Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Nahuel Molina to be carded at 15/4 (bet365, BetVictor)
1pt Martin Gerard to be carded at 19/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Molina and Gerard card double at 16/1 (William Hill)
0.25 Molina, Gerard and Lamine Yamal card treble at 80/1 (bet365)
TNT Sports YouTube video of the highlights from the first leg was titled a “Smash and Grab For Atleti.”
Can a 2-0 be dubbed a smash and grab? I am not so sure but I agree with the sentiment.
Barcelona won the expected goals (xG) battle, had a goal disallowed, hit the woodwork and outshot Atletico Madrid 18-5 with seven shots on target to the visitors' three. And they dominated despite playing the majority of the game with 10 men.
Pau Cubarsi was sent off on the stroke of half-time and Julian Alvarez scored with the resulting free-kick; a very unfortunate few minutes for Barca.
Referee Istvan Kovacs originally booked Cubarsi, then spent an age in front of the VAR monitor before eventually upgrading it to a red.
This decision may have decided the tie because Atleti are in a commanding position, Alexander Sorloth doubled their lead meaning they have a two-goal cushion ahead of Tuesday’s Champions League quarter-final second leg at Metropolitano.
The hosts will come into this one well rested after Diego Simeone made 10 changes for his side's match with Sevilla at the weekend.
Atleti have an 11-point cushion on fifth and are 22 points behind La Liga leaders Barca making the remainder of their domestic season fairly meaningless.
Hansi Flick also opted to rest and rotate against Espanyol making five changes as his side won 4-1 to move nine points clear.
It bodes well for a competitive, full-blooded match.
I noticed something last week. This fixture throws up a lot of cards and the majority of them come when Atleti are hosting. Considering the first leg was pretty ill-tempered (5Y 1R) things could get ugly here.
The last three games between these sides at Atletico Madrid’s ground have seen 25Y and 2R cards (9-9-9).
Clement Turpin is the referee and this is good news for card backers.
He has averaged over four cards a game on the continent this season and averaged slightly under four cards a game across his Champions League career.
I also think it is worth mentioning that the card line is 5.5 with Betfair. So, it’s just a question of who to back TO BE SHOWN A CARD.
NAHUEL MOLINA looks a good price 15/4.
With five cards this season, he clearly doesn’t mind getting stuck in and he’ll have his work cut out trying to contain Marcus Rashford who looked a real menace in the first leg.
Barca’s MARTIN GERARD is too big a price at 19/5 as well. He’s got eight cards in La Liga and the Champions League this season, two of which came in the league meetings against Atleti.
Naturally the CARD DOUBLE appeals at 16/1 and I am not finished there.
LAMINE YAMAL is 5/1 TO BE CARDED.
Usually, I’d be backing him to draw the cards but he picks up a fair few himself which isn’t actually a surprise considering how much he gets kicked.
Yamal draws 2.9 fouls a game and has picked up four cards in nine European matches this term, two for fouls the other two for arguments.
Put him alongside Gerard and Molina and that’s an 80/1 CARD TREBLE.
Odds correct at 16:00 BST (13/04/26)
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