Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Champions League
2.5pts Atletico to win at 4/5 (bet365, Betfred)
This is certainly the least glamourous of the four quarter final ties, and that's nothing to do with the stature of the two clubs - both of which have made the Champions League final at least once in the last decade.
It's simply because both Atletico and Dortmund are poorer versions of themselves this season compared to seasons' passed. Atleti sit fourth and some 17 points of leaders Real Madrid in La Liga, just two points ahead of fifth, while Dortmund are fifth in the Bundesliga, 23 points off top and needing a good finish to just qualify for next season's Champions League.
Both have weaknesses that can be exploited, and neither has too many out-and-out game changers like in previous seasons.
I'm building this up well for you aren't I?
What are the best bets?
One of Atleti's weaknesses is their away form. They have won just seven and lost nine of 22 away games in all competitions this season, meaning it's imperative they get a lead in the first leg of this tie.
That's one reason I'm backing ATLETICO TO WIN here, with another being the fact that Diego Simeone's men are well rested having not played in nine days, compared to Dortmund who have played twice in that time against sides in the Bundesliga's top four.
A third is that Atleti have been simply sensational at the Wanda Metropolitano. 18 wins from 22 with just two defeats is an excellent record, with one of those defeats coming against Barcelona just days after they edged Inter in the last round of the Champions League, a draining game that went all the way to penalties.
They have won all four Champions League home games, and across the season as a whole are averaging 2.20 xGF and 1.01 xGA per game when playing hosts. That's an extremely impressive process.
As for Dortmund, their away results have been 'OK' but performances have been poor. In the Champions League they allowed 1.84 xGA per away game, being fortunate not to have conceded more on their way to topping the group, while domestically they've shipped 1.78 xGA per game on their travels.
All of this means I think the hosts should be shorter here to win this first leg.
BuildABet @ 47/1
- Atletico to win
- Antoine Griezmann to score anytime
- Antoine Griezmann 1+ assist
- Rodrigo de Paul to be carded
Antoine Griezmann is Atleti's talisman. He's scored 19 times in 39 appearances this season, but has loved playing in the Champions League, netting six in eight, and can add to that tally here.
Across his last 10 matches, he's been more provider than scorer, averaging 0.46 assists per 90, so looks well priced for an assist here too.
Atleti midfielder Rodrigo de Paul has nine cards to his name this season, averaging 0.32 cards per 90, and could have is name taken again here in what will likely be a hard-fought scrappy game.
Team news
Antoine Griezmann is now fit and available for Atletico, looking to have a similar impact in this game as he had in the second leg against Inter in the last round.
Thomas Lemar is out for the season while defender Mario Hermoso is expected to miss this game, meaning Reinildo and Axel Witsel will likely join Jose Gimenez at the back.
Memphis Depay is also a doubt for this match, so Alvaro Morata should partner Griezmann in attack.
Dortmund will be missing left back Ramy Bensebaini for this clash, while Donyell Malen is questionable after suffering an injury set-back at the weekend.
Predicted line-ups
Atletico: Oblak; Witsel, Gimenez, Reinildo; Molina, Llorente, Koke, De Paul, Lino; Griezmann, Morata
Dortmund: Kobel; Ryerson, Hummels, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen; Sabitzer, Can, Brandt; Sancho, Fullkrug, Adeyemi
Match facts
- Atlético de Madrid have won two of their last three matches against Borussia Dortmund in European competition (L1); this after failing to win any of their first three against the German outfit (D1 L2).
- Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in all three of their victories against Atlético de Madrid in European competition, with the most recent win coming in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League in 2018/19 (4-0).
- Borussia Dortmund have won each of their last two away games against Spanish opposition in the UEFA Champions League, although both of those came against Sevilla (3-2 in 2021 and 4-1 in 2022). Prior to that, they had only won one of their 16 away games against Spanish sides in European competition (D5 L10).
- In games played at the Vicente Calderón and the Cívitas Metropolitano, Atlético de Madrid have never lost in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League under Diego Simeone (P16 W10 D6). They’ve only conceded four goals across those 16 matches, keeping 12 clean sheets in the process.
- Borussia Dortmund have only won one of their last 10 away games in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League, suffering defeats in eight of those (D1). Their last away win at the quarter-final stage of the competition was in March 1997 (1-0 v Auxerre), going winless in their last five quarter-finals played on the road (D2 L3).
- Since the start of the 2013-14 season, there have been 15 two-legged ties between Spanish and German teams in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League – from those 15, the Spanish side has progressed on 13 occasions (87%).
- Of the teams remaining in the competition, Borussia Dortmund (368) and Atlético de Madrid (342) are the two sides who have averaged the most high pressures per game in the UEFA Champions League this season.
- Antoine Griezmann is Atlético de Madrid’s all-time top scorer in the UEFA Champions League (32 goals), and has netted six goals in eight appearances in the competition this term. Should he find the net in this game, he would equal his best scoring season in a single campaign (seven in 2015-16, when Atlético reached the final).
- Based on the quality of shots on target faced, Borussia Dortmund’s Gregor Kobel is the goalkeeper who has prevented the most goals in the UEFA Champions League this season (+4.9; 4 goals conceded from 8.9 expected goals on target).
- Rodrigo De Paul has created the most chances through line-breaking passes in the UEFA Champions League this season (8), while he’s also the Atlético de Madrid player with the most line-breaking passes in the final third (39) in the competition this term
Odds correct at 1200 BST (09/04/24)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
Saving
Please wait while your article is saved.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
