Ajax v Liverpool tips: Champions League best bets and preview
Liverpool know this is must-win should they have any chance of topping Group A, but Ajax also have to win on Wednesday. Jake Osgathorpe has the best bets.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Darwin Nunez to score anytime at 6/4 (bet365)
This is a fairly big game in the scope of the group. Ajax have to win to keep their hopes of qualifying alive, and while Liverpool can qualify with a draw, the Reds need to win if they are to stand any chance of topping Group A.
Ajax come into this game having been batter from pillar to post by Napoli over the last few matchdays, losing 10-3 on aggregate and 7.16-3.21 on aggregate xG.
They clearly have defensive vulnerabilities, something Liverpool exploited in the reverse fixture at Anfield (xG: LIV 2.23 - 0.19 AJA), and that coupled with the desperate 'have to win' nature of the hosts should mean we witness a very entertaining game.
Even more so when we factor in Liverpool's own defensive issues, which have seen them concede 2+ xGA in four of their last five Premier League games.
That is despite their last three matches all ending 1-0, so overs backers can count themselves unlucky in all three!
I'm fully expecting the high chance creation and high chance concession nature of Liverpool to continue here, but the underperformance of both the Reds and their opponents won't continue.
Ajax fall into the same bracket as being good in attack and poor at the back, so a high-scoring contest is fancied.
The market is expecting the same though, meaning Over 2.5 Goals is incredibly short at 8/15, and Over 3.5 Goals - while appealing - is too short to represent value at a best price of 13/10.
Instead, when goals are expected, we can take a look at goalscorers, and DARWIN NUNEZ TO SCORE ANYTIME again stands out in the betting.
The Uruguayan secured us profit in Liverpool's last Champions League game at Rangers, though this time he is priced at 6/4 rather than 11/10.
That makes sense given Ajax are a better team than Rangers, but with the goal expectancy so high, the 6/4 looks on the large side.
Nunez didn't play at the weekend after picking up a knock against West Ham last midweek - a game in which he scored the only goal - but Jurgen Klopp is fairly certain the Uruguayan will be good to go for this one.
Across Premier League and Champions League matches this season, Nunez has averaged 0.84 xG per 95 minutes, which is a stellar process.
That means he has a knack of, when he's on the pitch, sniffing out and being on the end of good chances regularly.
For comparison, Mohamed Salah is averaging 0.56 xG/95 across PL and UCL matches and is the bookies favourite at a general price of even money to score in this contest.
That price is closer to what I'd expect for Nunez, so the 6/4 looks a solid value play.
Ajax v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Darwin Nunez to score anytime at 6/4 (bet365)
Score prediction: Ajax 2-3 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 1530 BST (24/10/22)
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