Football betting tips: Wednesday best bets
1pt Jack Stacey to be shown a card in Leeds vs Norwich (19:45) at 9/2 (Betway, Sky Bet)
1pt Lukasz Lakomy to be shown a card in Celtic vs Young Boys (20:00) at 3/1 (bet365)
2pts Amar Dedic 1+ shots in Real Madrid vs Salzburg (20:00) at 11/10 (bet365)
0.5pt Amar Dedic 2+ shots at 11/2 (bet365)
0.5pt Amar Dedic 3+ shots at 20/1 (bet365)
1pt Burnley to beat Plymouth and under 3.5 goals (20:00) at 6/5 (General)
Leeds vs Norwich
- Kick-off: 19:45 GMT, Wednesday
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Home 4/11 | Draw 15/4 | Away 13/2
Tom Carnduff
Leeds returned to the top of the Sky Bet Championship table with victory over Sheffield Wednesday on Sunday and they'll fancy their chances of continuing their winning ways as they host Norwich.
The Canaries sit 11th, five points adrift of the play-offs and defeat to Sheffield United ended their four-match unbeaten run in the league.
Daniel Farke may have to do without starters Manor Solomon and Brenden Aaronson here but the talent and depth of this Leeds squad means that it shouldn't cause them too many issues.
Largie Ramazani is likely to start and he'll be a handful for the full-backs. That's why I'm taking the 9/2 on JACK STACEY TO BE SHOWN A CARD.
Stacey has returned to the starting line-up in recent weeks and has committed a foul in each of his previous two league starts.
The trip to Sunderland just before Christmas delivered three fouls with two coming at Portsmouth a couple of weeks prior - he was carded in that game.
Ramazani has been fouled in five of his seven league starts but the attacking nature of this Leeds side makes them the most fouled side in the division - it won't matter too much who starts down their left side.
A potential return for Junior Firpo at left-back also gives them another attacking option down that side. It should be a busy evening for Stacey.
Odds correct at 1430 GMT (21/01/25)
Celtic vs Young Boys
- Kick-off: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
- TV: TNT Sports 3
- Home 3/10 | Draw 9/2 | Away 7/1
Tom Carnduff
One win from their final two should be enough to secure Celtic with a spot in the Champions League play-offs.
Two opportunities to gain three points, although a final matchday trip to Aston Villa puts significant pressure on the positive result coming here.
The good news is that Wednesday's visitors are Young Boys - the worst side in this season's competition.
Six games played, three goals scored, 22 goals conceded. It's no surprise that they sit rock bottom of the standings and the poor form hasn't just come in Europe either.
They're ninth of 12 teams in the Swiss Super League and trail leaders Lugano by eight points after 19 games.
Young Boys at least 'lead' one metric in this diabolical campaign and that is the fouls. They're averaging 14.7 per game in Champions League encounters.
At 3/1, taking LUKASZ LAKOMY TO BE SHOWN A CARD is a particularly appealing bet.
The defensive midfielder was booked in their 5-1 defeat to Stuttgart last time out in this competition and he's committed at least one foul in each of his last four European outings.
Referee Rohit Saggi has dished out six or more yellows in four of his seven games in all competitions this season with a huge total of nine coming in Sparta Prague's 1-1 draw with FCSB in Champions League qualification.
Lakomy has been carded three times in 12 league outings as well. Considering the prices for others in this market, he's the standout selection.
Odds correct at 1225 GMT (21/01/25)
Real Madrid vs Salzburg
- Kick-off: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
- TV: TNT Sports (Press Red)
- Home 1/20 | Draw 11/1 | Away 22/1
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
AMAR DEDIC did not turn out for Salzburg's recent friendly against Midtjylland, reportedly nursing an ankle injury.
Dedic played the first half of the friendly before, a 6-0 defeat against Bayern, and I am hoping his absence for the last game was a precaution ahead of this Champions League clash because there is a cracking bet involving him.
The defender has been racking up shots for Salzburg on the continent, no one on his side tops his Champions League average of 2.6 and he has had at least two in all four of his appearances at full back (2/3/4/4).
Bet365 have priced up Dedic at 11/10 to have 1+ SHOTS, 2+ SHOTS at 11/2 and 3+ at 20/1 and all are worth taking.
Real Madrid have conceded an average of 13.8 per game in Europe and opposition right sided players have averaged 2.33 shots per game against them.
I don’t have the luxury of waiting till the line-ups are announced but am prepared to gamble on Dedic’s fitness safe in the knowledge that if the Bosnian misses out, the bets are voided by bet365. Should that be the case, at least we have a decent angle to explore the next time Salzburg is in Champions League action (January 29, vs Atletico Madrid).
Plymouth vs Burnley
- Kick-off: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Home 9/2 | Draw 11/4 | Away 3/5
Tom Carnduff
Plymouth's appointment of Miron Muslic hasn't provided the short term upturn in form they would have hoped for.
A 1-1 draw with Watford was followed up with a 1-0 loss to QPR in a game which should have been a far more comfortable scoreline for the visitors.
It's hardly ideal as they welcome a Burnley side who are well in the mix for the title. At 6/5 with multiple bookmakers, BURNLEY TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS provides appeal.
The Clarets' defensive record has been superb and it's basically down to James Trafford's performances in goal - he saved two late Sunderland penalties last time out.
Burnley's attack wasn't thriving in terms of creativity anyway but they've dropped off further in the past few weeks:
— Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff) January 21, 2025
▪️ Averaged 0.99 xG in their first 12 (up to end of October)
▪️ Up to 1.17 across 10 games from November to Christmas
▪️ Down to 0.75 from Boxing Day onwards https://t.co/zjHvcJAoTc
In terms of the underlying numbers, Scott Parker's side boast the second-best defence on expected goals against (xGA), although their position on the expected goals for (xGF) charts are particularly concerning.
The 27.48 figure they've posted across 27 games so far leaves them all the way down in 20th here. For comparison, Leeds are on 48.84 xG; Sunderland on 38.17.
Only five of their games have gone over 2.5 goals this season with over 3.5 a successful bet on just two occasions. Goals are a very rare feature for them this season.
Argyle created next-to-nothing in their last contest. This could be easy be another low event meeting on Wednesday night.
Odds correct at 1400 GMT (21/01/25)
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