In what should be a comfortable England victory in Andorra, Tom Carnduff has found value in two best bets to back.
2pts Under 10 corners at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Jack Grealish to score anytime at 7/4 (Betway)
England are closing in on qualification for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar and should secure another three points with little issue as they travel to Andorra on Sunday night.
The Three Lions ended up comfortable 4-0 winners when the two sides met at Wembley - and while they did struggle to initially breakdown their opponents - it should be noted that a number of changes were made to the team and the 'regulars' coming off the bench secured the result.
To their credit, the hosts come into this game unbeaten in their last two home encounters after a run in which they conceded 14 goals in four defeats - although it should be said it was a goalless draw against Gibraltar and a 2-0 win over San Marino.
There is zero value in looking at the outright market here with England so heavily fancied for victory. Taking the away side with a -3 handicap remains an odds-on price - it's a game where the best options can be found elsewhere.
The first of which actually comes in backing a low corner tally. While England should dominate, they are a side who rarely go high on the count - particularly when featuring in away games.
It's also a factor for Andorra when playing at home. There may have been 16 in their last home outing but that was against San Marino - much closer to what can be described as a competitive game.
Even with that San Marino tally, their average total corner count across their last six home games has been 8.6 - with the majority of games seeing their opponents having more. In three of Andorra's last five at home, they've taken just one corner.
For the Three Lions, the corner count has hit double figures in one of their last ten games outside of England - that was bang-on ten when they played Denmark (they took six).
Across the ten-game period, the average corner count has been 6.5 per away game. At a price of 10/11, there's real value in backing UNDER 10 MATCH CORNERS with little else on offer.
The team news is uncertain here with some rotation likely but England don't tend to make wholesale changes when playing away games during the Gareth Southgate era. They have been to venues where they are expected to win with a number of big hitters involved from the start.
Despite the uncertainty, I'm willing to take a gamble on the 7/4 best price for JACK GREALISH TO SCORE ANYTIME. That's based on some recent comments from the England manager regarding the Manchester City star.
"I think he recognised with us we asked certain things of him, in terms of when he first joined us, the pressing," the Three Lions boss said of Grealish, who made his senior debut in September 2020.
"I think the big challenge with us is he’s 15 games without a goal, so the big challenge is to start registering those numbers that our other wide players have been able to produce over a period of time. There’s no reason he can’t do that."
This game represents a great opportunity to grab that goal, rather than the other fixture against Hungary where rotation is more likely given it is a home fixture. Even if he is on the bench, the last meeting between these two highlights that late goals are a strong possibility.
Ultimately, the odds will prove correct in this game with a comfortable away win on the cards. Southgate has the firepower available to call upon if things aren't clicking but there is a possibility he won't need it if using them from the start.
Instead of looking at England's outright price - where there isn't even value in adding them to an accumulator - the best prices can be found in UNDER CORNERS and GREALISH finally striking.
Score prediction: Andorra 0-4 England (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1225 BST (08/10/21)
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