Aston Villa vs Manchester City betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Over 2.5 goals and BTTS at 5/6 (Boylesports)
1.5pts Aston Villa or Draw (double chance) at 5/4 (Unibet)
Manchester City currently sit third in the Premier League table after throwing away yet another lead late on against Tottenham, the third straight game they have conceded a late equaliser.
They remain just three points off the top, but could be leapfrogged by an Aston Villa side looking for a 14th straight home league win.
Unai Emery's side have made Villa Park a fortress, but this will be their biggest home test of the season, even if the champions are missing some key players.
What are the best bets?
I think we have to get Villa onside in this game, with ASTON VILLA OR DRAW the first selection of the preview.
Yes they have shown some defensive frailties of late against Tottenham and Bournemouth, but both of those games came away from home, where they really don't do their best work.
And yes, while only five of Villa's 13 straight wins at home have come against top half teams, they can only beat whats in front of them, and they have done so emphatically, by an aggregate of 37-6. With the xG aggregate reading 28.6-9.1. They have obliterated their opponents.
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This is their biggest test, but it City have shown plenty of vulnerability of their own of late, shipping nine times in three games. No John Stones is hurting them in defence and with their control in midfield, and while Mateo Kovacic is back in the fold after injury, linchpin Rodri is suspended for this.
So far this season, Rodri hasn't played in three matches across all competitions and Manchester City have lost all three. Sporting Life columnist Mark O'Haire did some digging and across City's last 100 games, they have a 76% win ratio with Rodri starting (86 games) and that drops to 57% without him in the line-up (14 games). Their goals conceded per game also jumps from 0.87 to 1.14, highlight just how crucial a player he is for Pep's side, maybe their most important.
With City having lacked the control they desire for most of the season with Rodri, what could it look like without him here against a Villa side who will play on the front foot?
It's also worth noting that last season City won just one of their eight away games against teams to finish in the top nine, losing four and drawing three - one of which came in this fixture. They have already lost at Arsenal this term and been held by Chelsea, suggesting those away struggles against good teams may continue.
Given the chaotic nature of both teams, especially of late, and with City lacking any sort of control without Stones and Rodri, I think we can confidently back goals here, with OVER 2.5 GOALS AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE appealing.
It's a bet that has landed in eight of City's last 12 league games and nine of Villa's 14 this season. It's also landed in five of Villa's six home contests to date, and given the creative abilities of both teams, the high pressing and the shaky defending, goals should be on the cards.
BuildABet @ 23/1
- Aston Villa +1 handicap
- Both teams to score
- Erling Haaland to score anytime
- Matty Cash to be carded
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Erling Haaland was left fuming after City's draw with Tottenham following the referee's decision to give advantage and then not give it as Jack Grealish went through one-on-one. He was right to be angry, but he should have also been angry with himself as he squandered a number of good chances that could have killed the game early.
He won't miss too many more though, and averaging 1.16 xG per 90 minutes this season he will get chances here in an open game.
Matty Cash was seemingly rested at the weekend against Bournemouth, coming on for the final 17 minutes, but he should be back in the line-up for this game, and faces the tricky task of dealing with Jeremy Doku. With four cards to his name already, he could be ripe for card on Wednesday.
Team news
Aston Villa are still missing Bertrand Traore (muscle), Emiliano Buendia and Tyrone Mings (both knee), but Boubacar Kamara is available to return and could replace Youri Tielemans in the first XI and partner former Man City man Douglas Luiz in centre-midfield.
John McGinn will likely continue on the left as Bailey hopes to retain his spot on the right after scoring against Bournemouth, but must fight off Moussa Diaby, who came off the substitutes' bench to set up Watkins's equaliser against the Cherries.
As for Man City, Rodri and Grealish are both ruled out through suspension due to an accumulation of yellow cards, while Matheus Nunes has missed the last three games with a muscle problem and will be assessed ahead of kickoff. The absence of Rodri could see Mateo Kovacic deputise in a deep-lying midfield role alongside Manuel Akanji, but Rico Lewis, Bernardo Silva and potentially John Stones - pending a fitness check - are also options at Guardiola's disposal.
Predicted line-ups
Aston Villa: Martinez; Cash, Carlos, Torres, Digne; Bailey, Kamara, Luiz, McGinn; Diaby, Watkins
Manchester City: Ederson; Walker, Dias, Ake; Akanji, Kovacic; Foden, Alvarez, Bernardo, Doku; Haaland
Match facts
- Aston Villa are winless in 13 Premier League games against Manchester City (D2 L11) since a 3-2 home win in September 2013.
- Manchester City have won 25 of their last 26 Premier League games played on a Wednesday, with the exception being a 1-1 draw at Brighton in their last such match back in May.
- Aston Villa have won just four of their 56 Premier League games against reigning champions (D15 L37), with each one coming against a different side – 2-0 v Blackburn in February 1996, 3-2 v Arsenal in December 1998, 1-0 v Man Utd in December 2009 and 7-2 against Liverpool in October 2020.
- Man City have won just one of their last four Premier League away games (D1 L2), beating Manchester United 3-0. They’ve conceded 2+ goals in two of those four games, as many times as they’d conceded multiple goals in their previous 22 on the road in the league.
- Aston Villa boss Unai Emery has never beaten Man City’s Pep Guardiola in 13 previous meetings across spells with Valencia, Arsenal and the Villans (D4 L9). He’s lost his last five against Guardiola, including all three vs Manchester City.
- Ollie Watkins has been directly involved in 15 goals in his last 15 Premier League home games for Aston Villa, scoring 11 and assisting four.
- Man City’s Erling Haaland has scored a brace in his last two Premier League away games, doing so against Manchester United and Chelsea. He could become just the third player to score 2+ goals in three consecutive appearances on the road, after Dennis Bergkamp (September 1997) and Harry Kane (September 2017).
Odds correct at 1430 GMT (05/12/23)
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