Alex Keble's Premier League match-ups: Can Man United sink any lower?
- Alex Keble (@alexkeble) is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game.
Hudson-Odoi v Chelsea’s new back three
- Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
- Sky Sports Premier League: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- Home 13/2 | Draw 9/2 | Away 1/3
Chelsea’s 5-0 win over West Ham United was notable for Marc Cucurella’s new position as an inverted full-back, a first for Mauricio Pochettino. It seems unlikely a manager who has always relied on flying full-backs will stick with this long-term – not with Malo Gusto and Ian Maatsen his first-choice pair next season – but for now Cucurella will remain in midfield.
That might just work in Forest’s favour. There was no place for Gusto in the rejig because it required a centre-back, Trevor Chalobah, starting at right-back in order to tuck inside and become part of a back three. Without Gusto attacking down the right and pinning Callum Hudson-Odoi, Chelsea are more vulnerable to being hit on the break.
Forest beat Chelsea 1-0 at Stamford Bridge back in September despite holding just 23% of the ball, their second-lowest possession share to date. Steve Cooper’s simplistic counter-attacking approach will surely be copied by Nuno Espirito Santo, with Hudson Odoi – brilliant in the 3-1 win at Sheffield United last weekend – the target for quick breaks down the left flank.
Hudson-Odoi didn’t play in the reverse fixture, although then-new signing Cole Palmer only made an anonymous cameo off the bench. A lot has changed in those eight months and Chelsea finally have some momentum. But their academy product Hudson-Odoi knows this ground well, is in top form, and might just have a free run of the left flank on Saturday.
Casemiro-Evans v Havertz & Saka
- Manchester Utd vs Arsenal
- Sky Sports Main Event: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- Home 13/2 | Draw 9/2 | Away 1/3
The reasons for Arsenal being favourites are too many to list. Indeed it is the cumulative effect of the crisis engulfing Manchester United that makes them so vulnerable at the moment, rather than one, two, three, or 20 problems on and off the field. A fresh wave of rumours about a new manager will not have helped preparations.
Tactically, it’s amazing to think there is an even bigger mismatch than in midfield, where Arsenal have world-class players and Man Utd have empty space.
The problem has been going on for so long it hardly feels worth mentioning anymore, but for one last time: The back four retreat, the forwards press, and astonishingly large gaps opens up in midfield, allowing any team capable of passing through the United forwards to simply walk into the final third.
Declan Rice and Martin Odegaard, with Kai Havertz dropping intelligently to bounce off them, will surely tear the hosts to shreds. But that isn’t the headline.
Instead it is Erik ten Hag’s injury crisis in defence, which means Casemiro and an injured Jonny Evans partner at centre-backs again. The lowlight in the Palace game was the first goal, when Michael Olise wandered into the penalty area without a single United player closing him down.
pic.twitter.com/8qmBUF4SaY Goal number 9️⃣ for Michael Olise this season! 🦅
— Premier League (@premierleague) May 7, 2024
How important has the @CPFC star been in his side's recent resurgence?
The worst-coached team in the Premier League face arguably the best-coached team in the Premier League, and the simple match-up of Casemiro and Evans versus Havertz, Bukayo Saka, and Leandro Trossard (with both Arsenal wingers surely cutting infield to stab at the heart) should seal an easy win for Mikel Arteta and probably an embarrassingly heavy defeat for Erik Ten Hag.
Of course, there is always a chance that something strange will happen. United could sit ultra-deep, minimising space between the lines with a simple backs-to-the-wall strategy, and look to counter-attack through Alejandro Garnacho down Arsenal’s weaker left side. There is a slim chance of that working, especially if the scores are level at the break and nerves set in.
But it really isn’t likely. The Ten Hag era will surely end in ignominy. The 4-0 defeat to Palace was a new nadir – but United can sink lower.
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