Aston Villa vs Wolves betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Mario Lemina to be shown a card at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Douglas Luiz to be shown a card at 33/10 (Unibet)
1pt Nelson Semedo to be shown a card at 100/30 (Unibet)
0.5pt Lemina, Luiz and Semedo each to be shown a card at 50/1 (Sky Bet)
On what is a packed Easter weekend, you could be forgiven for potentially overlooking this fixture, but it really is one I’m particularly looking forward to. Let’s be honest though, it'll take a hell of a lot to come close to Wolves’ last game in terms of drama.
Coventry’s snatching of defeat from the jaws of victory, before somehow snatching victory back again, triggered a level of managerial pettiness that only added to one of the most dramatic FA Cup quarter-finals in history.
Mark Robins celebrating in a ball boy's face before Gary O’Neil proceeded to don his holier than thou cap in pursuit of condemning such "disgusting" behaviour made it all the sweeter.
At this point, it would be very fair to be asking what any of this has to do with Saturday's match. Basically, I’ve shoehorned it in as I'm counting on plenty of pettiness being on show at Villa Park.
What are the best bets?
Both clubs are having excellent seasons, but injuries and suspensions should mean a derby that was always likely to be scrappy will become further disjointed.
The reverse fixture, which ended 1-1, saw more cards than shots on target in a particularly feisty first half.
By full-time, Wolves had committed an outstanding 19 fouls by full-time, with Villa comparatively letting themselves down by only managing nine. Five yellow cards were dished out in total, with Wolves midfielder MARIO LEMINA sent off for two bookable offences.
This time around, Aston Villa are without suspended captain John McGinn and injured midfield partner Boubacar Kamara, both of whom were carded at Molineux as much of the action focused around clogging opponents in the middle of the pitch.
In their absence, DOUGLAS LUIZ is expected to be paired with the mild mannered Youri Tielemans, whose 13 yellows across three seasons (138 appearances) mean it is likely the Brazilian will shoulder the majority of responsibility when it comes to laying down the law.
LEMINA and LUIZ sit in the top-five most carded Premier League players this season, and are joined on eight yellows by NELSON SEMEDO.
Quite honestly, given the context of the fixture all three look generously priced, and while I am only advocating committing small stakes to any of these wagers, covering all three and also tying them up in a CARD TREBLE available at between 38 and 50/1 feels like a chance worth taking.
Lemina's average of a card every 270 minutes in the league this season speaks for itself, while Semedo's questionable defensive capability could be seriously exposed by Villa's tendency to shuffle much of their play down the left to maximise the threat of flying full-back Alex Moreno.
That match-up makes SEMEDO as good a candidate for a booking as anyone.
BuildABet @ 75/1
- Douglas Luiz card
- Mario Lemina card
- Nelson Semedo card
- Aston Villa to win
- Ollie Watkins to score or assist
ASTON VILLA's strong home record under Unai Emery is well known, as is the transformation of OLLIE WATKINS under his stewardship.
No player has provided more than his 10 Premier League assists this season, while the England striker sits just two goals behind top scorer Erling Haaland with 16 goals to his name.
Team news
Aston Villa will be without full-back Matty Cash for up to a month after he injured his hamstring on international duty with Poland.
Captain John McGinn serves the second if his three-match ban. Boubacar Kamara, Tyrone Mings and Emiliano Buendia are long-term absentees.
Wolves definitely won't have Pedro Neto and Hwang Hee-chan available but Matheus Cunha, Craig Dawson and Jean-Ricner Bellegarde are all touch and go to make it.
Predicted line-ups
Villa: Martinez; Konsa, Carlos, Torres, Moreno; Bailey, Tielemans, Luiz, Zaniolo; Diaby; Watkins.
Wolves: Sa; Ait-Nouri, S Bueno, Kilman, Semedo; Lemina, Doyle, Joao Gomes, Sarabia, Doherty; Fraser.
Match facts
- Aston Villa are winless in their last six Premier League meetings with Wolves (D3 L3), since a 1-0 away win in December 2020 under Dean Smith.
- After losing their first Premier League away game against Aston Villa in December 2003, Wolves have alternated between a draw (4) and a win (3) in their last seven such visits to Villa Park, drawing 1-1 in January last season.
- Aston Villa have lost three of their last four Premier League games at Villa Park (W1), as many as in Unai Emery’s first 23 such games in charge of the Villans (W18 D2). Indeed, so far in 2024 only Sheffield United (1) have collected fewer points at home in the competition than their three.
- Since Christmas Eve, only Manchester City (29), Liverpool (25) and Arsenal (24) have collected more Premier League points than Wolves (22 – W7 D1 L3), with Gary O’Neil’s side winning four of their last six games in the competition (L2).
- Wolves are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League games in which they’ve scored the opening goal (W8 D2), winning each of the last seven times they’ve done so. Only Liverpool (14) and Arsenal (8) are on longer such winning runs in the competition.
- No side has scored a higher share (48%) or conceded a lower share (33%) of their Premier League goals in the first half of games this season than Aston Villa. Meanwhile, no side has scored a lower share of their goals in the opening 45 minutes this term than Wolves (33%).
- Wolves have won three and lost just one of their last five Premier League games against sides starting the day in the top five positions (D1), as many wins as in their previous 31 such games (D6 L22).
- Ollie Watkins has scored 22 goals in all competitions for Aston Villa this season – since 1992-93, only Christian Benteke (23 in 2012-13), Juan Pablo Ángel (23 in 2003-04) and Dwight Yorke (25 in 1995-96) have more in a single season for the Villans as a Premier League club.
- Aston Villa’s Leon Bailey completed five of his six take-ons last time out against West Ham, his most in a Premier League game this season – in 2023-24, only Jérémy Doku (2.2) has a higher expected assists total from a take-on than Bailey’s 1.5.
- Rayan Aït-Nouri has been involved in two goals in his last three Premier League appearances for Wolves (1 goal, 1 assist), as many as in his previous 55 appearances in the competition; he’s only been involved in more in a single campaign in the competition in 2021-22 (3).
Odds correct 1230 GMT (29/03/24)
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