Newcastle's Alexander Isak celebrates

Alexander Isak: Scouting the lethal Swede Newcastle may be FORCED to sell

Newcastle's injury troubles this season have been unprecedented, but with the crisis easing they are slowly returning to form.

  • Published before Isak scored twice in Newcastle's 5-1 win over Sheff Utd

Alexander Isak came back from injury at the end of February, and his seven goals and one assist in the last since have brought a sense of much needed optimism to St James’ Park.

Isak’s superb double against Tottenham at the weekend, saw him become the first Newcastle player since Alan Shearer to reach the 20-goal mark across all competitions.

There were always huge expectations on the 24-year-old after scoring double-digit goals in the Swedish top flight when he was only 16.

He has now progressed into the ultimate modern-day forward who can slot into just about any side in Europe.

Premier League goalscorer charts

  • Erling Haaland - 21 goals, 5 assists
  • Cole Palmer - 20 goals, 9 assists
  • Ollie Watkins - 19 goals, 12 assists
  • Alexander Isak - 19 goals, 1 assist
  • Dominic Solanke - 18 goals, 3 assists
  • Mohamed Salah - 17 goals, 9 assists
  • Heung-min Son - 16 goals, 9 assists

Premier League Top Goalscorer odds (via Sky Bet)

  • Erling Haaland - 1/2
  • Cole Palmer - 3/1
  • Ollie Watkins - 9/1
  • Alexander Isak - 9/1
  • Dominic Solanke - 20/1
  • Heung-min Son - 28/1
  • Mohamed Salah - 33/1

Alexander Isak Transfer Value - how much is he worth now?

According to our Player Valuation Model, Isak has a current Estimated Transfer Value (ETV) of €51.5 million. This makes him one of the most valuable number 9’s in the Premier League today.

The Magpies took a bit of a risk when they splurged €70 million on a player who had scored only six league goals in the previous season. But that is looking more of a bargain with each passing game.

Isak himself has insisted that he sees his future in Tyneside. With the former Real Sociedad man yet to enter his prime, Eddie Howe would be looking to build the team around him.

Alexander Isak Estimated Transfer Value (ETV)

However, concerns surrounding the club’s compliance with the Premier League’s profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) mean that they might be forced to sell some players to balance the books.

There will be plenty of suitors, with the likes of Arsenal, Tottenham, Paris Saint-Germain, and other top teams reportedly interested. However, a fee closer to €100 million would be needed to test Newcastle’s resolve.

Best finisher in the Premier league?

It often feels like Isak is barely involved in the game. His meagre 5.3 touches in the penalty area and 14.4 touches in the final third this season are lower than many of his peers.

However, what seems to set the top strikers apart is their ability to regularly get on the end of goalscoring opportunities and how effective they are in such situations.

Isak seems to suddenly come alive whenever he does get the ball. His expected goals (xG) figure of 0.81 per 90 is behind only Erling Haaland in the Premier League, highlighting his ability to get into great scoring positions.

But how does he fare when he gets into such positions?

Despite missing a few games this season due to a recurring groin injury, Isak is level with Cole Palmer for the most goals on a 90-minute basis. His 17 league goals come out to 0.87 goals per 90 and is a higher scoring rate than any other striker, even edging out Haaland.

Alexander Isak's shot map

Although the Swede takes a comparatively modest 2.86 shots per 90, he gets an impressive 50% of those on target. This makes his ratio of goals per shot one of the best in the league and underscores just how lethal he has been in front of goal.

Expected goals on target (xGOT) is another metric that assesses the quality of shooting. A higher xGOT value compared to the xG suggests a better finishing ability.

Here, Isak over-performs his xG and demonstrates the ability to execute better quality shots than most players.

His pace and comfort in wider areas of the pitch means that he can play across the front line, where his dribbling stats are more in line with some of the best wingers out there.

Alexander Isak's stats

He is also very effective with his dribbling, and his 0.15 goal-creating actions from take-ons put him in the top 7% of forwards in the English top flight.

What also sets Isak apart is his technical quality, making him a great link-up player. While his defensive numbers are not impressive, his intelligent pressing during the Tottenham game showed that he can also be a great asset out of possession.

With Champions League qualification looking unlikely for Newcastle, Isak might just be tempted to part ways.

After all, his unique profile is an ideal one to lead the line for an elite team.

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