to quickly gather pace as that first match closes in.
We look at the best backed summer transfer window moves, club by club, with London's big three sides dominating the betting - disclaimer: it needs to be evens or shorter to make our list.
After years spent of neglecting both their defence and holding midfield, Mikel Arteta's arrival at Arsenal seems to have finally signalled a change in priorities.
In fairness the Gunners have spent money in those areas in recent years (Shkodran Mustafi and Granit Xhaka cost a combined £70m) but the players simply haven't been good enough.
The book has been closed on Gabriel Magalhaes, with Arsenal seemingly the winners in the race for his signature the £27m - the Lille defender is expected to sign a five-year deal at the Emirates this week.
Thomas Partey has to be the next arrival if Arteta is to strengthen the team where it's needed most.
It's 10 years since Alex Song, whose performances earned him a move to Barcelona, far longer since Gilberto, and longer still since the days of Patrick Vieira. Some top quality physicality in central midfield, and a player who, when needed, can play the anchorman role.
His release clause is £45.5m, but Arsenal are trying to get him for less - hence it dragging on since early 2020.
Willian has already joined the Gunners on a free transfer from Chelsea, in what could turn out to be the bargain of the summer. His Brazil team-mate Philippe Coutinho may not be far behind.
Coutinho hasn't managed to secure a regular place in the Bayern Munich team since joining on loan from Barcelona last summer, and they are not expected to exercise their right to buy after signing Leroy Sane.
If he had little hope of a second chance at Camp Nou it was all but extinguished by the two late goals against his parent club to help embarrass them 8-2 in the Champions League quarter-finals.
Coutinho's 1/2 odds to sign for Arsenal are actually slightly longer than they were a month ago, a reflection of his recent performances for Bayern.
But this link to north London has been rumbling on for far too long now, there has to be something there. While other clubs appear then quickly drift, Arsenal stay top of the betting and heavy odds-on.
Much will hinge on Alexandre Lacazette's possible exit, as how the Gunners can accommodate yet another attacker without some departures is difficult to envisage.
Aston Villa have been favourites to sign Ollie Watkins for a while now - read Tom Carnduff's thoughts on the deal here.
The link makes perfect sense. Villa really struggled for goals last term, managing just 41 in 38 league games. It was a particular problem following Wesley's mid-season injury, but even before then they lacked the right type of centre-forward - one who could run in behind.
They had that threat during their 2018/19 promotion season when Tammy Abraham was on loan from Chelsea, but Wesley played more of a target man role. Watkins would be a return to that style.
He is a player Villa boss Dean Smith knows well having signed him while he was Brentford head coach, using him as winger.
Smith will no doubt have been impressed to see Watkins plunder 26 goals in 2019/20 - his first campaign as a striker - and he is rumoured to have an £18m release clause.
Brighton
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We'll come on to Ben White in our Leeds United section a little further down, and simply focus on Shane Duffy here.
A great servant for Brighton, Duffy was slowly edged out during Graham Potter's first season in charge as the Albion boss favoured centre-backs more comfortable playing out from defence.
The Republic of Ireland international played just 19 league games in 2019/20 after three years as a virtual ever-present. A move to Celtic seems near enough a sure thing.
Chelsea
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Chelsea have thrown plenty of cash at attacking players by signing Timo Werner and Hakim Ziyech, and continue to be linked with Kai Havertz - a deal that looks increasingly unlikely to be done.
But Leicester full-back Ben Chilwell is expected to join for £50m as they now switch focus to strengthening at the other end of the pitch.
Links to Declan Rice, a player they released from their academy, won't go away. As a fan of the club, he will surely want to make the move too.
West Ham's own summer rebuilding plans are thought to hinge on outgoings, so Rice's move from east to west London could work for all parties.
Whether or not Chelsea need to sell players first themselves is another point though. Billy Gilmour's long-term injury has presented a potential problem in central midfield, but Jorginho, N'Golo Kante and Mateo Kovacic all play that role.
They cost a combined £125m, so surely they can't just be bench warmers following another big-money arrival.
The other position that Frank Lampard has made plain he wants to strengthen is in goal, given Kepa's disappointing performances since arriving for a world-record £72m in 2018.
Chelsea have been linked with a host of keepers - the current favourite to be their new number one is Burnley's Nick Pope at evens.
But I have no confidence in predicting who the Blues will plump for.
Eberechi Eze looks sure to move this summer. It's actually surprising he's stayed at QPR this long.
Fulham, West Ham and Crystal Palace have all been linked with the 22-year-old forward, but it's Palace who laid their cards on the table.
Roy Hodgson's side, who are in desperate need of some midfield creativity, have had a £12m bid rejected, and are expected to go back with an increased offer.
Expect this deal to get done.
Everton
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Carlo Ancelotti is reportedly unhappy at the slowness of Everton's summer transfer activity, but that could well change this week.
By far our most odds-on transfer is the deal to take central midfielder Allan from Napoli to Goodison.
Known for his tenacity, the Brazilian's arrival would fill a gap that has not been filled since Idrissa Gueye was sold to PSG last summer.
And Ancelotti doesn't want to stop there when it comes to beefing up the physicality of his midfield.
Watford's Abdoulaye Doucoure is also seemingly on his way to Merseyside.
Everton put in a host of limp displays following the restart and it seems to have made up their Italian manager's mind when it comes to how he wants his team to look in 2020/21.
A bid was accepted for Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, but he chose to join Tottenham instead - the powers that be will not want the same to happen having burst the bank to bring in such a legendary coach.
It does make you wonder what will happen to Fabian Delph, Andre Gomes, Tom Davies and Gylfi Sigurdsson, though.
This is a saga that could rumble on until the final knockings of October 5.
Ben White turned plenty of heads as he played every minute of Leeds United's victorious Sky Bet Championship campaign, and he has been linked with a £30m move to both his former loan club and some of the biggest teams in the land as a result.
But Brighton do not want to sell him.
The story so far is that Leeds have seen multiple bids rejected, and Albion have seen multiple new contract offers rejected. Really, something has to give.
One of the many flies in this very sticky transfer ointment is the on-off suggestion of Liverpool entering the race for the 22-year-old's signature - something one of White's former managers has thrown his weight behind.
The longer this drags on, the more likely he looks to be staying at the Amex.
In a team that was so woeful, finishing 13 points adrift at the bottom of the Premier League, it's quite remarkable how many sought-after players Norwich possess.
Jamal Lewis had looked to be on his way to Liverpool, when the Reds had a £10m bid rejected they quickly moved on and secured Greek left-back Kostas Tsimikas instead.
Leicester are on the verge of losing Ben Chilwell to Chelsea, so it make sense that they will now be the ones to step in and take Lewis from Carrow Road.
He's expected to cost £15-20m - Chilwell's sale will bring in three times that figure. Good business.
These odds are slowly drifting. At one time, 1/4 sounded like a good price given the level of noise surrounding Liverpool's pursuit of Thiago, but it has gone a little quiet.
Whether that's because the focus had been squarely on Bayern Munich's pursuit of European glory is anyone's guess, so it's anyone's guess as to whether the now longer (but still odds-on) offering is worth a punt.
Bayern are a superbly run club, and while they constantly snare players on free transfers, they don't suffer the same ignominy. Thiago's contract expires in 2021 and he doesn't want to extend it.
I cannot see him remaining in Bavaria beyond October 5 unless he has a change of heart.
The distraction of the Champions League has to have played a part, because who would not want to sign the Spain midfielder for a reported £27m?
After the way he played in the Champions League final, it looks an absolute snip.
Paul Higham has gone into detail about where Thiago would fit into Liverpool's team.
Following a disappointing 2019/20 characterised by a poor defence, Manchester City are not messing about this summer when it comes to recruitment.
Nathan Ake was quickly snapped up for £40m from Bournemouth, someone you could not describe as world class but certainly a defender who looked far better than the team he was with.
But who would've described Virgil van Dijk as world class during his Southampton days? Very few.
Kalidou Koulibaly, though, is a ready-made defender that already belongs in that category. Which is why City are willing to fork out £60m for a 29-year-old.
This will happen.
City will then have Aymeric Laporte, Ake, Koulibaly, John Stones, Nicolas Otamendi, Eric Garcia and Fernandinho as centre-half options.
Is Pep Guardiola preparing to switch to a three-man defence that went so wrong against Lyon? If not, there could well be multiple departures.
Contract rebel Garcia is likely to be the first.
It had seemed like there was a genuine appetite from all three parties to get this deal done, but that has waned over the summer, having initially been a 1/8 inevitability.
Jadon Sancho has been linked with Manchester United for almost three years and, had the coronavirus pandemic not happened, he may well have finally made the move during this window.
Dortmund will not budge on the fee, Sancho won't budge on personal terms, and United won't match the demands. It looks like the pause button will be hit for 12 months.
A price of evens is probably a very fair reflection of this deal being in the balance.
It looks like Chris Smalling will get his move, though.
The England international won a lot of admirers during his season on loan in the Italian capital, and tweeted his disappointment when Roma and Man United couldn't agree a deal for him to remain there for the elongated European campaign.
I’m gutted that I can’t finish what we started this season. To experience the love shown to me in such a short time was extra special and it will not be forgotten. I want to thank and wish all the players and staff the best of luck against Sevilla. DAJE ROMA! 💛❤️ 🐺 pic.twitter.com/9vHfpWUNsz
— Chris Smalling (@ChrisSmalling) August 4, 2020
Wow, how things have changed for Jack Butland in two years.
Back in the summer of 2018 he was battling it out with Jordan Pickford to be England's number one for the World Cup in Russia, while Stoke, recently relegated from the Premier League, demanded £30m for him.
That price tag scuppered deals with both Arsenal and Chelsea, who instead signed Bernd Leno and Kepa, and ever since Butland's form during two seasons in the Sky Bet Championship has dropped off a cliff.
Now Stoke are touting him around for £10m, which probably means the buying club will end up paying slightly less.
Step forward Southampton, who enjoyed a phenomenal season after bouncing back from their 9-0 home defeat by Leicester in October.
But throughout it, Ralph Hasenhuttl wasn't sure who to count on between the sticks - Angus Gunn or Alex McCarthy. Fraser Forster also remains on the books, but Saints are still trying to ship him out.
Could they be the club to breathe new life into Butland's flagging career? Still only 27 years old, he's got plenty of years left in him as a keeper.
Tottenham
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Before we get on to potential arrivals, let's start with a potential departure.
Tanguy Ndombele struggled to make any sort of impact at Tottenham under both Mauricio Pochettino and Jose Mourinho following his club record £55m arrival from Lyon last summer.
So poor was he in fact, that Mourinho resorted to publicly lambasting him. He obviously hadn't given up on the Frenchman, though, as the pair flouted lockdown rules earlier this year to have a one-to-one training session in a public park.
The 23-year-old probably needs to leave for Mourinho to be able to shape the squad in his own image, and putting it bluntly I don't think he'll miss him.
Having already brought in Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg to add power to his midfield, and Joe Hart as a goalkeeping back-up, the next two names on Spurs' list play on the flanks.
Undoubtedly right-back is a problem area for Tottenham, so it's no surprise to see them linked with Norwich's Max Aarons. They have sold two top-class players in that position in recent years in Kyle Walker and Kieran Tripper, and been left with the erratic Serge Aurier.
For Aarons to move to north London is only a shade under evens, and Mourinho rarely opts for diminutive defenders. Personally, I see it as unlikely. But it might signal a change in approach from the Portuguese should the young Englishman be brought in.
More from the Mourinho playbook is Bayer Leverkusen's Leon Bailey.
Spurs' superb post-lockdown results were built upon the trusty Mourinho formula of defend first, let the attackers attack.
Bailey fits perfectly into that role as a pacy, tricky player in the front four. But again, sorry to disappoint Tottenham fans, it's an overpopulated area at the club currently.
Given the current competition - Son Heung-min, Erik Lamela, Steven Bergwijn, Lucas Moura, Giovani Lo Celso, Dele Alli - players would need to move on for Bailey to come in.
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