Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Champions League
1.25pts Rodrygo to score anytime at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
1pt Jude Bellingham to be shown a card at 5/1 (bet365)
0.75pt Raphael Guerreiro to score anytime at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 18/1
- Rodrygo 2+ shots on target
- Jude Bellingham to commit 2+ fouls
- Raphael Guerreiro 1+ shots on target
Real Madrid toppling current champions Manchester City in the quarter-finals has, rightly, seen them take favouritism in the outright market ahead of the final four meeting with Bayern Munich.
Opta give them a 38% chance of being the winner with 64% on them being finalists - the latter lining up with the 65% in the implied probability from the odds that they progress.
Bayern know the feeling of reigns coming to an end. The dominance of the Bundesliga was finally halted by Xabi Alonso's remarkable Leverkusen side - yet they're well short of it being anything competitive.
Although they're on course for what would usually be a title-winning tally, so the talk of a Bayern side miles off their usual pace is perhaps incorrect. The past three points tallies to win the title have been 71, 77 and 78 - they're on pace for 76.
So while some may consider their place in the semi-finals of Europe's elite competition a surprise, they haven't really been any worse now than they have in recent seasons.
But this is a remarkably strong Real Madrid outfit, a team charging towards yet another Spanish title. Any chance of Bayern progressing to the final depends largely on a positive outcome on Tuesday night.
What are the best bets?
Real Madrid's record inside 90 minutes in away contests is superb.
They're currently unbeaten in their last 20 in regular time - Atletico Madrid the last side to beat them (on September 24) and they also secured victory in extra-time of their mid-January cup meeting.
So they should be full of confidence, which is natural for a Real Madrid side anyway. The Asian Handicap sitting at 0 shows the money isn't quite sure though so you could get rare value on a Real win (19/10 best price).
That though has impacted other markets and driven the odds out. One of those is RODRYGO TO SCORE ANYTIME, with Sky Bet going top price at 10/3 and 3/1 or 11/4 on offer with most others.
It's a particularly appealing price when you compare it to his team mates as well. Vinicius Jr. (19 goals this season) is as short as 7/5 while Jude Bellingham (21 goals this season) is 6/4.
Rodrygo boasts 17 on his tally, with five of those coming in this competition and one in the away draw at Manchester City in the last round.
He'll continue to operate as a centre forward here alongside Vinicius with Bellingham sitting just behind as we've seen throughout the campaign, and that has led to plenty of opportunities on goal.
Rodrygo averages 2.5 shots per league game this season, with 3.2 coming in European competition. A leading average of 1.7 of the latter have also been on target.
There's also 5/1 available on BELLINGHAM TO BE CARDED, which is a value pick at this stage of the tournament.
Only Eduardo Camavinga (1.6) has averaged a higher number of fouls in La Liga games than the England midfielder (1.1) this season, with Bellingham also returning the same amount in the Champions League.
He's been carded twice in eight outings - both coming in away contests - and bookings resetting at this point of the competition means players no longer have to walk the tightrope to avoid suspension.
Since the rule was changed for the 14/15 season, with the aim of reducing the number of players who were suspended for the final, first legs of the semi-final have averaged 4.06 cards.
Referee Clément Turpin has also shown at least three yellows in all five Champions League outings - with four coming in his solo Europa League appearance.
One final bet here is a big value play on RAPHAEL GUERREIRO TO SCORE ANYTIME, with 10/1 the best price available and 15/2 and above available elsewhere.
Given some availability issues, the expectation is that Guerreiro will continue to operate on the left wing as he did in the win over Eintracht Frankfurt last time out.
He has established himself as one of Bayern's utility players, featuring as a full-back, further forward down the left side or in midfield. The positive is that it's unlikely he'll return to left-back for this.
It looks as if he's been priced up to be playing in defensive positions again, but even if he does return for whatever reason, he did score from full-back in the win over Union Berlin in January.
Guerreiro's outing on Saturday returned a shot on target but it was a 'massive' opportunity, as outlined in the above shot map (which you can click on to view the full interactive offering).
Team news
Bayern face a wait to see if defender Matthijs de Ligt and midfielder Konrad Laimer are fit enough to feature on Tuesday night, with Thomas Tuchel telling his press conference on Monday: "As of now I can't say at 100%."
The same applies to Leroy Sane, although Serge Gnabry should be available to return to the squad. Whether or not he gets a spot in the starting XI isn't quite clear.
Tuchel doesn't have any suspensions to deal with, but Real Madrid do, and influential defender Dani Carvajal sits the one out after his booking in Manchester.
A big boost is the return of Éder Militão to the squad from a long term injury. He played the full game against Real Sociedad at the weekend after featuring in the latter stages against City.
Predicted line-ups
Bayern Munich XI: Neuer; Kimmich, Dier, Kim, Mazraoui; Goretzka, Laimer; Sane, Musiala, Guerreiro; Kane.
Real Madrid XI: Lunin; Vázquez, Nacho, Rüdiger, Camavinga; Valverde, Kroos, Tchouaméni; Bellingham; Vinícius, Rodrygo.
Match facts
- FC Bayern München and Real Madrid is the most played fixture in the history of the European Cup/UEFA Champions League (26 games), with 24 of those coming in the knockout stages of the competition – also the most between two sides.
- This is the eighth time FC Bayern München and Real Madrid have been drawn together in a semi-final in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League. After progressing from four of the first five between 1976 and 2012, Bayern have been eliminated in each of the last two (2013-14 and 2017-18).
- FC Bayern München are winless in their last seven games against Real Madrid, losing six of those meetings (D1). Indeed, this is the German’s side longest winless run against an opponent in European competition.
- Real Madrid have won each of their last three away games against FC Bayern München (0-4 in 2013-14, 1-2 in 2016-17 and 1-2 in 2017-18), the longest ever winning run away to the German side in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League. In fact, no other team has ever won consecutive away games against Bayern across the two competitions.
- Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last 10 games in the UEFA Champions League (W7 D3), all of which have been this season. Only once previously have they had a longer unbeaten run within a single campaign in the competition, going 11 without defeat in the 2016-17 edition (which they would go on to win).
- FC Bayern München have only lost one of their last 24 home games in the UEFA Champions League (W20 D3), and are unbeaten in the last 15 (W12 D3) since losing to Paris Saint-Germain in April 2021 (2-3).
- Real Madrid have scored the most goals from direct attacks (7) in the UEFA Champions League this season. Indeed, among sides to qualify from the group stage this term, only FC København (38.9) have a lower average starting distance than Real Madrid (39.6), determining how close to their own goal they recover the ball in open play on average (in metres).
- Harry Kane has been directly involved in 10 goals in 10 games for FC Bayern München in the UEFA Champions League this season (7 goals, 3 assists). Should he score or assist in this game, he would establish a new record for the most goal involvements by an English player in a single campaign in the competition (also 10 by David Beckham in 1998-99 and 2001-02 and Steven Gerrard in 2007-08).
- Among players to have attempted 50+ dribbles in the UEFA Champions League since the start of last season, the four with the highest dribble success rate are all FC Bayern München teammates: Alphonso Davies (62.1%), Leroy Sané (60.3%), Jamal Musiala (60.2%) and Kingsley Coman (60.0%). Meanwhile, the player with the most completed dribbles in the tournament over this period is Real Madrid winger Vinícius Júnior (68).
- Real Madrid’s Jude Bellingham is the player who has made the most high-intensity pressures in the UEFA Champions League this season (496). In the second leg against Manchester City, Bellingham averaged 1.2 high-intensity pressures per minute on the pitch (146 overall); the highest average by a player to play 90 or more minutes in a game in the tournament this term.
Odds correct at 1240 BST (29/04/24)
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